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Old 04-08-2012, 12:12 AM   #16
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If I had a dollar for every time I heard apple was going broke I'd be a rich dude.
Anyways if Apple does go bankrupt...MS or Google can give them 150 million dollars or so.......Like the last time it happened and that should keep them a float until the next big lemming craze in Tech comes about....
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Old 04-08-2012, 12:49 AM   #17
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Barring some world-ending apocalypse, I expect both to be around long after I'm gone (which hopefully won't be for a while yet).
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Old 04-08-2012, 01:25 AM   #18
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Apple would have to miss a lot of boats to lose their loyal following, and Android has spread and diversified so much it would be hard to kill. I don't think either of them is going anywhere any time soon. I could see Windows picking up some phone/tablet marketshare in the next year or so, but not enough to make Apple or Google sweat (not that Google has much invested in the success of the Android platform, anyway--it's already served their purpose of keeping them in the mobile ad game and keeping any one company from getting to build the mobile web).
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Old 04-08-2012, 02:34 AM   #19
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Anyways if Apple does go bankrupt...MS or Google can give them 150 million dollars or so.......Like the last time it happened and that should keep them a float until the next big lemming craze in Tech comes about....
Apple is worth loads more than MS and has more money on the bank as well. More likely this time round that Apple will bail out MS.

I also wonder how long this these tech giants will last. Nothing lasts forever but some companies have the ability to change. Look at Unilever. They started out as a whaling company.
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Old 04-08-2012, 09:34 PM   #20
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Nothing lasts forever. That said, Apple has set the design for the next ten years, minimum....and Google copied it ala Windows. Apple is better prepared for the Post PC world than Google, but Google will likely retain it's lead in smartphones.

The only mystery left is whether Msft will succeed with Windows 8 for pc's, phones and tablets.

Even if Msft comes back with a winner, it won't be to dominate, but to participate.

Apple, by not licensing it's OS will never dominate in Mkt share. But the have a nice first mover position in tablets and phones to keep them rolling in the dough.

Will be interested to see what they have up their sleeves for disrupting the TV market

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Old 04-08-2012, 10:09 PM   #21
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I also wonder how long this these tech giants will last. Nothing lasts forever but some companies have the ability to change. Look at Unilever. They started out as a whaling company.
Or Nokia, they started as a paper company.
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Old 04-09-2012, 12:03 AM   #22
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If we look at history, we see that an idea, a company, a product or even a country that seems so dominant at any one moment may be radically changed in 5 or 10 years.
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Old 04-09-2012, 12:30 AM   #23
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I'm guessing that the market isn't going to change very much over the next 5 to 10 years. The question that you have to ask yourself is: what's the biggest problem with the technology today that will lead to the disruptive technology of tomorrow. In the case of Apple and Google, it was a fragmented mobile phone market and a lack of usable interfaces for the tablet market. Each company built a solution and got it to market in force before the competition did, so they will dominate for a while. Their platforms are also sufficiently flexible to allow for future growth and innovation to keep competitors at bay.

Quite frankly, I think that we're going to see a lot more disruption in the ereader market. People have demonstrated an eagerness for the transition to ebooks yet there is still plenty of room for innovation.
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Old 04-09-2012, 03:51 AM   #24
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With Steve Jobs no longer there to lead, I don't have the same faith in Apple I used to.
Nothing like a psychotic despot to get things really rolling. And I mean that in a good way. IKEA works on the exact same premise.
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Old 04-09-2012, 03:56 AM   #25
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Or Nokia, they started as a paper company.
Actually rubber boots, tyres and processing machinery for the paper industry. They never produced paper themselves.
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Old 04-09-2012, 04:34 AM   #26
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I think the more valid question would be how long will Windows and Microsoft last as most other companies are slowly taking over areas where it dominates. Yes it is still dominates but in areas that are slowly loosing relevancy.
Apple is hardware company despite making huge profits it still has not reached it growth peak. And every 2-3 years it is entering new markets so I don't expect it to die out anytime soon. 10 years from now I expect it to be making self driving cars.
Where as google is concerned although it dominats search and advertising it also has not reached its growth peak more than 70% of the world population still does not use the internet for financial transactions. And as the smartphone penetration and mobile internet speeds increase so will Google grow.

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Old 04-09-2012, 05:03 AM   #27
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I was reading this thread and there are a couple of things here I would like to point out.

There is so much buzz around this tablet space and the "post pc era" (which is a term/concept that made me laugh ever since I heared Jobs use it for the first time in an obvious attempt to make it seem as if the PC is 'out of date') that I feel people are loosing perspective...

Let's look at some numbers, shall we...

91% of all computers in the world are running windows. That's well over 1.5 billion machines.
77% of all devices connecting to the internet are in fact windows machines. This is again well over a billion machines.
38% of those machines are running windows 7. Which is an incredible amount of licenses sold of microsoft's latest OS.

Considering these numbers... anyone who claims that microsoft is "declining" deserves nothing but ridicule.

Now, let's look at this tablet space...

In TOTAL, apple has sold little over 50 million ipads.
While that certainly is a big number which off course made them a load of cash, it pales in comparision to the sales figures of windows 7.

If we look at a global market with a potential of 2 billion... that 50 million is nothing. It's a niche market.

Even if we add up all tablets in the entire global market together, it still pales in comparision to the amount of licenses sold of windows 7.

All this talk about apple having "won" the tablet race is a gross exageration. The truth is that what we saw in this mobile computing market (not phones, but actual computing) are only baby steps.

Truth is that this "post pc era" is simply a move from bulky desktops to more portable computers. The problem with iOs and Android is that they are not offering an actual replacement for bulky desktops and laptops. ipads and droid tablets are a companion of bulky computers - NOT a replacement.

I don't know of a single person who threw out his computer and replaced it with a tablet. Not a single one. Why is that?

Simple... These tablets are what I like to call overglorified media-players.
95% of the apps on the stores are pure bullocks: fart apps, dumb games, social stuff,...
The Os's are much to simplified and limited. An ipad cannot replace a mac. But a windows 8 device.... IS a windows machine.

People have been calling Windows Vista a "fail". And they were right. For microsoft standards!

The truth is... if windows 8 "fails" just as much as windows vista.... Then windows 8 will instantly burry apple's AND google's market share.

Another thing I notice in the media is all this talk about how tablets are eating away laptop/desktop sales. I heavily disagree with that, although I certainly believe that some people postpone buying a new pc after buying an 800$ tablet.

But what is the actual cause of declining pc sales these past 2-3 years?
Well... I seem to remember that the world was/is in some financial crisis.
Hard disks, still widely used in desktops and laptops, have almost trippled in price since those floods in Thailand. How on earth can people simply ignore those 2 facts and simply blame declining sales on tablet sales?

One word: hype.

The fact of the matter is that a windows 8 device (most of which will come with a docking that allows you to attach big monitors, mouse and keyboard) is the only TRUE "post pc device".

A windows 8 device is an actual replacement for a real PC. It IS a real pc.

If you have such a "tablet", you can actually afford to NOT buy a laptop or desktop. Because your win8 device can be both.

Based on all this, here's my prediction for the next decade:

- Apple will continue being successfull in a consumer space and make a lot of money.
- The same goes for Google.
- The professional world will continue to run on windows.
- Home users who do more then post on facebook, check email and surf the web will continue buying windows machines.

To me, the future is obvious. The market share numbers I posted above will not change. Windows will continue to really dominate.
Windows 8 will be known as "another vista" and yet be more successfull then any other "mobile" system on the planet. Windows 9 will extend the new WinRT API's to the desktop (with which we engineers will create sandboxed desktop applications that WILL run on ARM, be distributed through the store and have sort of the same style as the Zune software) which will give window 9 similar sales as windows 7. Windows 10 or windows 11 will totally drop win32 support.

And by that time, we will have hardcore apple fanboys saying the same stuff they do today: apple invented tablets and microsoft stole everything, completely ignoring the fact that windows 8 and metro were allready in development before the first ipad was even released.
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Old 04-09-2012, 05:24 AM   #28
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Old 04-09-2012, 11:13 AM   #29
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For me, I think it will be a while.

The biggest thing, is that most of the other companies let things get stagnate. I mean, before iPhone and Android, did you really see any major advances come along? There wasn't much in the way of earth shattering changes. Also, you saw more of a shift in focus in marketing. Before, most smartphones were aimed at businesses, and most consumer features were rather poorly done (you ever try using Symbian's media player? It rather sucked). You had two huge companies come in, with devices that were totally different than what existed prior, and worked to get the consumers, instead of companies.
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Old 04-09-2012, 11:59 AM   #30
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Actually rubber boots, tyres and processing machinery for the paper industry. They never produced paper themselves.
According to this, they started first as a paper company and the rubber stuff came later.

Quote:
How apt that Nokia begins by making paper – one of the most influential communications technologies in history.
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