Nexus 4 sales estimated at 375,000 by enthusiasts decoding serial numbers

[Top100EbooksRank]

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/3/383...-sales-at-370k

By utilizing this system users were able to pinpoint roughly how many devices were being produced per month (70,000 in October, 90,000 in November, and 210,000 in December), as well as discovering that many phones were being made after being ordered. One user discovered — through an LG help page that lists the exact day of manufacture — that his device was produced three days after being ordered, and then took a week to make it to Kentucky from Korea.

http://techcrunch.com/2013/01/02/google-nexus-4/

If you take this link and put your IMEI number at the very end, this LG site will spit back out the IMEI followed by a long string of characters that looks something like this: “LGE960 ACAGBK 212KPHG188745 20121206 GLOBAL/GLOBAL N N”

If you break this string apart, you get:
LGE960 = phone model
A = ?
CA = Country where the device was sold. (Others include ‘US’ for the U.S., ‘HK’ for Hong Kong, ‘AU’ for Australia and so on.)
G = Storage (G = 16GB, 8 = 8GB)
BK = Color
2 = ?
12 = Production Month (November)
K = Production Country (Korea)
PHG = ?
188745 = The line or production number, showing that phone was the 188,745th device made.
2012121206 = The production date in YYYYMMDD format

A number of Nexus 4 owners have been sharing and compiling the production numbers day by day (see below). It suggests that LG made about 70,000 devices in October, 90,000 in November and 210,000 in December. Google declined to comment on these numbers.

Still, they’re interesting for a couple reasons. It appears that Google and LG have been conservative with the Nexus 4 launch. LG has previously said that the Nexus 4 “had proven extremely popular, and as such retailers have been met with huge demand.” Google’s U.K. and Ireland managing director Dan Cobley likewise has said there have been communication problems on both ends with managing supply for the Nexus 4.

Keeping supplies tight have made the Nexus 4 debut a world apart from the launch of the original HTC-manufactured Nexus One back in 2010.

DEC
165000
264000
265133 14-th ADEUBK GERMANY
266133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
267133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
268133 15-th ADEUBK GERMANY
269133 15-th ADEUBK GERMANY
270133 15-th ASWSBK SWS Switzerland (looks like around 500 units)
271133 16-th AISRBK Israel
272133 15-th ADEUBK Germany
273133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
274133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
275133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
277133 17-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
278133 17-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
279133 16-th AMYSBK
280123 17-th AMYSBK
289000 18-th UK
300123 19-th ADEGBK
305112 19-th ACA8BK
306000 28-Oct (?) AUSGBK, 211KPPB306000 “csn” is also very different from the “surroundings”
306001 8-Oct AUSGBK 211KPHG306001 esnoutgodate=null >>Never shipped?
306009 4-th Dec AUSGBK 212KPHG306009 esnoutgodate=null
306010 19-th AUS8BK 212KPYR306010 esnoutgodate=null
306020 19-th AUS8BK esnoutgodate=null
314001 19-th AFRGBK
314002 19-th ADEGBK
314050 19-th ADEGBK
314123 19-th ADEGBK
315112 19-th ADE8BK
319123 20-th ADEGBK
320123 20-th ADEGBK
321123 20-th AAUGBK
325112 20-th AUSGBK
330123 20-th AUSGBK
340123 21-th ACAGBK
350123 22-th AUS8BK
360123 26-th AUSGBK
365123 27-th AUS8BK
370123 27-th AUSGBK
374110 28-th AUSGBK

October: 70,000
November: 90,000
Dec: 210,000
January: ?

Before the "sold-out sign", it has 8-9 weeks before delivery on the Google Play store. Look like LG can't keep up with the demand for this phone.

Even if LG/Google had 1 million to sell, they might not have meet the demand.

[medard]

I really don't understand this.. Paperwhite still needs "5-7 weeks", Nexus isn't available at all. I feel like living in the Soviet Union.. What are these guys doing with us?

[tubemonkey]

Originally Posted by Top100EbooksRank

Before the "sold-out sign", it has 8-9 weeks before delivery on the Google Play store. Look like LG can't keep up with the demand for this phone.

Personally, I don't think they want to keep up with demand. Nexus 4 sales cut into their own overpriced brand sales. Nexus is a major threat to all handset makers. Just wait until Amazon enters this market and watch these guys really panic.

[Top100EbooksRank]

Originally Posted by tubemonkey

Personally, I don't think they want to keep up with demand. Nexus 4 sales cut into their own overpriced brand sales. Nexus is a major threat to all handset makers. Just wait until Amazon enters this market and watch these guys really panic.

or it could be something like this

Hypothetical Example:

It cost LG $250 to make 16GB Nexus 4.

Sell it to Google for $340 (profit of $90 for LG)
Sell it to T-Mobile for $340 (profit of $90 for LG)

Google sell it for $349.
T-Mobile sell it for $499.

-----------------------------

so the more phones that LG make, the better for them since they will make $90 profit for each one sold.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by medard

I really don't understand this.. Paperwhite still needs "5-7 weeks", Nexus isn't available at all. I feel like living in the Soviet Union.. What are these guys doing with us?

The Kindle Paperwhite is showing as "in stock" and available for delivery tomorrow on both Amazon US and UK. Where do you get your "5-7 weeks" from?

[mgmueller]

Originally Posted by medard

I really don't understand this.. Paperwhite still needs "5-7 weeks", Nexus isn't available at all. I feel like living in the Soviet Union.. What are these guys doing with us?

I've bought 2 Paperwhites in Germany.
Both, when ordering, said "6 to 9 weeks".
The first was here after 2 weeks, the second after 3 weeks.
Still not "just-in-time". But way ahead of schedule...
Obviously, Amazon and the likes give very conservative estimates and then over-deliver...

[djulian]

Originally Posted by HarryT

The Kindle Paperwhite is showing as "in stock" and available for delivery tomorrow on both Amazon US and UK. Where do you get your "5-7 weeks" from?

Perhaps he lives in the Soviet Union.

On the main topic, LG needs to get on it. I have the Nexus 4 16GB purchase page as my home page so I can check it daily for new stock. I'm ready to buy, and given my American "immediate gratification" upbringing, I don't like waiting.

[holymadness]

What a tiny number. Too small to make a dent in anything, much less the universe.

No wonder Google is making its own "xPhone."

[medard]

Originally Posted by HarryT

Where do you get your "5-7 weeks" from?

Spoiler:

[runtmms]

Good news is the Nexus 4 is starting to ship more reliably in the US. I placed orders for the 16GB version on Dec 4, 10, and 13. All were listed as a 5-6 week wait when I ordered. I got shipping notifications on all three today and should have them tomorrow. I have to believe they'll start taking new orders soon.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by medard

Spoiler:

Thanks!

The Paperwhite was released later in Germany than in the UK, I believe. Perhaps it's still in its initial rush of orders there? I remember the order time being several weeks in the UK, too, a couple of months back, but it's in stock for immediate delivery now. Hopefully the same thing will soon happen in Germany.

The good news is that when Amazon say that a shipping time is 5 weeks, it generally actually gets delivered much more quickly than that.

[tubemonkey]

Current Nexus phone pricing:

• $299 = 8GB
• $349 = 16GB

When it drops to this pricing, I'll jump:

• $249 = 16GB
• $299 = 32GB

[Crowl]

Originally Posted by tubemonkey

Current Nexus phone pricing:

• $299 = 8GB
• $349 = 16GB

When it drops to this pricing, I'll jump:

• $249 = 16GB
• $299 = 32GB

While they might drop the price of the existing ones, it seems unlikely they will add another model later on like they did with the n7, if they added another model a more obvious change would be an lte variant, but they probably wouldn't bother as the nexus phones seem intended to set a decent base level for the following year's android devices.

[tubemonkey]

Originally Posted by Crowl

While they might drop the price of the existing ones, it seems unlikely they will add another model later on like they did with the n7, if they added another model a more obvious change would be an lte variant, but they probably wouldn't bother as the nexus phones seem intended to set a decent base level for the following year's android devices.

8GB is a joke without a card slot. So I'm hoping the next model starts with a 16GB minimum.

[Top100EbooksRank]

http://forum.xda-developers.com/show...&postcount=198

Ok, did additional poking, the results as follows:

Phone produced in Oct had serial#
10000 19th of Oct, AUS8BK
20000 USA
45000
60000 AUS
70123 ATMOBK (t-mobile)

Something like 70k devices produced in October

Nov
73000 1-th AO2UBK (O2 UK model)
75000 5-th AO2UBK
80000 5-th AO2UBK
85000 21-th (?) AUKGBK - strange,
90000 9-th AUS8BK
92000 10-th AUS8BK
95000 - USA
109000 - GER
110000 - UK
132000 - USA
138000 - USA
150000 - USA
160000 - AUSGBK

DEC
165000
264000
265133 14-th ADEUBK GERMANY
266133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
267133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
268133 15-th ADEUBK GERMANY
269133 15-th ADEUBK GERMANY
270133 15-th ASWSBK SWS Switzerland (looks like around 500 units)
271133 16-th AISRBK Israel
272133 15-th ADEUBK Germany
273133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
274133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
275133 15-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
277133 17-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
278133 17-th AHKGBK Hong Kong
279133 16-th AMYSBK
280123 17-th AMYSBK
289000 18-th UK
300123 19-th ADEGBK
305112 19-th ACA8BK
306000 28-Oct (?) AUSGBK, 211KPPB306000 "csn" is also very different from the "surroundings"
306001 8-Oct AUSGBK 211KPHG306001 esnoutgodate=null >>Never shipped?
306009 4-th Dec AUSGBK 212KPHG306009 esnoutgodate=null
306010 19-th AUS8BK 212KPYR306010 esnoutgodate=null
306020 19-th AUS8BK esnoutgodate=null
314001 19-th AFRGBK
314002 19-th ADEGBK
314050 19-th ADEGBK
314123 19-th ADEGBK
315112 19-th ADE8BK
319123 20-th ADEGBK
320123 20-th ADEGBK
321123 20-th AAUGBK
325112 20-th AUSGBK
330123 20-th AUSGBK
340123 21-th ACAGBK
350123 22-th AUS8BK
360123 26-th AUSGBK
365123 27-th AUS8BK
370123 27-th AUSGBK
374110 28-th AUSGBK

January 2013
375110 2-th AUS8BK
377110 3-th ASFRBK
381110 2-th ASFRBK
385110 3-th AGBRBK GBR "UNITED KINGDOM" - a new retailer? Play store was a AUKGBK
390110 3-th AUSGBK
395110 4-th AUSGBK
399110 3-th ATMOBK
400110 4-th AUSGBK
406110 4-th AUSGBK

So, it looks like el goog + lg are powering full stream ahead, was nearly afraid that they they will stop at 375k.

Now it looks like we are at 406k devices or more than 10k devices per day, the same rate as in Dec.
I'd say - not bad at all.

October: 70,000
November: 90,000
Dec: 210,000
January: 300,000 doable? (at the rate of 10,000 per day)




At this rate, they might put the Nexus 4 back for sales in a week time. Their back-order was to around February 3rd. If it goes on sales again on say January 12th, it might be have something like this:

Delivery in 3-4 weeks.

that's better than

Sold Out


This has the potential to be the most popular LG smartphone ever.