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Old 12-26-2009, 04:54 PM   #1
Steven Lyle Jordan
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2010: Rise of the e-book, fall of the Indies?

Pundits and consumers alike are predicting that 2010 will be "the year of the e-book," the year in which the publishers and device makers all finally get their acts together, and e-books become major-league successes on the commercial stage. But as the big publishers finally jump onto the e-book bandwagon, will they shove the independent authors and small independents off?

Indie authors used the e-book to get a market presence, when the publishers would not let them into the printed book industry. E-book tools made it easy for almost anyone to create and sell e-books in major and minor sales outlets, including Amazon. But those indies were already pushing and jostling each other, just to be noticed. And as the big publishers arrive, with their big advertising budgets, they could essentially throw a big concealing blanket over the little guys, and use them as a platform to stand on and hawk their own wares.

What do you think? Can individual authors and indie publishing houses continue to get noticed when the big publishers begin to fill the stage? Will the big publishers' advertising budgets overwhelm the indies? Will the sites that promote indie authors and publishers be replaced with publisher-supported portals pushing everyone to Dan Brown and Stephen King? Will indie authors find themselves in the same position they were in before e-books: Sign on with the big boys, or remain forever obscure?

Or will indies find another way to distinguish themselves? Will they maintain visibility next to the Big Pubs and continue to be viable in the e-book market?
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Old 12-27-2009, 05:28 AM   #2
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I don't see why big publishers entering ebook market would have a detrimental effect on indies.
As you said:
Quote:
Indie authors used the e-book to get a market presence, when the publishers would not let them into the printed book industry
The publishers still will not be interested in indies. So, for indies, no major changes. Maybe a few cons and pros. Such as, more actual ebooks will flood the market and indies might be lost in the sea...but is not it the case right now when anyone who can type thinks they are geniuses and publish themselves and a reader must wade through a lot of rubbish to find a really good indie writer? Also, I believe indies are targetting a certain audience. Readers who are prepared to risk their time and read unknowns. Advertisemnts of big guys will not affect these readers. The audience will not change or grow smaller with big publishers coming about. On the other hand, big publishers have a better chance to make ebooks mainstream, thus attract more people who read ebooks, thus more chance somebody would notice an indie author, somebody who would never do it before, because they didn't read/knew anything about ebooks.

Last edited by astra; 12-27-2009 at 05:31 AM.
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Old 12-27-2009, 09:02 AM   #3
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I wouldn't be worried about the audience itself "changing"... but that they will be so heavily exposed to Big Pub advertising and product, which will be right out front at every major books site, that they won't venture past it to find the indie content (not too different from what happens at major bookstores, in fact), and in time, may stop looking.

I also don't expect Big Pub to be interested in indies... they'll be too busy trying to crowd them out to sell their own products.
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Old 12-27-2009, 10:06 AM   #4
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I think it will get a *little* easier for indies, and potentially easier for authors, depending on what happens with reading devices.

If publishers and/or booksellers try to close devices, so that they can only read "their" books, then that would be bad news for indies and authors. Fortunately, I've not noticed and devices that are totally closed (especially with the likes of the excellent calibre -- thanks Kovid).

Given a reasonably wide range of devices, then authors and indies can make their writings available to these without the costs of printing -- essentially that cost is moved from the author/publisher.

Mainstream publisher can, as you put it, blanket push books, just as music publishers do. But just as web distribution and community/social websites make it possible for new bands and groups to come to the fore independently of the publishers, I think the same will happen with books. There are various authors (yourself included) that I've stumbled across here, and then gone on to get books (or add to my to buy list) -- that was not really possible before the arrival of the liseuse/reading device, or at least in the same way -- if you didn't have a printed book I wouldn't read very much as I didn't (and don't) find reading on a computer screen pleasant...
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Old 12-27-2009, 01:45 PM   #5
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I think there is a big opportunity for Indie's in 2010 and beyond. Not all Indie's but those that find a model that works to grabs the potential market. I can see specialty blogs becoming more important where people review books from a specific genre and people browse them for book recommendations. If they convert this to a small "ebook publishing house" they can create a market.

My experience is that Indie's want to actually sell ebooks so they sell in multiple formats, at reasonable prices and without restrictions. I've set a goal to read 6 new Indie authors next year and to continue to buy from the Indie author's I've found.

The big publishing houses are in for more trouble. All they are doing is putting up barriers to people buying the ebooks. They're slow to react and small specialty publishers have a big opportunity. How big was Amazon before the internet? How long did it take for the publishers to react? Have they yet?

I'm confused what massive marketing that you see from them? The only large scale advertising campaign I've seen from them have been for established author's like Dan Brown.

I see that they have established relationships with book reviewers in newspapers and magazines that get selected books reviewed, but you've seen what's happening to newspapers and magazines. This is diminishing value.

I see that they have established relationships with bookstores to get premium shelf space to promote new books, but I see this continuing to shrink in value.

They have connections in TV and radio to get authors interviews on shows but they've been killing this for ebooks by trying to charge insulting prices and now delaying availability. In the last year I've heard half a dozen authors interviewed and been interested enough to try to buy the book but I didn't because of the price.

They have existing contracts with established and well known authors that are guaranteed to sell and that's the only thing that will keep them alive. When those authors start going to freelance editors and publishing themselves the large publishing houses will disappear.
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Old 12-27-2009, 02:53 PM   #6
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I don't know exactly how much bearing this has on the conversation, but...
I am acquainted with two published mystery authors. One currently has a contract with a major publisher, one is currently not under contract, but has had two series published with a major publisher. They want to "merge" two of their series. (One series from each author, combining the two main characters from each). Well, they think that no major publisher is going to touch that with a ten foot pole. So, once the book(s) are finished, they plan to self-publish via Amazon and Smashwords.
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Old 12-27-2009, 03:05 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Jordan View Post
I wouldn't be worried about the audience itself "changing"... but that they will be so heavily exposed to Big Pub advertising and product, which will be right out front at every major books site, that they won't venture past it to find the indie content (not too different from what happens at major bookstores, in fact), and in time, may stop looking.
That's my point.
Certain readers are already exposed to Big Pub with printed books but still choose indies ebooks. They know what they are looking for when they make this decision. On the other hand people who are not into ebooks right now, they have no idea about indies (so right now indies do not have their attention anyway) but when they will be introduced to ebooks by Big Pub they might inadvertently come across something new, aka indie, and decide to give it a go?
Well, it is just a pure speculation on my part but I do believe that if Big Pub attracts more readers to ebooks then there are more chances for indies to be exposed than as it is right now...mostly for ebooks geeks only.
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Old 12-27-2009, 03:28 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by phenomshel View Post
I don't know exactly how much bearing this has on the conversation, but...
I am acquainted with two published mystery authors. One currently has a contract with a major publisher, one is currently not under contract, but has had two series published with a major publisher. They want to "merge" two of their series. (One series from each author, combining the two main characters from each). Well, they think that no major publisher is going to touch that with a ten foot pole. So, once the book(s) are finished, they plan to self-publish via Amazon and Smashwords.
Can I ask who? I'm on a big mystery kick right now and am trying to find more to read
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Old 12-27-2009, 03:54 PM   #9
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Can I ask who? I'm on a big mystery kick right now and am trying to find more to read
Sure, check your PM's It's not that I mind sharing the information, I just don't know how much the authors themselves want known about it.
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Old 12-27-2009, 04:04 PM   #10
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I am a regular at a jazz forum. Whenever a jazz book title is released, there is much discussion about it. I don't think that anyone cares who the publisher is.

There are countless internet forums devoted to hobbies and interests. I don't see why authors and indie publishers would be less able to reach a book's niche market than a big publisher could. On these forums, intelligent discussion is more valuable than expensive advertising.
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Old 12-27-2009, 04:13 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by astra View Post
On the other hand people who are not into ebooks right now, they have no idea about indies (so right now indies do not have their attention anyway) but when they will be introduced to ebooks by Big Pub they might inadvertently come across something new, aka indie, and decide to give it a go?
Inadvertently? That may be a very narrow window of opportunity... and narrowing all the time.

For example, new readers will go to Amazon.com and see ads for the Big Pub books first, or more likely exclusively. Pick up a Nook, and in the bottom color screen you see ads for major novels, DVDs, etc. How many indie authors are going to appear in those high-visibility areas? Not many. How many people will go looking for them, when all of this Big Pub material is being pushed at them as soon as they arrive? People go for the easy fix, and most of them are likely to not look much further than the first phananx of products they see.

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Originally Posted by Barcey View Post
I think there is a big opportunity for Indie's in 2010 and beyond. Not all Indie's but those that find a model that works to grabs the potential market. I can see specialty blogs becoming more important where people review books from a specific genre and people browse them for book recommendations. If they convert this to a small "ebook publishing house" they can create a market...

I'm confused what massive marketing that you see from them? The only large scale advertising campaign I've seen from them have been for established author's like Dan Brown.
So far, there has not been much... because so far, Big Pub hasn't committed itself to e-book sales. But as they enter the market, they're going to make every effort to make sure they make some money off of it, which means sales.

Want an example? Go to B&N's front page and look at the items that scroll by in front of you. Those aren't indie titles there, those are Big Pub products, and you'll see them first.

Yes, blogs and portals will help indies get web-time... but only if customers use them, as opposed to going to B&N or Amazon and just picking the first of the advertised items they are shown. Will the blogs and portals be enough? Will casual readers use them?
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Old 12-27-2009, 11:46 PM   #12
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The below is my rambling throw of a couple of cents.
Quote:
What do you think? Can individual authors and indie publishing houses continue to get noticed when the big publishers begin to fill the stage?
* I was exposed to indie authors through this forum's members.
* I discover author blogs and websites through this forum.
* I rarely, if ever, do random searching for websites or blogs of authors to learn what is out there. My daily life is full already, so I've found one or two places to check in and learn about ebook authors. That is why the presence of authors on forums attract my attention... I'm already on the forum. Also, other forum members make recommendations that I will read and investigate.

So, drawn from the above:
* Authors who spend time on various forums attract my attention which may result in a purchase and then a word of mouth recommendation to others.
* An author who is a continued positive presence on various forums attracts a loyal following.
* A much lower ebook price than other publishers will definitely make the attraction greater and less of a risk to try that new author. Also, a more reasonable price makes me more willing to continue to buy any author.

Quote:
Will the big publishers' advertising budgets overwhelm the indies?
Doesn't that happen in any market for any product? Now days, with the internet, a large budget may not always be necessary for exposure. I think a large chunk of time getting (and continuing) the exposure on forums, review sites/blogs, you tube, twitter (follow and tweet others), etc. is going to be what is needed if a large advertising budget is not there.

Every time you (an author) posts, you are creating that exposure to the public. You are advertising with your name, avatar, posted comments, and / or signature with links.

Quote:
Will the sites that promote indie authors and publishers be replaced with publisher-supported portals pushing everyone to Dan Brown and Stephen King?
Possibly, if they feel it is advantageous for them to do so.

Quote:
Will indie authors find themselves in the same position they were in before e-books: Sign on with the big boys, or remain forever obscure?
Who knows how long indie authors will have an ebook advantage to inform the public about? Create that advantage with non DRM'd ebooks at great prices and let everyone know about it (over and over again, wherever and whenever you can). I'd rather buy from an indie author site where the author gets more of the money than a big publisher.

Sincerely, An "Average Jane" consumer submitting her view
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Old 12-30-2009, 03:55 PM   #13
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I have a simple view. No I don't think it will change much for the Indie author.

The push by the big publishing houses will be to people that have been out of reach to the indie author. If we are lucky a small percentage of the 'new' ebook users will come to places like MR and will be exposed to a larger and more varied 'new' group of indie authors.

All in all I think it can be nothing but good for all of us.

Just one more thought - think what MySpace did for the indie band - music production is no longer the pure field of the big boys anymore. MySpace and the like have put the music back in the hands of the musicians, so here is hoping.................

(PS I used to own and run a small recording studio so this isn't a totally naive statement)

Last edited by Peverel; 12-30-2009 at 03:59 PM.
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Old 12-31-2009, 04:36 AM   #14
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Quite honestly, Steve, I don't think big publishers will be the threat to small but selective and editorially driven independent houses like mine and competent and skilled self-publishers like yourself that a deluge of nonsense books will be. Ease of 'writing' and 'publishing' these days means that the market is already swamped with rubbish and it's becoming more and more difficult for a browser to sort the wheat from the chaff. But I guess, that's literary democracy for ya. Cheers. Neil
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