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Old 01-06-2013, 10:35 AM   #31
fjtorres
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As I expected, my estimate that 30% of the population might benefit from a dedicated reading device looks a bit high.
This vintage IPSOS report from the time of the Kindle introduction (2007) is a nice snapshot of people's reading habits:
http://surveys.ap.org/data/Ipsos/nat...%20Topline.pdf

In a Kindle-less world, 27% of the population read zero books in a year and another 37% read less than 7. For a total of 64% reading less than 7 books. Only 27% of the sample reported reading at least one book a month.

(Note that the listed percentages are fractions of the 73% that *did* read, not of the sample.)

I expect that the mainstreaming of ebooks has since changed people's reading habits but doubt that it has turned many nonreaders into readers or casual readers into avid readers. Throw whatever fudge fact you like but I doubt even somebody that reads one book every two months is very likely to drop even $49 on a dedicated reading device.

So the most recent ereader penetration numbers (22% was it?) has already captured the equivalent of 80% of the book-a-month population. Definitely not much room for explosive growth, there.
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Old 01-06-2013, 10:54 AM   #32
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I have a 650 and an iPad. Just because I like playing Angry Birds does not mean I enjoy crap such as Honey Boo Boo. I read mostly with my 650 and sometimes on my iPhone. But really, to say that because people are wanting a multifunction device instead of a single purpose device doesn't mean we are low brow and like reality TV.
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Old 01-06-2013, 10:56 AM   #33
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So the most recent ereader penetration numbers (22% was it?) has already captured the equivalent of 80% of the book-a-month population. Definitely not much room for explosive growth, there.
There is, but NOT in those markets where saturation has already been perhaps been reached or is approaching (such as the US and UK). But there are huge untapped markets - eg Amazon have just opened an eBook store in Brazil - the 5th largest country in the world, in terms of population (about 190 million) and almost totally untapped when it comes to ebooks.
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Old 01-06-2013, 11:26 AM   #34
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Some of us were reading eBooks on small LCD devices known as PDAs long before eInk readers or tablets even existed. Granted the PDA users probably were mostly professionals and techie types who used them more for work than entertainment in the early days, say the mid-1990s. But by the time that eInk readers were being released many PDA users were using their PDAs for entertainment purposes. And speaking of entertainment, seems like reading can be considered entertainment in many cases! At any rate PDAs with LCD screens and entertainment type apps were used for reading by many long before dedicated eInk eReaders and even longer before iPhones and tablets became all the rage. Seems to me that dedicated eInk eReaders are located historically in the middle of eBook reading on handheld devices.

Perhaps the dedicated eInk eReaders have just been a temporary reading device type located between PDAs with very low resolution and low pixel density and modern tablets with very high resolution and high pixel density. EInk is still the best high lit area reading device IMO. But eInk technology does not seem to be improving much. EInk designers are not making quantum leaps in resolution and page refresh speed because they have hit a technological wall that seems impenetrable. Any new eInk devices are going to have lackluster improvements. EInk is/was/ and always will be merely a niche product for people who read a lot.

What that article failed to mention is that eBooks now out sell print books in the USA. I don't think the decline of eInk devices will impact that at all. EInk readers introduced a lot of people who read to eBooks and helped more than any other device type to make eBooks so popular, but eBooks will continue to grow in popularity regardless of whether eInk lives on or simply fades away to a grey that is too dim to read any more.

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Old 01-06-2013, 11:53 AM   #35
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There is, but NOT in those markets where saturation has already been perhaps been reached or is approaching (such as the US and UK). But there are huge untapped markets - eg Amazon have just opened an eBook store in Brazil - the 5th largest country in the world, in terms of population (about 190 million) and almost totally untapped when it comes to ebooks.
The "debate" (from the source) is about the US market, which is plateauing. The global market is, indeed, a whole different story but it is terra incognita.

Amazon just opened in Brazil, yes. They also tried to open in India and the local protectionists got a law blocking them.
The have issues in China, Japan, and other places, and not always because they are american. Some places the PTB are just protecting the pbook establishment more than blocking foreigners. Other places they are propping up local ebook players, publishers, or B&M retailers. (Or looking for substantial kickbacks.)

Big markets exist but how accessible they may be to *anybody* is undetermined.

Last edited by fjtorres; 01-06-2013 at 11:55 AM.
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:25 PM   #36
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I know that no one in my family has purchased an ereader since June 2011. So, I guess I need to upgrade my Kindle Keyboard.
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Old 01-06-2013, 02:09 PM   #37
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What that article failed to mention is that eBooks now out sell print books in the USA. I don't think the decline of eInk devices will impact that at all.
But they don't; not even close. E-books have 22% of the market in the US.

It's only on Amazon that they are actually outselling paper books.
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Old 01-06-2013, 02:19 PM   #38
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But they don't; not even close. E-books have 22% of the market in the US.

It's only on Amazon that they are actually outselling paper books.
But that is the total book market. It includes textbooks, coffee table books, etc.
Narrative text reading, the penetration is much higher: Romance is well over 50%. SF and Fantasy not far behind. LitFic much lower.

How important ebooks are is a function of the genre.
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Old 01-06-2013, 02:21 PM   #39
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I hate reality shows, when I sit down to watch something on the tube, which is extremely rare the last thing I want is reality, I deal with reality every day so that's exactly what I don't want in shows, I want the exact opposite. I want something so divorced from reality that it bares no resemblance to reality. Honey Boo Boo, never heard of the show, looked it up on wikipedia and the show lost me at the word reality then lost me again at the words beauty pageant.
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Old 01-06-2013, 02:35 PM   #40
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Full android 4.2 STBs are (allegedly) coming that effectively turn your HDTV into a Tablet. I see interesting possibilities...
Like sitting two feet from a 42" TV so you can touch the screen, and having to wipe the fingerprints off every day so you can still see what it's displaying?

Back on the e-reader front, I see no reason to buy another Kindle for at least a couple of years. I'd need to see a much better screen or a much better battery life to replace it before it dies.
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Old 01-06-2013, 02:46 PM   #41
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If the ereader is heading on the way out, then I really need to go and stock up on all of my favorite eink devices. I can't imagine only having tablets to choose from, as far as reading devices go - and I for one have never, and will never, watch Honey Boo Boo. I have too much self-respect for that.
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Old 01-06-2013, 03:14 PM   #42
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Like sitting two feet from a 42" TV so you can touch the screen, and having to wipe the fingerprints off every day so you can still see what it's displaying?
Like sitting 6 feet back from a Skype session, a Hulu video stream, or a Bejeweled game, controlled by a remote control. With full Play store access it can be used as a Roku style streaming box or a music player for Pandora or spotify.

No touch required. Lots of Android apps work just fine without direct manipulation.

Open minds see possibilities where others see mockery.
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Old 01-06-2013, 03:17 PM   #43
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If the ereader is heading on the way out, then I really need to go and stock up on all of my favorite eink devices. I can't imagine only having tablets to choose from, as far as reading devices go...
eInk will be with us for a while so you shouldn't need to rush. (The pessimists are estimating annual sales of "only" 17 million a year.)
But don't be surprised if you find yourself *liking* a future LCD display.
Things change.
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Old 01-06-2013, 03:25 PM   #44
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The question is not "dedicated vs. general purpose devices", it's "eye strain vs. no eye strain", as anybody who reads regularly knows. Currently, the only technology that causes no eye strain is eink.
Tablets are Ok for a lot of things, but not for reading IMO. Should eink readers disappear, I wouldn't buy a tablet, I would go back to paper books.
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Old 01-06-2013, 03:57 PM   #45
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I hate reality shows, when I sit down to watch something on the tube, which is extremely rare the last thing I want is reality, I deal with reality every day so that's exactly what I don't want in shows, I want the exact opposite. I want something so divorced from reality that it bares no resemblance to reality. Honey Boo Boo, never heard of the show, looked it up on wikipedia and the show lost me at the word reality then lost me again at the words beauty pageant.
You think Reality Shows are Reality???/
I am from the south and the commercials for this show disgust me.

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The question is not "dedicated vs. general purpose devices", it's "eye strain vs. no eye strain", as anybody who reads regularly knows. Currently, the only technology that causes no eye strain is eink.
Tablets are Ok for a lot of things, but not for reading IMO. Should eink readers disappear, I wouldn't buy a tablet, I would go back to paper books.
I have been reading constantly from a Nook Color and now a Nook HD+. I do not get eye strain from this. Granted most people get eye strain, but not all.
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