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Old 01-24-2013, 12:25 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by EowynCarter View Post
Ah, that mentaliy that if a company don't do more profit than the previous year it's colapsing....

Making profit is good enough.
Speculators got to make money from somewhere. What has sound business and good profit got to do with it? The statements in these articles seem to be trying to influence the market rather than unbiased opinion.
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Old 01-24-2013, 01:28 PM   #47
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Right, it's broken. I echo the sentiment previously expressed by other members: I would love to be broken by billions of dollars of profit per quarter. The weight of it in coins would do a good job of crushing me.

Regarding the iPhone, maybe they were wrong to change the size of the screen of the iPhone. Maybe they didn't make it big enough. We'll see what they do next. It would be interesting if they decide to finally make a more substantial change in design.

When it comes to the Mac:
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Apple CEO Tim Cook responded to questions about the issue of potential cannibalization of Mac sales by iPad devices on today’s earnings call, a question made more timely by the fact that Mac sales were down considerably on the quarter. He reiterated that supply constraints are leading to fewer sales, but also tackled cannibalization as a broad topic, noting that there is opportunity there for the iPad in a couple of important ways.

Cook reiterated that Apple “never fear[s] cannibalization,” since it’s always better to cannibalize your own products rather than have someone else do it to you. But then he went on to address the larger picture, talking about the PC market in general. ”On iPad in particular we have the mother of all opportunities here, because the Windows market is much larger than the Mac market,” he said. “I’ve said in the past that I believe the tablet market would be larger than the PC market at some point and I still believe that.”
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Old 01-24-2013, 01:44 PM   #48
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and the slowest increase in sales in 14 quarters
That may be one of the silliest attempts at sounding dire I've ever heard.
An increase is sales isn't enough, it must be a fast increase?

Get the eulogy written ... this thing's bleeding out fast.
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Old 01-24-2013, 01:45 PM   #49
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I'm contemplating a blog article....
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:01 PM   #50
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That may be one of the silliest attempts at sounding dire I've ever heard.
An increase is sales isn't enough, it must be a fast increase?

Get the eulogy written ... this thing's bleeding out fast.
I think that the right expression for this is 'grasping at straws', right?
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Old 01-24-2013, 04:52 PM   #51
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Making profit is good enough.
For a private company, yes. Public, no. People invest with expectations of performance. When those expectations aren't met or when they feel there is no more money to be made they move on to other investments.

Don't get me wrong, Apple isn't going to collapse next week or next year. But just making a profit isn't good enough. Neither is increasing sales when you are losing market share. Ask RIM about that. I think Apple has peaked and is on the downturn. How far down they go will depend a lot on what they release over the next year. And with their cash reserves they would have to be completely inept to go down as far as RIM has. I don't see that happening.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:04 PM   #52
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AAPL has always been an emotional stock. You can't guarantee a profit from owning ANY company's stock. That's part of the market, volatility and the unknown. But if you were to place a bet, AAPL still looks like a great one for another year at least. Beyond that and they better address a new market with a new product.

As others mentioned, give me that much money in the bank, that much continued revenue growth and profitability, and you can call me broken all day long. Microsoft is further past its big-growth phase than Apple and it still isn't "broken."
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:10 PM   #53
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Down over 12% at close....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/app...ews-2013-01-24

Quote:
Apple rocked by cuts, trips circuit breaker
Analysts slash price targets, estimates following lackluster results

By Dan Gallagher and William L. Watts, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Shares of Apple Inc. slid nearly 12% late Thursday afternoon, having tripped a Nasdaq circuit breaker earlier as analysts rushed to cut their price targets for the once-favored company, following a lackluster earnings report.

In the final 30 minutes of trades, Apple AAPL -0.10% was at $452.25 — down more than $61 from the previous close and about 35% below its all-time high just above $700 on the day of the iPhone 5 launch in September. Thursday was the largest dollar drop in the stock’s history, and the largest percent drop since May of 2010. The stock is now at its lowest level since February of last year.
....
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:51 PM   #54
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[G]ive me that much money in the bank, that much continued revenue growth and profitability, and you can call me broken all day long.
You need to separate AAPL from Apple. I don't see Apple falling off the face of the earth -- Atari still makes games. The brand is enduring. That doesn't mean you should own the stock. And THAT is what all the analysts are speculating about.

AAPL stakeholders have different investment objectives -- most people invest for growth and some people invest for income. Growth investors are wondering if AAPL is a $400 stock or a $1000 stock. They are not going to hang around for the performance we are reading about now. Dividend investors might be loading up on AAPL because it's on sale...except that there are a lot of better dividend plays. Even at today's price, you'd need to hold $450 worth of AAPL to collect $10.60 annually in dividends. To make that dividend with GE, you'd only need to own $307.54 worth of the stock. And GE has been paying dividends for a lot longer than AAPL. Another way to say that is that one can make 1.5x the dividend by selling AAPL and buying GE.

I think that is the broken we are talking about. I wonder if any of the people posting in this thread own AAPL (I don't). If anyone does, has this week's news changed your buy-hold-sell thinking?

For the record, I do own GE. I owned it at $37, $6, and now at $22. I am collecting it for the dividend, so dips look like opportunities or sales to me. I still would not buy AAPL. I think their markets are crowded, have very few barriers to entry, and that lots of companies want to test those barriers.
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Microsoft is further past its big-growth phase than Apple and it still isn't "broken."
Microsoft is different. People spend a LOT of money on Office and Windows despite the fact that there are free alternatives. Microsoft has no competitor in this area. They use other ventures (Xbox, Windows Phone, Surface) to increase the reach of their brand. People don't love Microsoft, but the need its products.

Last edited by wizwor; 01-24-2013 at 05:58 PM.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:54 PM   #55
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Apple makes more money in a quarter than Google in a year. Yah, they are doomed.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:02 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by wizwor View Post
Growth investors are wondering if AAPL is a $400 stock or a $1000 stock.
A well-informed tech industry investor would know AAPL is a $300 or less stock. Always has been.
Investors inflated a bubble and now the music has stopped and some are left without a chair. My heart fair bleeds for them.
Stock market speculation isn't for the faint of heart.

I just want to know in what universe they think they live in that the maps debacle, the XGA screen of the Mini, and the growing obsolescence of the MAC didn't factor into *their* expectations.

Me, I factor all those mistakes and look at the outcome and I have to say; "Day-amm, their brand loyalty rocks!"
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:24 PM   #57
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AAPL stakeholders have different investment objectives -- most people invest for growth and some people invest for income. Growth investors are wondering if AAPL is a $400 stock or a $1000 stock.
Aren't the growth investors the ones who ruined the wold economy? They want stock that can grow, and the stock grows faster because they want it. But when the value drops because of some legitimate reason, it will drop faster because the growth investors don't want the stock anymore.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:27 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by fjtorres View Post
A well-informed tech industry investor would know AAPL is a $300 or less stock. Always has been.
Investors inflated a bubble and now the music has stopped and some are left without a chair. My heart fair bleeds for them.
Stock market speculation isn't for the faint of heart.

I just want to know in what universe they think they live in that the maps debacle, the XGA screen of the Mini, and the growing obsolescence of the MAC didn't factor into *their* expectations.

Me, I factor all those mistakes and look at the outcome and I have to say; "Day-amm, their brand loyalty rocks!"
At $300, what is AAPL P/E? I think it's 10 at $450. Seems cheap in a vacuum. I won't pretend to be a well informed investor. I agree with your second point. AAPL has had a LOT of bad news of late. The problem with brand loyalty, is that people die or become satisfied -- both hurt sales.

I like anecdotes, so here is one for you...

When I bought my 286 computer it cost $1500. I bought it because it was as much computer as I could afford and would tide me over until the price of better computers fell. When I replaced that with a 486, I spent $2100 on the computer for the same reasons. I just paid $400 for an i5 computer. I could have afforded an i7, but I didn't need it. I may never buy another desktop. I'm just satisfied. This is good for me, but scary for Intel, Lenovo, and Staples. I suspect a lot of iToy users are pretty satisfied. That has to be scary for Apple.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:45 PM   #59
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The point is that investors look to the future, not the past. And Apple's prospects simply don't look as good as they did 12 months ago. The competition is a lot stronger and they have not shown that they can come up with significant new ideas in the post-Jobs era. As we see in these pages that doesn't rattle iFans unshakeable belief in THEIR company, but it is obvious investors think otherwise.

Time to get down to earth for Apple, they are following the path that Microsoft took. Good company, tremendously profitable, but their best days are behind them.

Yes, they are sitting on a truckload of cash. The operative word being 'sitting'. Why don't they do something useful with it? This is one of the differences between investors and others. Investors don't think it is a good sign that Apple can't find a good place to invest a good part of those giant cash reserves.

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Old 01-24-2013, 06:48 PM   #60
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The point is that investors look to the future, not the past. And Apple's prospects simply don't look as good as they did 12 months ago. The competition is a lot stronger and they have not shown that they can come up with significant new ideas in the post-Jobs era. As we see in these pages that doesn't rattle iFans unshakeable belief in THEIR company, but it is obvious investors think otherwise.

Time to get down to earth for Apple, they are following the path that Microsoft took.
Or unveil the next Amazing Thing.
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