{"version":1,"tree":{"n":"html","c":[{"n":"head","x":"\n ","l":"\n ","c":[{"n":"title","x":"Desconocido","l":"\n \n "},{"n":"link","l":"\n","a":[["rel","stylesheet"],["type","text/css"],["href","../../stylesheet.css"]]},{"n":"link","l":"\n","a":[["rel","stylesheet"],["type","text/css"],["href","../../page_styles.css"]]}]},{"n":"body","a":[["class","calibre"]],"c":[{"n":"div","x":"| ","a":[["class","calibre_navbar"]],"c":[{"n":"a","x":"Siguiente","l":" | ","a":[["href","javascript:void(0)"],["rel","articlenextlink"],["data-eueMZIbjjuCPX9e9np7aa2","{\"name\": \"feed_12/article_4/index_u43.html\", \"frag\": \"\"}"]]},{"n":"a","x":"Menú de sección","l":" | ","a":[["href","javascript:void(0)"],["data-eueMZIbjjuCPX9e9np7aa2","{\"name\": \"feed_12/index_u18.html\", \"frag\": \"article_3\"}"]]},{"n":"a","x":"Menú principal","l":" | ","a":[["href","javascript:void(0)"],["data-eueMZIbjjuCPX9e9np7aa2","{\"name\": \"index_u63.html\", \"frag\": \"feed_12\"}"]]},{"n":"a","x":"Anterior","l":" | ","a":[["href","javascript:void(0)"],["rel","articleprevlink"],["data-eueMZIbjjuCPX9e9np7aa2","{\"name\": \"feed_12/article_2/index_u62.html\", \"frag\": \"\"}"]]},{"n":"hr","l":"\n","a":[["class","calibre6"]]}]},{"n":"div","a":[["class","calibre-nuked-tag-article"]],"c":[{"n":"div","x":"Battle of the bulge","a":[["class","calibre8"]]},{"n":"h1","x":"Eli Lilly looks set to steal Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss crown","a":[["class","calibre9"]]},{"n":"div","x":"Despite a late start, the American firm is bearing down on its Danish rival","a":[["class","calibre19"]]},{"n":"p","x":"may. 08, 2025 01:49 ","a":[["class","calibre10"]]},{"n":"div","a":[["class","calibre-nuked-tag-article"]],"c":[{"n":"img","a":[["src","images/img1_u71.jpg"],["title","Wegovy injection pens on a desk in sunlight."],["class","calibre3"],["data-calibre-src","feed_12/article_3/images/img1_u71.jpg"]]}]},{"n":"div","a":[["class","calibre11"]]},{"n":"p","a":[["class","calibre12"]],"c":[{"n":"span","x":"B","a":[["data-caps","initial"],["class","calibre13"]]},{"n":"span","x":"EING FIRST ","l":"to market with a drug can be crucial. Eli Lilly is proving that being second but better can also pay. Zepbound, the American firm’s weight-loss jab, was approved in its home country in November 2023, more than two years after Wegovy, made by Novo Nordisk, a Danish rival. Over the following year it yielded $4.9bn in revenue, more than half Wegovy’s $8.2bn. On May 7th Novo cut its sales forecast for 2025, citing “lower-than-planned” growth in weight-loss drugs. Its share price has fallen by a third since the start of 2024; Lilly’s has risen by about as much (see chart 1).","a":[["class","calibre14"]]}]},{"n":"div","a":[["class","calibre-nuked-tag-article"]],"c":[{"n":"img","a":[["src","images/img2_u6.png"],["title",""],["class","calibre3"],["data-calibre-src","feed_12/article_3/images/img2_u6.png"]]}]},{"n":"div","a":[["class","calibre11"]]},{"n":"p","x":"The momentum is now with Lilly. Visible Alpha, a data firm, expects its sales of obesity drugs to overtake Novo’s by 2027 (see chart 2). Lilly’s edge rests on a more effective drug, better execution, keener pricing and a stronger pipeline.","a":[["class","calibre12"]]},{"n":"p","x":"Zepbound and Wegovy belong to a class of treatments known as ","a":[["class","calibre12"]],"c":[{"n":"span","x":"GLP","l":"-1 agonists. First developed for diabetes, they suppress appetite by slowing digestion. Wegovy mimics the ","a":[["class","calibre14"]]},{"n":"span","x":"GLP","l":"-1 hormone; Zepbound targets an additional hormone, ","a":[["class","calibre14"]]},{"n":"span","x":"GIP","l":", thought to enhance weight loss.","a":[["class","calibre14"]]}]},{"n":"p","x":"That dual action matters. In a head-to-head trial conducted by Lilly, patients on Wegovy lost 14% of their body weight; those on Zepbound, 20%. A third of Zepbound users shed at least 25%, twice the share for Wegovy. Prescribing has shifted: in the first quarter of 2025 Zepbound made up 60% of total weight-loss prescriptions in America, and 75% of new ones.","a":[["class","calibre12"]]},{"n":"div","a":[["class","calibre-nuked-tag-article"]],"c":[{"n":"img","a":[["src","images/img3_u5.png"],["title",""],["class","calibre3"],["data-calibre-src","feed_12/article_3/images/img3_u5.png"]]}]},{"n":"div","a":[["class","calibre11"]]},{"n":"p","x":"Lilly has also been quicker to expand production in response to soaring demand. Wegovy was on America’s official shortage list until February; Lilly had sorted out its supply issues by last October. That left Novo more exposed to “compounding” pharmacies, which may copy branded drugs during shortages—at much lower prices. Novo expects revenue to rise now that the Wegovy shortage is resolved and sales of copycats must stop.","a":[["class","calibre12"]]},{"n":"p","x":"Lilly has been faster to find new sales channels, too. In August it began selling low-dose Zepbound vials directly to patients online for $399 (users supply their own syringes). In April it partnered with Hims & Hers, an online pharmacy, to expand sales. Novo followed after.","a":[["class","calibre12"]]},{"n":"p","x":"Price has mattered as well. Many insurers, including Medicare, America’s public-health scheme for the old, do not cover obesity drugs unless tied to another condition. ","a":[["class","calibre12"]],"c":[{"n":"span","x":"IQVIA","l":", a health-data firm, says that more than half of obesity prescriptions in America are paid for out of pocket. Wegovy is listed at around $1,350 a month, Zepbound at about $1,000.","a":[["class","calibre14"]]}]},{"n":"p","x":"And the pipelines? CagriSema, Novo’s prospective Zepbound rival, tied with it in recent trials; few doctors will bother encouraging patients on Lilly’s drug to make the switch. The results wiped 20% off Novo’s share price in a day.","a":[["class","calibre12"]]},{"n":"p","x":"On the next front, oral drugs, Novo has a pill awaiting approval in America. But it is costly to make, with the same active ingredient as Wegovy. Patients must also take it first thing in the morning with minimal water and wait 30 minutes before eating. David Risinger of Leerink Partners, an investment bank, doubts Novo will launch it globally. Lilly’s pill, orforglipron, is cheaper to make and can be taken without fasting. Patrik Jonsson, head of Lilly’s weight-loss division, says it has “millions of tablets” available, ahead of its approval, which is expected next year. Analysts reckon orforglipron will provide $16bn in annual sales by 2030.","a":[["class","calibre12"]]},{"n":"p","x":"Both firms face trouble ahead. Donald Trump’s tariffs, though on hold for now, could hurt. Neither makes its entire American supply locally. Last year Novo’s parent agreed to pay $16.5bn for Catalent, an American manufacturer, to boost its output in the country. In February Lilly pledged to invest $27bn in production at home. Still, Mr Jonsson points out that “reshoring takes time”. A factory takes at least three to four years to build.","a":[["class","calibre12"]]},{"n":"p","x":"Battles over price regulation in America, the largest market, are another concern. Mr Trump wants to match prices abroad, which are typically lower. Medicare, which covers 66m Americans, has also dropped a plan to reimburse obesity drugs.","a":[["class","calibre12"]]},{"n":"p","x":"Even so, both firms can look forward to fat profits. More than 100 companies are developing weight-loss drugs, but for now it is a duopoly. Analysts expect that by 2030 Lilly will have 47% of a $90bn-plus market, to Novo’s 40%. And Denmark’s former star still has time to shape up. ","a":[["class","calibre12"]],"c":[{"n":"span","x":"■"}]},{"n":"p","a":[["class","calibre12"]],"c":[{"n":"i","x":"To stay on top of the biggest stories in business and technology, sign up to the ","a":[["class","calibre18"]],"c":[{"n":"a","x":"Bottom Line","l":", our weekly subscriber-only newsletter.","a":[["href","https://www.economist.com/newsletters/the-bottom-line"]]}]}]}]},{"n":"div","x":"\n","a":[["class","calibre_navbar"]],"c":[{"n":"hr","l":"\n","a":[["class","calibre6"]]},{"n":"p","x":"This article was downloaded by ","l":"\n","a":[["class","calibre16"]],"c":[{"n":"strong","x":"calibre","l":" from ","a":[["class","calibre13"]]},{"n":"a","x":"https://www.economist.com/business/2025/05/07/eli-lilly-looks-set-to-steal-novo-nordisks-weight-loss-crown","a":[["href","https://www.economist.com/business/2025/05/07/eli-lilly-looks-set-to-steal-novo-nordisks-weight-loss-crown"],["rel","calibre-downloaded-from"]]}]},{"n":"br","a":[["class","calibre-nuked-tag-article"]]},{"n":"br","l":" | ","a":[["class","calibre-nuked-tag-article"]]},{"n":"a","x":"Menú de sección","l":" | ","a":[["href","javascript:void(0)"],["data-eueMZIbjjuCPX9e9np7aa2","{\"name\": \"feed_12/index_u18.html\", \"frag\": \"article_3\"}"]]},{"n":"a","x":"Menú principal","l":" | ","a":[["href","javascript:void(0)"],["data-eueMZIbjjuCPX9e9np7aa2","{\"name\": \"index_u63.html\", \"frag\": \"feed_12\"}"]]}]}]}]},"ns_map":["http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"]}