[mknopp]

Until they cut the DRM they ARE going to eventually hit a wall. Just like music did. There will be those who will have no problem with not actually owning their eBooks, and they will drive early adoption. However, eventually they will saturate that market and run into the people who will only buy once they get rid of the DRM. A portion of these people will get their eBooks through illegal means, a portion will cherry-pick the DRM free eBooks for purchase and buy paper books for those that they cannot get without DRM, and a portion of these people will write off all eBooks for paper books until DRM is swept from all eBooks.

As the market becomes more saturated this will become more of an issue as more and more average people figure out that they can't do with eBooks what they have been able to do for centuries with print books. It will also become more of an issue as time moves on and buyers realize that all of their money spent on eBooks with DRM are really more a form of vendor lock-in than anti-piracy.

In many ways, I see DRM in eBooks being more of a drag on adoption than with digital music. With digital music Apple dominated the market with the iPod and because of that the majority of people didn't really notice the DRM. There is no dominate force in eBooks. So, the person who bought the Kindle this time might very well look at the Nook or Sony in a few years when their Kindle finally dies. That will be when they realize that all of their eBooks will not work on that device, and that is when the word of mouth will turn sour rather quickly.

As with music, I expect all sorts of FUD and lies from publishers about the necessity of DRM, but as with music they will eventually have to get rid of DRM. And then, as with music, their eBook sales will blossom again.

That is my gazing into the crystal ball. For what it is worth.