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Old 09-29-2009, 01:40 PM   #1
DMcCunney
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Digital will overtake print in 2018, says FBF survey

http://www.thebookseller.com/news/98...urvey.html.rss
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Old 09-29-2009, 01:49 PM   #2
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How much money are they willing to bet on that?

- Ahi
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Old 09-29-2009, 01:59 PM   #3
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How much money are they willing to bet on that?

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I've no idea. I'd like more detail on exactly who was surveyed and what questions were asked.
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Old 09-29-2009, 02:13 PM   #4
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I've no idea. I'd like more detail on exactly who was surveyed and what questions were asked.
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I cannot imagine any research/survey process that could yield results any better than complete guesswork... unless of course said process involved a time machine.

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Old 09-29-2009, 03:29 PM   #5
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It all depends on whether you believe in "the wisdom of crowds".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

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I cannot imagine any research/survey process that could yield results any better than complete guesswork... unless of course said process involved a time machine.
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Old 09-29-2009, 03:44 PM   #6
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I cannot imagine any research/survey process that could yield results any better than complete guesswork... unless of course said process involved a time machine.
The survey was taken at the Frankfurt Book Fair, which is that main event of its type in the world, and the people surveyed were in the industry, so theoretically they'd make informed guesses.

We'll see.
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Old 09-29-2009, 03:45 PM   #7
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It all depends on whether you believe in "the wisdom of crowds".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
With regards to predicting the future adoption of a currently fledgling and arguably still exceedingly immature technology... I believe nothing can do so with anything better than random accuracy.

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Old 09-29-2009, 04:04 PM   #8
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2018 is the year the US starts getting new, non-gov't public domain works. Unless, of course, The Mouse plans another assault on Congress. (I've no idea if they think that's related.)

The article very carefully doesn't define its terms. Does "digital sales will overtake sales of traditional books" mean "number of digital books will be higher than number of print books sold?" or $value of digital books will exceed print books?

Of course, they're talking about NEW books, not the books sold in secondhand stores and at yard sales. Otherwise it'd be an even more ridiculous statement.

"majority of responses came from Europe (74%)"--meaning they're basing their results on data with very little connection to the US publishing industry. I understand the statement, "Digital book sales in Europe will outstrip print sales" is nowhere near as impressive a statement, but would make more sense, given their starting information.
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Old 09-30-2009, 01:03 AM   #9
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In 1998 some companies released these goofy untenable devices for playing music that the user had to process files for on a computer, which very few people owned. Some lunatics thought that they might make money transferring processed files over phone lines - if you can believe that.

Naturally this stupid "Digital music" idea died the natural death everyone knew it would.
Few people today even remember that MP3 thing, thus idiots keep treading down that same path, all unawares...

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