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Depends on many circumstances, but I don't see schools moving to e-books for years beyond 2015. I think they're more likely to switch with tablets, rather than e-readers, because e-readers aren't serviceable enough for studying purposes, as various Kindle trials have shown. The cost of tablets will have to come down enough so that schools can afford to hand them out to every student. Public schools cannot demand that parents equip their kids with tablets. Many will not be able to afford them, especially if they have several children. Schools might have to subsidize needy families' purchases, or be sued for in effect denying children an equal education. With many state governments (the source of most school funding) in poor fiscal shape, that's going to be a painful upfront cost. I think that, not technology, will delay the transition.
Of course, private schools can move much more quickly; some have started. Again, we're back to finances determining expectations.
I'm basing this on available knowledge. There are scenarios that could speed the transition. For instance, Apple or other tablet makers might offer to subsidize tablet costs in exchange for exclusive deals, etc. And of course I dunno how quickly tablet costs will drop, depending on how quickly they penetrate the mass market.
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