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Kindle to dominate ... check.
Nook to dominate ... jury's out.
Sony to dominate ... please phone home!
Kobo might have an opportunity to carve out a niche: but at $99 not $149. There remains room for barebones attached to an ePub model and library book access. (Woe to Kobo if Amazon strikes a Kindle deal with Overdrive.)
Everyone else ... well, geez, has anyone else sold a million units? 500,000? In many cases, even 50,000? Installed base will matter and it's not surprise that several "established" vendors and several more vapour vendors have collapsed in 2010 -- arguably the first real "Year of the e-reader".
The next battlefield will be books + magazines + newspapers ... and here iPad has a tasty lead. 2011 will bring lower prices on larger e-readers and colour ... plus a deluge of cheaper-than-iPad Android tablets also behaving as credible e-readers and multimedia magazine devices.
Amazon's challenge is to gain enough momentum in 2010 to take it through 2011 as the landscape changes radically again, for the second time in 18 months.
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