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Old 01-16-2013, 09:59 AM   #61
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Just to clear up my view (I'm having a bad day, sorry if that came through).

I don't particularly care one way or another about this story or whether Apple respond to it.
What I do dislike is the modern trend for executives to have more concern about managing their share price than their company.
I don't think share price concerns should have any effect on a companies decision making, they should be focusing on the company itself, and increasing revenue and profit. Instead (fulled, no doubt, by share-price related bonuses), success is measured by whether the share price goes up or down.
Shareholders are rewarded through dividends, and the best way to increase dividends is to run a profitable company.
The success or failure or short-term speculators (where medium term would be years if not decades) should not affect business decisions.
Rant over.
(I also hate the modern 'journalism' that regards reporting rumours from another site as somehow being a real story. Second rant over too.)
murray, I understand where you're coming from, and to some extent I agree. But I'm not really talking about how a company should consider its stock prices when setting its business strategies. But rather about doing their individual stockholders a service in the event of critical misinformation.

And I'm harping on this only to point out that silence on the part of Apple tends to confirm the rumor. That's how I read their silence. And I'm sure many on Wall Street are reading it that way too.

As for journalists, to a large extent they've always used one another as sources -- ie, the AP, UPI and other wire services have frequently formed the basis of stories for many of the same mainstream newspapers.

--Pat
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Old 01-16-2013, 10:00 AM   #62
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What I do dislike is the modern trend for executives to have more concern about managing their share price than their company.

I don't think share price concerns should have any effect on a companies decision making, they should be focusing on the company itself, and increasing revenue and profit. Instead (fulled, no doubt, by share-price related bonuses), success is measured by whether the share price goes up or down.

Shareholders are rewarded through dividends, and the best way to increase dividends is to run a profitable company.
The success or failure or short-term speculators (where medium term would be years if not decades) should not affect business decisions.
Rant over.
(I also hate the modern 'journalism' that regards reporting rumours from another site as somehow being a real story. Second rant over too.)
I remember a newsmagazine show (maybe 60 Minutes) about this. Former AT&T employees were asked if they were stockholders, had they been stockholders, and why they sold their stock if the latter. Most had sold their stock at a point when they thought it was overpriced. The interviewer asked each if he realized this was the pressure that caused AT&T to take the actions that resulted in their termination. Good looks and uncomfortable responses.

CEOs are hired by shareholders. The boards tie compensation to stock price because they want the CEO to share their priorities. The only way to avoid this is to patronize privately held companies.
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Old 01-16-2013, 10:04 AM   #63
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CEOs are hired by shareholders. The boards tie compensation to stock price because they want the CEO to share their priorities.
And that worked when shareholders held stock for decades, so their interest was in the long term growth of the company.
Nowadays stocks are traded for speculation rather than investment, and all many shareholders are interested in is the greatest short-term result possible before the sell and move to something else. Those priorities are diametrically opposed to the priorities of a long-term owner.
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Old 01-16-2013, 10:07 AM   #64
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As for journalists, to a large extent they've always used one another as sources -- ie, the AP, UPI and other wire services have frequently formed the basis of stories for many of the same mainstream newspapers.
The 'problem' though, is secondary reporting.
That is, there is a story which is not verifiable enough for a newspaper to run it.
However, if a blog posts it, the newspaper will then run a 'X is reporting...' story, and report on the reporting. It is just an end-run around their obligations to do thorough research.
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Old 01-16-2013, 10:09 AM   #65
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What do you mean the jittery ones would have sold anyway? If Apple had come out right away on day 1 and said that the information was incorrect, then the jittery ones might have held on.

Regarding folks who bought less than a year ago, you think it's OK then that they may have taken a loss due to potential stock manipulation? How does the date of purchase make a stock loss due to stock manipulation any more or less acceptable?




Again, this isn't about the earnings report. AFAIK, they won't be putting in numbers for display orders in that report next week either. So it's not about telling then to wait next week for further numbers.



That chart is too small to read clearly. I can't make out what it's really saying. Unless it relates directly to first quarter orders for the iPhone 5 specifically, I'm not sure how it is very relevant to the rumors in question.


--Pat
Day 1 of what? The stock has been going down since October.

If that chart isn't clear, look here: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart...ormance-2013-1.

Maybe it's been going down because of the reaction to the new size of the iPhone; maybe it's been going down because of the amazing Apple maps. The reason why the latest values are important is that the stock went below $500, which is a psychological importance.

Rumors of Apple's downfall have been constant over the past few years, and the only reason why these look more important than the previous ones is because they coincided with the stock drop below an important psychological value.
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Old 01-16-2013, 10:10 AM   #66
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And that worked when shareholders held stock for decades, so their interest was in the long term growth of the company.
Nowadays stocks are traded for speculation rather than investment, and all many shareholders are interested in is the greatest short-term result possible before the sell and move to something else. Those priorities are diametrically opposed to the priorities of a long-term owner.
I agree. I have long held the position that short term trading is unhealthy. I would support a per share tax on transactions to discourage this. That's the only regulation I could stomach, though. I say that understanding that such a tax would make it more difficult for startups to attract capital and thus would slow innovation.
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Old 01-16-2013, 10:12 AM   #67
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How so in cases such as this regarding a potential incorrect assertion of fact?
I assume you agree that there are a great many facts about any company which, if known, would significantly affect stock price. I assume you also agree that knowledge of many of these would give advantage to a competitor.

A expectation that incorrect rumours will be denied gives a competitor the ability to go fishing for such facts, and the ability (through absence of denial) to infer which of those facts are true.

As a (very poor :-) ) example, let's say I'm an Apple competitor and interested to know if Tim Cook is leaving - I simply start a rumour saying that inside sources report that he is leaving. This meets your criteria - it's a statement of fact and it would affect stock price. With your approach, Apple would be forced to confirm or deny this.

A similar approach could have been taken in the past with regard to Steve Jobs' health.

There are lots of other things in different areas which would also be interesting - even in the case of the rumours in question, don't you think that knowing whether or not they are true is of interest to Apple's competitors?

/JB

Last edited by jbjb; 01-16-2013 at 10:15 AM. Reason: clumsy phrasing improved
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Old 01-16-2013, 10:25 AM   #68
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Shareholders are rewarded through dividends, and the best way to increase dividends is to run a profitable company.
I agree with almost everything you say in this thread, but felt I had to point out one thing. It's not uncommon for companies (particularly in the tech field) not to pay (or to pay minimal) dividends and for shareholders to get their reward entirely or mostly through stock price growth.

Regulations in many (most/all?) jurisdictions require directors to run the company in the interest of the shareholders, and don't make the distinction between long-term and short-term holders.

That's really just an aside, though - I completely agree with you on your principal point that it would be much better for directors to concentrate on building a sustainable, profitable, growing business and pay less attention to short term stock fluctuation.

The UK used to have a Capital Gains Tax system which encouraged longer-term holding of shares ("taper relief"), but that was stopped in 2008.

/JB
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Old 01-16-2013, 10:25 AM   #69
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I assume you agree that there are a great many facts about any company which, if known, would significantly affect stock price. I assume you also agree that knowledge of many of these would give advantage to a competitor.

A expectation that incorrect rumours will be denied gives a competitor the ability to go fishing for such facts, and the ability (through absence of denial) to infer which of those facts are true.
Completely but this makes me think of a short story by Asimov Evidence.

Now back to the usual rumors and speculations.
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Old 01-16-2013, 11:34 AM   #70
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I assume you agree that there are a great many facts about any company which, if known, would significantly affect stock price. I assume you also agree that knowledge of many of these would give advantage to a competitor. ...
jbjb, you have a point, but companies publicly deny rumors all the time. Here are a few examples from Apple ...

On the iPhone Mini:

Quote:
As stories of an upcoming launch of a new, more affordable iPhone mount, Apple's Senior Vice President of Marketing moves to quash rumors.

Speaking to the Shanghai Evening News, Phil Schiller said: "Despite the popularity of cheap smartphones, this will never be the future of Apple's products. In fact, although Apple's [global] market share of smartphones is just about 20%, we own 75% of the profit."
On bogus layoff rumors:

Quote:
For the second time in a week, Apple has denied rumors that it has laid off workers.

On Friday, Valleywag reported that a tipster informed it of layoffs in the Mac Hardware and Pro Applications group, describing Apple's Cupertino, Calif., headquarters as having "lots of security around" and saying "it seems like a lot" of employees were affected. Earlier in the week Valleywag published a similar report that 50 sales employees were laid off from Apple.

Apple spokesman Steve Dowling denied both reports Friday. "It's not true," he said, referring to the rumors involving both rounds of supposed job cuts.
On music being sold via iTunes:

Quote:
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Apple is denying recent reports that the Universal Music Group isn't planning to renew its contract to sell music through iTunes, stating "We are still negotiating with Universal". Sources (such as the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, etc.) had said previously that Universal planned to end its contract with Apple, continue selling music via iTunes only as they saw fit, and exercise the option to grant exclusive rights to other online retailers.
And ironically, a rumor regarding Jobs' health:

Quote:
A rumour on CNN's citizen journalism website claiming Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs had a heart attack briefly caused the company's stock to drop to an 18-month low on Friday.

Apple denied the report, and shares in the company have bounced back from a low of $94.65 US to finish the day at $97.27 US. The story first appeared as a brief on iReport, a citizen journalism website affiliated with Time Warner Inc.'s CNN that launched in February 2008 with the tagline "Unedited. Unfiltered. News."
That's just what comes up dong a quick search on google ("Apple denies" rumors) ... and there are a lot more where those came from.

So denying incorrect assertions of fact is not new for Apple, especially for those bogus rumors which gain a lot of traction. Rightly or not, their silence on this latest rumor will only be read as an indication that the information is correct.

--Pat
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Old 01-16-2013, 11:38 AM   #71
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jbjb, you have a point, but companies publicly deny rumors all the time.
My point doesn't mean that companies can't deny *some* incorrect rumours - they just have to avoid setting the expectation that they will *always* deny incorrect rumours. It's that expectation which allows inferences to be drawn from an absence of denial.

/JB
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Old 01-16-2013, 11:44 AM   #72
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Day 1 of what? The stock has been going down since October.

If that chart isn't clear, look here: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart...ormance-2013-1.

Maybe it's been going down because of the reaction to the new size of the iPhone; maybe it's been going down because of the amazing Apple maps. The reason why the latest values are important is that the stock went below $500, which is a psychological importance.

Rumors of Apple's downfall have been constant over the past few years, and the only reason why these look more important than the previous ones is because they coincided with the stock drop below an important psychological value.
Thanks for the second chart. It's much better.

If their stock has been falling due to tangible, real things (ie, size of phone, maps app) then that is different than it falling due to misinformation. You don't need false information to contribute to a plunging stock price.

Apple has not hesitated in the past to dispel rumors that could impact its stock price (see preceding post) so I'm not sure why they would hesitate now. One can only read their silence as an indication the rumors are more true than not.

--Pat
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Old 01-16-2013, 11:48 AM   #73
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My point doesn't mean that companies can't deny *some* incorrect rumours - they just have to avoid setting the expectation that they will *always* deny incorrect rumours. It's that expectation which allows inferences to be drawn from an absence of denial.

/JB

Well, my point is, if they can deny a harmful rumor, they will. If they can't deny it because it is true, they won't attempt to.

--Pat
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Old 01-16-2013, 11:52 AM   #74
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Well, my point is, if they can deny a harmful rumor, they will.
We're going round in circles here!

My point is that they can't afford to set an expectation that they will always deny incorrect harmful rumours, for the reasons set out above.

/JB
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Old 01-16-2013, 11:56 AM   #75
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We're going round in circles here!

My point is that they can't afford to set an expectation that they will always deny incorrect harmful rumours, for the reasons set out above.

/JB
But that's exactly what they've done in the past.

And, as I said, their silence will be read as admission that the rumor is true.

--Pat
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