[tomsem]

I would like to think we'll see Kindle added to Overdrive eventually. Each party has good reasons to go forward with it, though it appears to be low on Amazon's priorities.

Overdrive already supports Mobipocket and that would translate readily to Kindle since only the DRM is different. Amazon would just need to license Kindle DRM (the way mobipocket DRM is now) and update Kindle software to respect the lending mode DRM scheme. Again, they can just clone what's already done in the Mobipocket software since they own it.

Note that Amazon would not provide content. Content is what Overdrive brings, by negotiating lending rights directly from publishers. So there's no whispernet bandwidth involved unless a library patron chooses to email the content to their Kindle instead of moving it over the wire, in which case Amazon charges the customer for the bandwith used.

In terms of selling more Kindle hardware, there's no reason for Amazon not to do this - library lending is one of the few competitive advantages other ebook readers enjoy vs Kindle. And it would be better to have them read content from non-Amazon sources on a Kindle rather than on a competing device - at least the device is connected to the Kindle Store rather than a competitor's.

Would people buy a Kindle without ever purchasing any content from Amazon? Sure. They do that now - there's enough free, high quality content available to last several lifetimes, as well as sources for paid content. So adding libraries as a source of free (and time-limited) content isn't going to impact Amazon sales that much.

There's also an argument that publicly funded institutions should not be playing 'favorites' in offering ebook lending services. Certainly they should be supporting something with Kindle's current market share. So libraries should feel some motivation to pressure Overdrive into providing content for Kindles, and patrons with Kindles should be demanding such services - their tax dollars are paying for it.

So I would give it a year or two, maybe sooner. Amazon surely understands this requirement well, and will move ahead when it makes the most sense for their business.