2006 a breakout year for e-books?

[Alexander Turcic]

Roger Sperberg has good faith that next year will mark the breakout year for e-books. Three preconditions are likely to be met by then, he argues:

• the emergence of suitable e-book reading devices
• publishers releasing e-books while agreeing on a DRM solution that also works for readers
• the emergence of a sophisticated distribution system for libraries who lend e-books.

For more, read Roger's editorial over at Teleread.org.

[rlauzon]

Originally Posted by Alexander

the emergence of suitable e-book reading devices

This won't happen next year - or it has already happened - depending on your point of view. I've been reading eBooks on my Palm for quite some time now.

But I still don't see any good, relatively cheap, dedicated eBook readers available.

Originally Posted by Alexander

publishers releasing e-books while agreeing on a DRM solution that also works for readers

Won't happen next year. Won't happen at all.

For DRM to work, it will first have to lock the eBook to the person. Not to the device, reader, credit card, etc. I see this as a wonderful use of public key encryption - that the gov't definately doesn't like us to have.

But the main issue is resale value. When I buy a $30 book, part of the value I get is resale. If I don't like it, get tired of it, etc., I can sell the book at a partial cost. DRM takes this away. So the price of a DRMed eBook will have to be significantly lowered.

On top of that, we realize that an eBook costs much less than a paper book in every way. There is simply no justification for an eBook to cost even close what a paper version does - especially if the reader is shouldering the burden of purchasing a reader for it.

The bottom line is that between DRM and a demand for low prices, the value of an eBook will be so close to nothing as to be nothing.

Originally Posted by Alexander

the emergence of a sophisticated distribution system for libraries who lend e-books.

Since eBooks have low value, no such system needs to be created. If such a system was created, the DRM used by the system would effectively block most users from using it.

This is all assuming, of course, that the DRM system isn't cracked 24 hours after coming out.