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Old 07-02-2008, 09:01 AM   #1
Alexander Turcic
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The Kindle's success - all bluff?

Alright, a statement we've already heard before with no meaningful results, so take it with a grain of salt. Or a whole salt lick, actually. This time around, there is this guy from Seeking Alpha (a well-respected financial blog network), Prashanth Cherukuri, who makes no secret of being short in Amazon stock (i.e. betting on a decline to get a lot of money out of it), and who believes that everything we've heard so far about the Kindle's success is nothing but a fairy tale.

Quote:
It is very obvious that Amazon's Kindle is a huge flop. In six months of traveling, I am yet to see a single person on any bus, train or plane with a Kindle in their hands. Contrast that with the iPod or iPhone or even the Sansa, where people can actually be seen using them everywhere.

Kindle isn't going to take off. Yes, there will always be technophiles and other early adopters that get one because it's new or somehow cool. But regardless of whether the Kindle succeeds or fizzles, the buzz-induced sales ramp will look about the same at this early a stage.
Find the full article over here.

Related: Amazon Kindle projections overrated?
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Old 07-02-2008, 09:06 AM   #2
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I'm a bit sick of all these statements about the Kindle sales, potential success, potential flop...
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Old 07-02-2008, 09:11 AM   #3
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So he hasn't seen anyone with the Kindle during his traveling? Big deal. Perhaps it is because the Kindle is less of a travel device than the iPod. -- Personally, I read most of my books at home, sitting on a sofa or in the garten. And I promise you: this guy will never see me with a Kindle in my hands... because he will never be near my house.
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Old 07-02-2008, 09:22 AM   #4
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Not everyone has their reader with them and pulls it out all the time in public. There are lots of people who don't sit on public transport with a book (for example).
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Old 07-02-2008, 09:33 AM   #5
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Quote:
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Not everyone has their reader with them and pulls it out all the time in public. There are lots of people who don't sit on public transport with a book (for example).
Maybe its because the kindle doesn't look cool from the casing. I like to show of with my iLiad to impress the chicks

Successrate? Hmm... well don't ask...
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Old 07-02-2008, 09:40 AM   #6
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Successrate? Hmm... well don't ask...
Hmmm At least from an aesthetic point of view, the iLiad is certainly a head turner (if you don't believe it, try to impress a girl with the Kindle...).

Maybe you just haven't met the right one yet...

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Old 07-02-2008, 10:58 AM   #7
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Well I have to admit that from the author's perspective and his own measuring unit ($ sales) he is 100% correct. Kindle won't generate any sort of significant revenue or profits for Amazon any time soon.

Also notice the comparison to iPod! His expectations are for millions of devices sold for millions or revenue. He is using a very high standard, as opposed to most readers here having much more modest expectations.

So for a financial analyst who cares about revenu and profits first and foremost the Kindle is a failure. Yep. Simpe.
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Old 07-02-2008, 11:25 AM   #8
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As stated he has a vested, or in this case an invested, interest in Amazon doing badly. He needs it to do badly and so he sees what he wants. No big deal, we all cull the anecdotal evidence we need to support our arguments and point of view.

On a different track share prices are very sentiment driven and if his blog is well read he could help drive the price down and so make money. I think the investment term is "trash and cash".
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Old 07-02-2008, 11:28 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TadW View Post
Hmmm At least from an aesthetic point of view, the iLiad is certainly a head turner (if you don't believe it, try to impress a girl with the Kindle...).

Maybe you just haven't met the right one yet...

Well, I'm a girl and whenever my Kindle is out the guys come around asking questions about it (not the women so far, hmmm). I've given so many demos, I should be on Amazon's payroll.
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Old 07-02-2008, 11:44 AM   #10
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Right... I haven't seen another Sony Reader in the wild too. Maybe because I myself ain't too keen to pull out my reader in a crowded space because you won't get much reading done when everyone's gasping at you, wondering what that thing is?
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Old 07-02-2008, 11:46 AM   #11
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Well, I'm a girl and whenever my Kindle is out the guys come around asking questions about it (not the women so far, hmmm). I've given so many demos, I should be on Amazon's payroll.
The same thing happens to me with my Sony Reader.
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Old 07-02-2008, 11:51 AM   #12
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Last month, I flew with Singapore Airlines to NYC. During the flight, three female flight assistants gathered around me (much to my girlfriend's dismay), showing a lot of genuine interest in my Sony Reader, and asking very specific questions (how much built-in memory does it have, where can you purchase the e-books, how long does the battery last, etc.). They all said they had to get one as soon as they got some time off.

Yes, the Sony Reader can impress girls.
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Old 07-02-2008, 11:54 AM   #13
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Well I'm a guy and I've demoed all of my readers (Sony PRS-500/505, iLiad, Cybook) dozens of times. Guys, girls, young, old...

Soon enough I'll demo my own device instead, I'll be even more glad to provide a demo ;-)
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Old 07-02-2008, 12:04 PM   #14
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I've never seen an iPod or an iPhone *ever*, they must be a massive failure, Apple will be going under any day now ... seriously.
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Old 07-02-2008, 12:42 PM   #15
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Compiler Error. Global variables "success" and "failure" have not been defined but an attempt has been made to use them in a boolean operation.

I recall a lot of dire predictions about the iPod when it was first released because it was Mac only, excluded Windows, firewire only, people wouldn't settle for degraded MP3 quality, nobody needs to carry that many songs with them. I did a search and found an example:
http://lowendmac.com/musings/01/1024.html

If iPod and iTunes sales are the benchmark that he is measuring success against then yes I agree it will be a failure against that criteria. It's easy to predict failure if you have unreasonable success criteria.
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