Quote:
Originally Posted by Phogg
Blu-Ray was obsolete before it was launched.
I expect it's run will be no more than four years, tops.
Because HD downloads are so prevalent, and because SD cards and thumb drives have zero moving parts, expect even larger laptops to drop optical drives by 2013. SDXC will hold 2 terrabytes of removable storage with minimum heat generation and minimal chance of mechanical failure.
Sony could have launched Blu Ray two or three years earlier, were it not for wasting time in wrangling for exclisivity against the other proposed high definition DVD formats. In this case, time wasted was truely opportunity lost
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Blu-Ray will have a life of at least 10 years. HD downloads are cumbersome at best right now. I have very good connection speeds (much higher than the average US consumer) and I don't bother with anything but semi HD (720p at best) streaming. Downloading isn't even an option and probably wont be for a few more years. After that, near mid-cycle for blu-ray you will start to see where downloads will intersect with physical media.
Also, like hardback books, physical media will never go away. Collectors like me, want special edition physical products for stuff we really like.