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Old 08-11-2008, 02:04 PM   #16
DMcCunney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daffy4u View Post
Oh that TechCruch is at it again.
I posted a reference to that article previously. One respondent claimed communication from a friend in China that worked in the factory that made the Kindles, and said 34,000 had actually been manufactured.

I suspect the truth is somewhere between.
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Old 08-11-2008, 02:06 PM   #17
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Unless we have real numbers, all this speculation is JUST A FREAKING GUESS!
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Old 08-11-2008, 02:21 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by DMcCunney View Post
I posted a reference to that article previously. One respondent claimed communication from a friend in China that worked in the factory that made the Kindles, and said 34,000 had actually been manufactured.

I suspect the truth is somewhere between.
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Yeah, I read that comment. Personally, I didn't think all that much of the 34,000 number ... simply because I've seen one too many Kindles out here in the middle of absolutely nowhere.

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Originally Posted by JSWolf View Post
Unless we have real numbers, all this speculation is JUST A FREAKING GUESS!
Yes, yes, Jon .... calm down, have some coffee and a doughnut.
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Old 08-11-2008, 06:04 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by RickyMaveety View Post
Yeah, I read that comment. Personally, I didn't think all that much of the 34,000 number ... simply because I've seen one too many Kindles out here in the middle of absolutely nowhere.
And other people have seen almost no Kindles in big places. Sorry, but this proves nothing.
Here's another set of numbers to add to the mystery
http://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24881
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Old 08-11-2008, 06:13 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by smariner View Post
... leading the analyst to predict that the Kindle "is becoming the iPod of the book world."
I will be impressed only when a leading dough maker proclaims "Kindle is the next sliced bread of the non-baked goods world!"
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Old 08-11-2008, 06:19 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by igorsk View Post
And other people have seen almost no Kindles in big places. Sorry, but this proves nothing.
Here's another set of numbers to add to the mystery
http://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24881
Hmmm .... unless it proves that people in the middle of nowhere are a lot more literate and technosavvy than I thought.
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Old 08-11-2008, 06:26 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by RickyMaveety View Post
Yeah, I read that comment. Personally, I didn't think all that much of the 34,000 number ... simply because I've seen one too many Kindles out here in the middle of absolutely nowhere.
I concur.

Quote:
Yes, yes, Jon .... calm down, have some coffee and a doughnut.
<chuckle>

Some responses will be positively Pavlovian. Make a post that can be interpreted as Amazon "winning" with the Kindle, and watch the agonized responses from Sony owners. Make a post that can be considered critical of the Kindle, and watch the outraged Kindle owners reach for the tar and feathers...

Since we not only have the Kindle and the Sony PRS, but also have the Bookeen Cybook, the Hanlin V3, the EB1150, the ILiad, and several other things out there, I'd call the reader market increasingly healthy, thank you, and poised to do better. At some point there may be a shakeout, and manufacturers exiting the ebook reader space, but I don't think we're anywhere near that as yet.

If people will swear off treating comments critical of their chosen reader as also critical of them for having chosen it, this particular little section of the asylum will be a happier place.
______
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Last edited by DMcCunney; 08-11-2008 at 06:33 PM.
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Old 08-11-2008, 10:27 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by DMcCunney View Post
I posted a reference to that article previously. One respondent claimed communication from a friend in China that worked in the factory that made the Kindles, and said 34,000 had actually been manufactured.

I suspect the truth is somewhere between.
______
Dennis
Given that there are more than 4000 reviews of the Kindle on amazon.com -- I would guess that there are more than 34,000 Kindles out there (typically, less than 10% of the buyers write feedback). But, who knows? some non-buyers might have left feedback as well?
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Old 08-11-2008, 10:52 PM   #24
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Hmmm, well, either this analyst has some data we don't (possible) or this is a bit of guessing that's manipulating stock:

http://www.thestreet.com/s/kindle-re...-amazons-stock

Quote:
SAN FRANCISCO - Shares of Amazon(AMZN) got a boost on Monday on speculation that its Kindle electronic book reader would be a big hit among consumers.

The stock was soaring 9.5% to $88.12 in recent trading, after Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney put out a note estimating Kindle's unit sales to be twice as high as his original assumption for 2008, to 380,000 from 190,000.
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Old 08-11-2008, 10:52 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smariner View Post
Given that there are more than 4000 reviews of the Kindle on amazon.com -- I would guess that there are more than 34,000 Kindles out there (typically, less than 10% of the buyers write feedback). But, who knows? some non-buyers might have left feedback as well?
Or maybe more than 10% of the buyers felt impelled to leave feedback.

Who knows?

Personally, I think the question of how many Kindles have been sold is fundamentally meaningless. The question is "Is the Kindle selling well enough that Amazon will continue to sell and support it, and make content available for it?" Thus far, the answer is yes.

The issue for both Amazon and Sony is that they are big outfits that need a significant ROI to justify doing something. Senior management are essentially custodians of Other People's Money, with a responsibility to invest funds where they will get the best return. The issue is one of opportunity cost: what might this money return if invested elsewhere? Could it make more money invested elsewhere than where it currently is?

Sony killed off the Clie PDA line, even though it was profitable, because they thought they could make more money investing the funds elsewhere, so there's a question in the back of various minds about Sony's commitment to the PRS. Similar questions can be raised about Amazon. They haven't released any actual numbers (and Bezos was remarkably opaque about it when the issue came up in the last Amazon quarterly conference call with analysts covering them), and we have no idea what targets they have and what they consider success.

We can assume that someone like Bookeen will be very happy with sales that Amazon would consider a dismal failure -- they are a small company with less overhead who doesn't need big numbers to make a go of it.

I consider speculations about how many Kindles were sold about equivalent to reading tea leaves. It may be an amusing way to pass some time, but I'd keep the 10lb sack of salt handy to take with any results.
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Old 08-11-2008, 10:58 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by DMcCunney View Post
I concur.


<chuckle>

Some responses will be positively Pavlovian. Make a post that can be interpreted as Amazon "winning" with the Kindle, and watch the agonized responses from Sony owners. Make a post that can be considered critical of the Kindle, and watch the outraged Kindle owners reach for the tar and feathers...

Since we not only have the Kindle and the Sony PRS, but also have the Bookeen Cybook, the Hanlin V3, the EB1150, the ILiad, and several other things out there, I'd call the reader market increasingly healthy, thank you, and poised to do better. At some point there may be a shakeout, and manufacturers exiting the ebook reader space, but I don't think we're anywhere near that as yet.

If people will swear off treating comments critical of their chosen reader as also critical of them for having chosen it, this particular little section of the asylum will be a happier place.
______
Dennis
Agreed. Jeeze ... I'm agreeing with you a lot these days. I for one don't recall ever stating anything critical of the Sony readers ... now Sony, oh my yes, don't get me started ... but the reader?? Nope ... looks like a very nice device. I just happened to like the Kindle better, so I bought two, and I may buy a third.


Quote:
Originally Posted by smariner View Post
Given that there are more than 4000 reviews of the Kindle on amazon.com -- I would guess that there are more than 34,000 Kindles out there (typically, less than 10% of the buyers write feedback). But, who knows? some non-buyers might have left feedback as well?
And, I'm a great example of that. Owner of two, never posted a comment on Amazon.com about the product. Not a single comment, and I'm a big fan. Actually a HUGE fan.

I'm just sayin' that 34,000 and it just happens that nine other people in two teensy tiny little towns in Texas have bought the same device?? Not to mention the people who have Sony readers ... I'm just talking about Kindles here. Well, when you figure that there are (I think this is the correct number) 270,000,000 people in the United States and only (let's see .... 1,500 people in Horseshoe Bay and about 5,000 in Marble Falls) 6,500 people in my general area ... well, either we are overloaded with amazingly erudite people, or there are more Kindles out there than the gentleman from China estimates.

Of course it's all guessing ... it's no more specific a number than someone trying to figure out how many inhabited planets are out there aside from this little blue marble. But, that's what people do ... they try to fill in places where there are gaps in their knowledge. They guess.

There you go ... I think I've just made a great contribution to science. They used to refer to humans as the "tool using ape." Then, they discovered that other apes use tools. After that, it was the "ape that uses language." But, wait ... turns out that other apes may not have the facility of speech, but they can use language. So how about ... "Man ... the ape that makes stupid guesses."

Should work until the chimps and gorillas get hold of Kindles and start wondering about how many are actually being marketed. Then, there goes another great theory in the toilet.
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Old 08-11-2008, 11:02 PM   #27
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Hmmm, well, either this analyst has some data we don't (possible) or this is a bit of guessing that's manipulating stock:

http://www.thestreet.com/s/kindle-re...-amazons-stock
I saw a report on that elsewhere. He may have data we don't. Or he may be analyzing Amazon's quarterly numbers, factoring out revenues and expenses that are definitely not Kindle related, and making guesses based on what remains.

As I said previously, I don't think how many Amazon sold is meaningful. What's important is "Are they selling enough that they will continue to make and sell them?" As long as that answer is yes, exact numbers are details unimportant to the average Kindle owner.
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Old 08-11-2008, 11:24 PM   #28
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Agreed. Jeeze ... I'm agreeing with you a lot these days. I for one don't recall ever stating anything critical of the Sony readers ... now Sony, oh my yes, don't get me started ... but the reader?? Nope ... looks like a very nice device. I just happened to like the Kindle better, so I bought two, and I may buy a third.
Thinking about it, responses here on MR may be skewed a bit. I haven't tried to keep count, but my impression is that most folks participating here heard about ebook readers, realized there were more than one, found out about MR, and came here to get information to help them make a choice. They specified what they wanted to do with the reader and what sort of content they needed to read, and got advice about which reader best fit their requirements and budget. They made an informed decision, and were more likely to be happy with what they got. I haven't seen too many of the "Oh, gee, I just got this ebook reader and I don't know anything about it and what do I do next?" sorts of queries.

Quote:
And, I'm a great example of that. Owner of two, never posted a comment on Amazon.com about the product. Not a single comment, and I'm a big fan. Actually a HUGE fan.
It works for you.

Quote:
I'm just sayin' that 34,000 and it just happens that nine other people in two teensy tiny little towns in Texas have bought the same device?? Not to mention the people who have Sony readers ... I'm just talking about Kindles here. Well, when you figure that there are (I think this is the correct number) 270,000,000 people in the United States and only (let's see .... 1,500 people in Horseshoe Bay and about 5,000 in Marble Falls) 6,500 people in my general area ... well, either we are overloaded with amazingly erudite people, or there are more Kindles out there than the gentleman from China estimates.
The latter, I think. But the fact that all those folks in your area bought Kindles is a testament to Amazon's marketing power. Lots of folks visit Amazon daily, and see the push for the Kindle, and see the volume of content available for it, and the ease of getting more at prices less than elsewhere.

Sony is playing catchup there, with deals with retailers like Borders in the US and Waterstone in the UK to provide additional sales channels. It's not like most folks browse the Sony site every day...

Quote:
There you go ... I think I've just made a great contribution to science. They used to refer to humans as the "tool using ape." Then, they discovered that other apes use tools. After that, it was the "ape that uses language." But, wait ... turns out that other apes may not have the facility of speech, but they can use language. So how about ... "Man ... the ape that makes stupid guesses."
I have a different take. I sometimes call man "the rationalizing animal". Most of what passes for rational thought consists of coming up with good reasons after the fact why what we already decided to do was not only a good idea but the best move under the circumstances. It certainly doesn't happen before the decision is made...
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