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Old 03-24-2005, 07:49 PM   #1
Colin Dunstan
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palmOne stock - a hidden long-term gem?

Motley Fool (via Yahoo) is analysing the palmOne stock and comparing its relative value to other tech companies. There are some interesting facts about palmOne:

- palmOne gave short-term earnings guidance well below the analysts' expections
- as a consequence, palmOne stock dived about 10% in one day
- sustainable competitive advantage: palmOne makes great products that you have experienced as a consumer
- valuation: palmOne P/E is 13x, well below sector average of 24x; in other words, palmOne stock currently sells cheap!

Is palmOne a promising prospect? I can't answer that question. But by looking past the short term, focusing on what's important, and applying a few of the time-tested frameworks (e.g. EV/FCF, projected earnings growth, ROE, insider ownership), you'll be a lot closer to finding out for yourself.
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Old 03-25-2005, 10:34 AM   #2
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PalmOne stock is prone to big swings based on news available at the moment. Just a few months back it was trading at over $33, now it's at $26. And unlike old bellwhethers, the p/e ratio doesn't mean much, one bad release and the company's toast. Remember, PalmOne does not have unlimited cash like Microsoft who can go three tries (IE, PPC) before succeeding.

Currently, the Treo line is hot, but what products lies ahead, that's what matters and that's will determine if the current price is cheap. Remember the m505 fiasco that almost sink the company, that's a reminder that PalmOne is only as good as its next release. PalmOne is a one-product company, so if smartphones (or PDA) loses its appeal, the company has little else to fall back on...unlike companies such as Nokia, Siemens, Sony, or HP.

Disclaimer: This is a layman's assessment and does not own any stock in any of the companies mentioned. I am not liable for any losses that any investor may incur as a result of reading this post.

Read too much financial reports (apparently)...
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