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Old 04-22-2008, 05:14 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by soilwork View Post
Of course, I agree it is hard to predict what the actual price will be. I just hope that Astak/Netronix can stick to their stated price
Its also hard to predict what the device will be capable of. If touch is as "finger", that is uses electrostatic features of the human finger to position like the laptop touchpads do.. it will hardly be exact enough for scribbling.

I'd say maybe if somebody wanted to wait for the new A4 hanklin device (announced for summer)... But waiting for a new Windows crap device. .. But okay everyones own decission.
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Old 04-22-2008, 12:21 PM   #17
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I'd say maybe if somebody wanted to wait for the new A4 hanklin device (announced for summer)... But waiting for a new Windows crap device. .. But okay everyones own decission.
Well, I don't have any preference over WinCE or Linux device. Anything that is cheaper will get my vote as long as it does the job. For me, I am not willing to pay double the price for Iliad only because it runs on a linux if a WinCE device provides the same (or similar) functionality at half the price.

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Old 04-22-2008, 03:24 PM   #18
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Well, I don't have any preference over WinCE or Linux device. Anything that is cheaper will get my vote as long as it does the job. For me, I am not willing to pay double the price for Iliad only because it runs on a linux if a WinCE device provides the same (or similar) functionality at half the price.
Doing the job is actually exactly the issue one cannot predict beforehand. Its not like a decission between two *existing* devices we are talking.... IMHO its still not clear which options this "halfed" price will have installed, nor if this price already includes or excludes VAT. nor if this touchable display will be scribbable, nor when it will be really available. 230€ price difference is a lot, but I personally gladly pay at least up to 100€ to keep stanard windows crashes and anger away from my device. (Yes If I take that price excl. VAT; the price difference is 35% (one third) not 50% (one half) Also I personally highly doubt that "touchable screen" means "scribbable" thus annotateable which you AFAIK just assumed...

If you believe all anouncements unfiltered go there: http://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22942 100$ for a color-epaper-device

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Old 04-22-2008, 04:09 PM   #19
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Doing the job is actually exactly the issue one cannot predict beforehand. Its not like a decission between two *existing* devices we are talking....
More cases than you think, people consider not-yet-released product when they consider purchasing a product. For example, if a new CPU is announced, some people without urgent need for a computer can wait and see how it will perform. If the performance of a new CPU is not as expected, at least it will bring down the price of computers using an older generation CPU.

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IMHO its still not clear which options this "halfed" price will have installed, nor if this price already includes or excludes VAT. nor if this touchable display will be scribbable, nor when it will be really available.
Also I personally highly doubt that "touchable screen" means "scribbable" which you AFAIK just assumed...
I agree that we are working on many assumptions. There are two possibilities.
1) touch screen does not allow comment
2) touch screen allows comment
Let's assume the worst 1). For someone with desperate need for commenting, Iliad is the way to go. Even then, for those who don't have urgent need for comment (for example, I never underline my books), they can a bigger screen at a cheaper price.
If case 2) is true, than waiting for the new product becomes even more attractive.

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230€ price difference is a lot, but I personally gladly pay at least up to 100€ to keep stanard windows crashes and anger away from my device. (Yes If I take that price excl. VAT; the price difference is 35% (one third) not 50% (one half)
If it makes you happy, it is fine by me. However, I will not make such a tradeoff myself. BTW, whether the price of Astak/Netronix is exactly half of the Iliad is not the main point of my argument.
- It is cheaper by a significant margin, (whether it is half or not)
- It will offer a bigger screen (no doubt about this)
- It may/may not offer commenting feature. (Not very important for me)
- It may come out by the end of this year.
Given this expectation, I am willing to wait for Astak/Netronix rather than buying a Iliad.

I replied to this thread since someone with needs similar to mine may wait for future alternatives since it have a reasonable probability of hitting the market soon. Of course you need to buy Iliad right now if
- you need a best PDF viewer available on the market
- Need e-ink reader RIGHT NOW
- Commenting is essential

Quote:
If you believe all anouncements unfiltered go there: http://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22942 100$ for a color-epaper-device
This is clearly a 'concept' device. I already commented on the thread as such. Clearly concept device is quite different from a product with working samples. True, both have uncertainties involved, but you seem to completely ignore the degree of uncertainty.

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Old 04-22-2008, 04:43 PM   #20
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Many thanks

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Originally Posted by soilwork View Post
More cases than you think, people consider not-yet-released product when they consider purchasing a product. For example, if a new CPU is announced, some people without urgent need for a computer can wait and see how it will perform. If the performance of a new CPU is not as expected, at least it will bring down the price of computers using an older generation CPU.


I agree that we are working on many assumptions. There are two possibilities.
1) touch screen does not allow comment
2) touch screen allows comment
Let's assume the worst 1). For someone with desperate need for commenting, Iliad is the way to go. Even then, for those who don't have urgent need for comment (for example, I never underline my books), they can a bigger screen at a cheaper price.
If case 2) is true, than waiting for the new product becomes even more attractive.


If it makes you happy, it is fine by me. However, I will not make such a tradeoff myself. BTW, whether the price of Astak/Netronix is exactly half of the Iliad is not the main point of my argument.
- It is cheaper by a significant margin, (whether it is half or not)
- It will offer a bigger screen (no doubt about this)
- It may/may not offer commenting feature. (Not very important for me)
- It may come out by the end of this year.
Given this expectation, I am willing to wait for Astak/Netronix rather than buying a Iliad.

I replied to this thread since someone with needs similar to mine may wait for future alternatives since it have a reasonable probability of hitting the market soon. Of course you need to buy Iliad right now if
- you need a best PDF viewer available on the market
- Need e-ink reader RIGHT NOW
- Commenting is essential


This is clearly a 'concept' device. I already commented on the thread as such. Clearly concept device is quite different from a product with working samples. True, both have uncertainties involved, but you seem to completely ignore the degree of uncertainty.
Many thanks for a such full answer.
I read about Astak/Netronix device before and thought about it.
I have hope on Iliads's price to go down when after astak device introduction.

IMHO if IREX made device bit cheaper or gave a student discounts it would help to sell more devices. For me as for postgrad this really very expensive.
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Old 04-22-2008, 04:50 PM   #21
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True, both have uncertainties involved, but you seem to completely ignore the degree of uncertainty.
What make you think so?

Well maybe I'm generally just more distrusting. In announcements people always announce what a device all can do, people get alll crazy about it, but only after the first people bought it, we know what it everything can't do! For the iLiad this was no different. This is a risk you don't have with say future CPUs. They bare less surprises whats not possible, not yet ready, you know the stories.

For me the possibly upcoming A4 Hanlin device might be far more worth a wait for than this windows CE device... However I heared for Hanlin you first have to convert PDFs

IMHO the current eReader market is like the CPU market in the 90ies. (it has greatly slowed down in the last years compared to that) New devices come out currently aprox. in 6 months to 1 year rhythm. So not a single point, you cannot be sure that 12 months later you will get a cheaper device which can do more.
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Old 04-22-2008, 07:21 PM   #22
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What make you think so?

Well maybe I'm generally just more distrusting. In announcements people always announce what a device all can do, people get alll crazy about it, but only after the first people bought it, we know what it everything can't do!
This is what I mean by ignoring the degrees of uncertainly.
I will assume that the probability of a product hitting the market (The numbers are arbitrary or subjective).
A) For Astak/Netronix 60%
B) For the concept device 10%
C) Iliad 100% (since it is in the market already)
Since you don't believe in any announcement, you treat both A) and B) equally. I don't treat them the same and that is the difference between you and me.

Quote:
For the iLiad this was no different. This is a risk you don't have with say future CPUs. They bare less surprises whats not possible, not yet ready, you know the stories.
That is exactly my point. I am talking about comparing two alternatives:
1) currently available product (smaller or no risk)
2) uncertain future product (bigger risk)
Depending on uncertainty related to 2), I am willing to compare the two alternatives. If someone is not going to do that, it is fine. My point is that, for someone like me, waiting for future product can be a valid option.

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Old 04-22-2008, 07:23 PM   #23
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Many thanks for a such full answer.
I read about Astak/Netronix device before and thought about it.
I have hope on Iliads's price to go down when after astak device introduction.

IMHO if IREX made device bit cheaper or gave a student discounts it would help to sell more devices. For me as for postgrad this really very expensive.
Hi, I am glad if it was of any help. I am a graduate student myself so cost is quite important as well. Hope you make a satisfactory decision on choosing your e-ink reader.

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Old 04-23-2008, 02:19 AM   #24
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This is what I mean by ignoring the degrees of uncertainly.
I will assume that the probability of a product hitting the market (The numbers are arbitrary or subjective).
A) For Astak/Netronix 60%
B) For the concept device 10%
C) Iliad 100% (since it is in the market already)
Since you don't believe in any announcement, you treat both A) and B) equally. I don't treat them the same and that is the difference between you and me.
I'm not treating it equally. I merly said *if* you take any announcement without assesment of probability, you might as well wait for the Papyrus. Because I did not see any of this, "hey its 60% propable" assement in the early posts.

For the astak 60% for hitting the market at all, or also doing everything what you expect it to do? Its a personal "risk" which is subjective. So say the 40% case gets to be a real thing, and it goes not to market, because say windows CE just can't handle eInk displays, company loses interest, whatever. And you wait 'til August, then some months more, and in December you decide to buy an iLiad after all for much the price it is today.. Well you lost 9 months of being able to use the device...

And as I said, I take a 99% chance, that there will be any better/cheaper device in 12-24 months. But in 12 months there will be again a 99% chance that 12 months later there will be another yet better device, and 12 months later... you get it..

It still the same with notebooks. There is nothing older in the universe than the notebook I bought last month

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Old 04-23-2008, 02:53 AM   #25
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Also an interesting question is, what is iRex up to right now? How highly probalbe is a new iLiad generation? They must be doing something all the day, not? Hmm, I just checked up, until recently they still opened to hire for developers, that was a clear sign they do something... Right now they search only for a service engineer. Not so a good sign. Are they developing the next generation iLIad, or aren't they? Of course they are not telling, they are not stupid enough to ruin their current market, as one can see in this very thread announcing new things shifts the market already... which of course for a newcomer tries to do!
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Old 04-23-2008, 03:44 AM   #26
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I'm not treating it equally. I merly said *if* you take any announcement without assesment of probability, you might as well wait for the Papyrus. Because I did not see any of this, "hey its 60% propable" assement in the early posts.
I think it should be obvious in my previous posts since I mentioned several times it is based on 'assumptions'. I was not treating as if the product is out. If the product is out as it stated with stylus feature, Iliad should go out of the market right now. I would have told any person to stay away from Iliad no matter what. I said waiting for a future product can be a viable option for some people.

Quote:
For the astak 60% for hitting the market at all, or also doing everything what you expect it to do? Its a personal "risk" which is subjective. So say the 40% case gets to be a real thing, and it goes not to market, because say windows CE just can't handle eInk displays, company loses interest, whatever. And you wait 'til August, then some months more, and in December you decide to buy an iLiad after all for much the price it is today.. Well you lost 9 months of being able to use the device...
According to your logic, if there is any chance that the product will not come to market, then should not consider it since you will experience huge regret when the outcome turns out to be unfavorable. Then, we should buy whatever it is available regardless of the cost or any future alternative.
If you consider uncertainty, even if the result may not be favorable, waiting for a future alternative can be rational decision and it may be the best decision you can make at the point in time with the given information.
Let me denote the utility of both options as
A) U(waiting for Astak/Netronix product) = (the utility of Astak/Netronix) * weighted by the probability (e.g. 0.6)
B) U(Using iliad right now) = utility of using Iliad
Then, economically rational consumer will wait if A is greater than B. If B is greater then A, then the person should buy Iliad right now.
Let us think about a person decided to wait since A > B.
Until it becomes clear either Astak/Netronix hit the market or disappear, there will always be uncertainty. Ex ante, we don't know outcome exactly, so waiting for the product can be a rational choice given the information/uncertainty/subject belief at the time when the person made the decision. Of course, the result may not be favorable but at least the decision is best the person can make anyway.


Quote:
And as I said, I take a 99% chance, that there will be any better/cheaper device in 12-24 months. But in 12 months there will be again a 99% chance that 12 months later there will be another yet better device, and 12 months later... you get it..

It still the same with notebooks. There is nothing older in the universe than the notebook I bought last month
It does not mean that you should buy whatever is available if you do not want to wait indefinitely.
Let us think about a person who has 500$ to spend on e-ink reader. Then, Iliad is not an option. As you said, there will be cheaper and better e-ink reader in the future. Then, the person can purchase the first e-ink reader that sells under 500$ with reasonable PDF support. Then, for this person, waiting for a future product is the best decision since he/she cannot afford the current one.


Let me summarize my main argument/claim. "Waiting for a potential future product can be a viable option for some people especially those who can wait". If you have any comments on my main point, you are welcome. However, I would like to avoid answering irrelevant details from now on.

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Old 04-23-2008, 04:44 AM   #27
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Well the tone of the discussion is going rapiditly down here I'd appreciate if it could all be nice again like I'm used to and enjoy on mobileread.. Maybe the arguments are not irrelevant for others?

And yes I agree on your main point. I would like to add: eReaders are a luxury good right now, not a social "must-have" like for example in certain disciplines on the academy a notebook is. Instead of assessing probabilities of future device to decide if you want to buy something now: if you currently can't afford one without having a painful hit on your budget, of course do not buy one, ragardless of what you think might come or not. If you want a new gadget to play with and you can affort it, buy one now. An eReader is just a nice to have, with the current infrastructure it rarly safes you money, like a scenario when eBooks would be really much cheaper... For me the iLiad was a graduation present, and since graduation was a fixed moment in time, waiting was understandable not an option. As society changes, maybe eReaders will be a must have in certain disciplines, like cars/tvs were once luxury too and are now standard devices. I'm nosy to see which discipline will be the first, but right now there just aren't any.

The "I want it now" factor and "lets wait somewhat" factor is and must stay highly subjective, and cannot be objectively answered to somebody asking what to do. A funny annotation is In classic economics, they do calculate a "I want it now" factor into the actors, or else due to interests, you would always get more of the same money next year, and a rational acting actor would never buy anything except what he needs to survive now.

It also depends what is important to you, for example I guess for you its mostly screensize and price. For somebody else the scribble might be an important factor too, for some (like me) open to development is very important, since I want to add additional applications to the device. As far I can tell from the current announcements, there is no other scribbable, open-to-development device on the horizont than the iLiad. If screensize is important I'd might wait for the new A4 Hanlin, since it is developed by a company already in the market, I consider it much more likely than a newcomer, but it certainly will be closed. Price is afaik yet unknown.

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Old 04-24-2008, 07:02 PM   #28
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1.
By any means, I am not a representative user of Mobileread population at all.
I see many people discuss touchy subject without losing their temper with admiration. I believe mobileread experience will be at least as pleasant as or better than anything you can get from any other site. And that is why I like to lurk and read here.

2.
I am sorry if my attitude was offensive to you. However, I would like to stop at some point since I would rather not discuss irrelevant details or follow unreasonable suggestion.

2.1
One thing is bringing up irrelevant details. I am not saying that all our discussions are irrelevant. What I mean by 'irrelevant detail' is something like this:
"Iliad price is not exactly double the price of Astak/Netronix".
It can be true or not. Even if it is true, as long as the Astak/Netronix price is lower than Iliad, it does not affect my main claim that 'some people are better off waiting' at all. We can argue about this until the end of the world, and the result will not affect my claim unless you find some evidence that Astak/Netronix will be MORE expensive in terms of price/performance ratio than Iliad. And I highly doubt it will be the case. A exact price ratio involving future product is, I think, irrelevant detail and I think discussing it is a complete waste of time. So I would rather not discuss such things from now on.

2.2.
In addition, you seems to think that I should state my subjective probability explicitly if I am not completely sure instead of expressing it indirectly in my suggestion.
I am sorry but it is plainly ridiculous. I have no willingness to continue discussion with such requirement. (Makes me think of asking a person to swim with hands tied to his back).

3.
Judging from your last post, now we seem to think quite similarly except for minor points (or we did not realize it before).
Quote:
Instead of assessing probabilities of future device to decide if you want to buy something now: if you currently can't afford one without having a painful hit on your budget, of course do not buy one, ragardless of what you think might come or not. If you want a new gadget to play with and you can affort it, buy one now.
I don't disagree with your argument here, but I think you are still missing some types of consumers. Let us classify people into three groups with respect to their disposable money and willingness to wait
A) Enough money, decide to buy Iliad right now
B) Enough money, decide to wait for a future product
C) Not enough money, have no choice but to wait for a future product
You seem to think A) and C) are the only possible cases. I argue that there are people who will fall in B) category.
Whether some people will belong to A) or B), it depends on many factors such as
- valuation of using the each product (screen size, price, open system, ...)
- subjective probability of future product coming to the market
- how you value your future and current experience.
Depending on such factors, some people are better off waiting and that is my point.

4.
From your post, you seem to value the current experience much more than any potential future experience. If it is the case, you are right to buy a product available right now. However, using the product right now is not the supreme experience that is beyond comparison or trade-off at least for some people. People have managed to live without e-ink reader and most people will continue to do so for a longer time than we mobilereader users may expect.

5.
The reason I brought up the topic of economic user is that you seem to imply
"People should purchase a currently available one. If not, they cannot get one indefinitely when products are constantly innovating. (Refer to your post at #24)." I already refuted your argument in my previous post by showing that some people can wait and end up buying something in the future. So I will not discuss it any further.

6.
Overall, I think some people are better off waiting while some others are better off buying. By waiting, they may get better / bigger screen at lower price. This is more true since some probable future alternatives are competing to reach the market. I just do not agree with your unconditional suggestion like 'buy it now, if you can afford it'.
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Old 04-25-2008, 02:11 AM   #29
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Oh I tought already you lost interest in this discussion

Look if the price difference is the half or 30% or at the end only 20% *is* a very relevant detail to me. People start talking about "the half" altough its hardly true. Also how much does one trust a cost estimation that early. etc. If its irrelevant to you, just don't it "reply" to that post in future, or just gloss over that part.

3. Case 'C' is a "no-brainer" you brought in this discussion...

Quote:
We can argue about this until the end of the world, and the result will not affect my claim unless you find some evidence that Astak/Netronix will be MORE expensive in terms of price/performance ratio than Iliad. And I highly doubt it will be the case.
Well comparing price is also a nobrainer, however the performance part is discussable. In some cases they will just be inconsumerabel and performance subjective. Like if it will not include scribble, how much money is that worth? Can you then seriously use the device for scientific pdf reading at all? how stable will windows be? Which applications will run on it? How open is the device for new applications? how long will the battery last? how easily breakable will the casing be? does it read encrypted pdfs? etc.

The scribbling feature is important and as far I guess about the price structure a seriously expensive part of the iLiad. WACOM tablets of comparable size cost aprox. 200€.. So think away WACOM feature of the iliad. You are already 200€ cheaper... (and arrive at the cost level the Kindle or Sony is currently at...)

Also I'd like to bring over this post from another topic, gets it briefly what it is about, and I think what we could agree on:

Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryT View Post
Quote:
and to replace the hardware this soon would certainly anger a lot of early adopters.
I really don't see why anyone would be "angered" by it - they would still have the device that they paid for. I didn't feel outraged personally when Sony released the PRS-505 a few months after I'd bought the PRS-500.

The simple fact is that, in a market like this, there will always be new devices coming on to the market. Anyone who doesn't realise that should probably wait a few years before buying.

Last edited by axel77; 04-25-2008 at 02:14 AM.
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Old 04-25-2008, 03:21 AM   #30
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Could you clearly state what your claim is in your own words without citing others? I think I already refuted what I think it is your claim, but you seem to raise the same issue all over again.
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