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Old 04-22-2013, 11:10 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by BWinmill View Post
I wouldn't put too much stock into the value of any corporation's shares unless, of course, I was planning to invest in the company. The problem is that the market is driven by speculation. In the case of media darlings like Apple, I'd go as far as claiming that much of the speculation borders takes the form of gossip. Stuff like, "Now that Apple's daddy is dead ...", and "Did you hear that Samsung ...".

Apple will survive and their share price has very little bearing upon that part. Apple has good products, a loyal customer base, and a huge lump of cash in reserve. Who cares what the fanbois and demonizers think, Apple is a business -- not a contestant in a popularity contests. Apple has to make money. Anything above and beyond is nice, but not necessary.
we say "the veins are rich"

Last edited by forsooth; 04-28-2013 at 06:34 PM.
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Old 04-22-2013, 06:02 PM   #17
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Google's stock is on the rise. Could they be headed for the same fate?

http://bgr.com/2013/03/05/google-sto...alysis-360273/

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Old 04-23-2013, 05:22 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by GlenBarrington View Post
That problem is, "how do we fit into the world we helped create?", and right now Apple doesn't seem to be able to answer that question with confidence.
I like this, but I don't agree. Apple has never been able to coexist (I wish I could make that with all the symbols). When the home computer came about, Apple was there with something original. Atari and Commodore produced similar computers at a lower cost and Apple moved on to a different kind of computer with a graphical computer interface. When Microsoft entered that space, Apple floundered. Skully was brought in to help Jobs run the company, then Jobs left, then Skully left, then Jobs came back with a new product -- the iPod. Along again, Apple thrived. They made everything about the iPod and were successful. The iPod changed size and shape, learned to make phone calls, and surf the internet -- keeping Apple alone. Now others have entered that arena and it's time for Apple to find something amazing to call their own.

Incremental improvement in existing products with more competitive prices will not save Apple.

Anecdote: I was in Walt Disney World last week. You can get a good feel for the State of the Apple in such places. I only saw one person using an ipad on the four flights I took. In the parks, fewer people were taking pictures/videos with their iPads (they all hold them over their heads during fireworks and parades).
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Old 04-23-2013, 07:27 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by wizwor View Post
Incremental improvement in existing products with more competitive prices will not save Apple.
Not sure Apple needs "saving", but:

That was what Scully did.
Didn't work then, won't work now.

Apple doesn't run well with the crowd. And if it should happen the crowd is following them, they need to go elsewhere.

Right now I'm amused by all the rumors of a plastic-bodied "cheap" iPhone coming at the same time Samsung is looking to maybe do the Galaxy S5 as a premium metal-bodied phone.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-57...ke-the-iphone/

Apple's much vaunted "innovation" has more often than not been mere differentiation which, in business terms, is a *necessity* not an option. Apple's litigiousness is merely a reflection of their need to be different and the moneychangers' obsession with "the next insanely great thing" is a reflection of the unstated understanding that if Apple *isn't* somehow different, they're not really all that special. (And their stock shouldn't be treated as such.)

"If everybody is special.... then, nobody is".

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Old 04-23-2013, 07:33 AM   #20
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"If everybody is special.... then, nobody is".
...except monkeys
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Old 04-23-2013, 07:38 AM   #21
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...except monkeys
Sock-monkeys, anyway...
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Old 04-23-2013, 12:02 PM   #22
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Doom's day is here!

7 Reasons Apple is More Doomed Than You Think
  • The stock is expensive
  • Apple has nothing new in the pipeline
  • Without Jobs, Apple’s management has lost the ability to innovate
  • A cheaper iPhone marks the end of Apple’s leadership
  • Betting on lower expectations is not a good investment strategy
  • A new TV or wristwatch won’t revive Apple’s growth
  • Apple is not well-positioned strategically
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Old 04-23-2013, 12:12 PM   #23
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ZDNet:
http://www.zdnet.com/does-apple-real...e539&ttag=e539

Quote:
Apple's earnings season has quickly devolved into absurdity season as handwringing over everything from CEO Tim Cook's tenure to iPhone sales to whether the company is more hardware than software is in play.

Why? It's amazing what happens when Wall Street's hottest stock tumbles and drags mutual fund managers, retirement accounts, Apple fan boys, individual investors and a few others along with it. Oh the agony! Let's get real: Everyone owns Apple shares. Even if you hate the company, some index or mutual fund owns Apple so you do indirectly. The bell at Apple's peak was rung with all that $1 trillion market cap talk and then the company and its lack of product launches took over from there.
Quote:
The scary part is that a lot of folks probably think today's dynamic with Apple shares is new. Cisco in the dot-com bubble had a similar issue. Financial history is littered with super star tech stocks that go pop — as Research in Motion/BlackBerry. From time to time, the market revalues a company's prospects and sometimes you're on the wrong side of the trade.
Quote:
What has changed about Apple amid this revaluation of shares? Nothing. Apple is a bit slow with its product launches, but has time. Apple also knows it has high expectations to hit so can't enter the market with crap (see Apple Maps). Apple is doing the rational thing: milking its existing products as it plots out its product roadmap. Keep in mind that the iPod launched in 2001, iTunes in 2003, iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010. In other words, Apple is due for a new product line, but not way overdue.

In the end, it's worth asking who really has the identity crisis and patience problem. Here's a hint: It ain't Apple.
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Old 04-23-2013, 03:15 PM   #24
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Ftorres... saw this and chuckled... at least someone recognises the rumour-mill effect for all the anti-Apple doomsayers - it really makes them feel good and meets all their firmly established opinions despite having little footing in reality, still never mind the numbers, spread doom and gloom and cheer the "demise" of a major company and employer...
Never mind the facts, numbers and reality of what's actually happening and never mind that, if true, would be a serious problem for thousands of people's employment...
Panic, panic and moan moan, way more fun running things down rather than looking for something on the bright side (now ducks for cover from the "antis" and the "we on't hate Apple but..." brigades)...
Terrible company, terrible people, terrible products, single-handed destroyers of the world and enslavers of the people... no other company ever has any problems and they're all better than Apple who only ever got anywhere by luck and acting mean...
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Old 04-23-2013, 03:41 PM   #25
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I do not want to see Apple fail.

I want to see their closed ecosystem business model fail the way it always does eventually. Not fail completely, as it has a place, but not as a dominant player. I've bought into it twice because I didn't learn my lesson in the 80s. Never again.

Last edited by pl001; 04-23-2013 at 03:44 PM.
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Old 04-23-2013, 04:08 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by afv011 View Post
Doom's day is here!
  • The stock is expensive
    It's less expensive than it was by 40% when people thought it had nowhere to go but up. The general rules of accounting cannot be applied to Apple. P/E based on last year's earnings makes this a cheap stock. P/E based on anticipated earnings is very difficult to determine.
  • Apple has nothing new in the pipeline
    No one can know this.
  • Without Jobs, Apple’s management has lost the ability to innovate
    Management does not innovate. Creative innovates -- don't you watch Mad Men? Management can hire innovative people, fund innovative researchers, or buy innovative companies. Apple seems to be doing all of these.
  • A cheaper iPhone marks the end of Apple’s leadership
    It's not a good thing. Lower prices upset early adopters, reduce profits, and tarnish image. Of course, lack of sales will do these too.
  • Betting on lower expectations is not a good investment strategy
    I don't even know what this means.
  • A new TV or wristwatch won’t revive Apple’s growth
    I agree with this. A big splash for something no one wants won't help and losing to Samsung would rub salt in a wound. BUT, beating Samsung with an even smarter TV at a very good price and a made in the USA campaign could rally people to Apple's flag.
  • Apple is not well-positioned strategically
    Yeah, it's tough to compete when you have a great brand and infinite cash.
I'm no iFan and life sucks for those who bought AAPL at $700, but Apple is only an amazing product away from recovery. For all we know, this product is inching towards the market at this very instance.
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Old 04-23-2013, 05:23 PM   #27
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Apple's financials just came out and, boy, are *they* hurting!
http://www.zdnet.com/apples-fiscal-q...e589&ttag=e589

Quote:
All eyes were on Apple after the bell on Tuesday for the iPhone maker's second quarter earnings report.

The Cupertino, Calif.-based corporation reported second fiscal quarter earnings of $9.5 billion, or $10.09 a share (statement).

Non-GAAP earnings were $10.16 a share on a revenue of $43.6 billion.

Thomson Reuters had projected Apple earnings of $10 a share on a non-GAAP basis in the second quarter on revenue of $42.3 billion.
Quote:
The iOS giant sold 37.4 million iPhones (compared to 35.1 million during the same period last year) as well as 19.5 million iPads (compared to 11.8 million during the same quarter last year).

But Apple sold "just under" four million Macs, compared to roughly four million flat during the second fiscal quarter of 2012.
Oh, yeah... They are bleeding to death...
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Old 04-23-2013, 05:51 PM   #28
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The figures are strong of course, and they're still making a healthy profit, but nonetheless it is Apple's first drop in quarterly profits for a decade.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22274324

That doesn't mean that profits will continue to fall, of course, or that the share price won't rally, but it does justify this speculation about what path Apple is on. Do they have something up their sleeve? Are they settling into a more realistic position?

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Old 04-23-2013, 05:55 PM   #29
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Oh, yeah... They are bleeding to death...
Their market share is.

RIM fans used to repeat the same things...making a profit, sales increasing, etc, etc. Then within 2 years the bottom fell out. Now Apple is not RIM, but don't assume that just because they are increasing sales that everything is great. Apple has very few products, the oldest and arguably most limited mobile OS on the market, and almost no diversification.
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Old 04-23-2013, 06:39 PM   #30
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I think the perceived risk is that Cook lacks the clout of vision to take a big swing that will turn things around. Even if something new arrives, a lot of people will characterize it as a Jobs death bed innovation.

Maybe that are holding back on a death bed innovation so that Cook can claim it as the first win of his reign?
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