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Old 11-22-2007, 12:20 AM   #1
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Conspiracy Theory on Kindle being Sold Out

My thoery is that the Kindle isn't really sold out....but rather they didn't feel like paying for the 2 day shipping. So what they are doing is shipping it ground to local distribution centers....and then sending it in "2 days" after it goes in stock. This will save them a couple of million dollars.
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Old 11-22-2007, 12:31 AM   #2
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Are you serious?
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Old 11-22-2007, 12:37 AM   #3
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The problem is probably the eInk screen. Not enough screens get produced so simply not enough Kindle devices are available.
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Old 11-22-2007, 12:39 AM   #4
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Old 11-22-2007, 01:13 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markbot View Post
My thoery is that the Kindle isn't really sold out....but rather they didn't feel like paying for the 2 day shipping. So what they are doing is shipping it ground to local distribution centers....and then sending it in "2 days" after it goes in stock. This will save them a couple of million dollars.
I think more likely they just didn't think this many would sell so quickly.
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Old 11-22-2007, 02:57 AM   #6
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But they aren't saying how many. That is kind of funny of Amazon to make a press release saying the Kindle was sold out in 5 hours and then not saying how many units that amounts to.

I don't think it was many thousands of units, probably max a few tens of thousands of units I would guess.

And yeah, it's probably hard for PVI in Taiwan to keep up with the E-Ink screen production no matter how much money Amazon is paying them upfront. The factories making those E-Ink screens probably simply aren't big enough to produce E-Ink screens in quantities of millions, probably that current factories have a capacity limit of some hundred thousands a year. But also probably that in preparation for the release of the Kindle, that in Taiwan, PVI has invested whatever hundreds of millions required to ramp up the production, probably all paid for in advance by Amazon, Philips, Sony and some others..

I'm just guessing here, but I think in terms of risk taking and physical capacity to mass produce, the Kindle production has to be gradually ramped up. A bit like the OLPC XO computer also. For that computer for example, first weeks mass production capacity is only something like 40 thousand units per month, then it can gradually jump to 400 thousand units per month. Simply something to do with even the largest screen factories in the world, cannot just jump start mass production of new technologies from day one. Cause a full capacity specialized factory to produce those new kinds of screens such as the XO screen and E-Ink screens costs billions to make. So unless Amazon believed so much in the Kindle months in advance to pay in advance the construction of those specialized factories to have a full production capacity in time for Christmas, then the only thing to work would be gradual ramp up of production adjusted after the initial market demand, and it probably has to take at the minimum a few weeks for a new production cycle to result in new batches of shipped products.

I'm totally guessing here, but possibly Amazon is not going to satisfy all the demand for Christmas (it will be sold out), but are counting on large demand up till Christmas to make them confident about ramping up production to maximum capacity to be delivered after Christmas.

Last edited by Charbax; 11-22-2007 at 03:08 AM.
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Old 11-22-2007, 03:31 AM   #7
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I think it was similar with the other E Ink reader when they came out. The first Sony Reader (PRS-500) was sold out in a couple of hours (if I remember correctly). And orders for the Bookeen Cybook Gen3 have also been delayed.
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Old 11-22-2007, 08:07 AM   #8
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Companies hold sales numbers pretty close to the vest on innovative new products. Look at Sony...as far as I know they haven't released any sales numbers for the Reader.
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Old 11-22-2007, 08:16 AM   #9
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Old 11-22-2007, 10:28 AM   #10
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I also think it may have something to do with the Kindle being on the cover of Newsweek, on Good Morning America, NPR, CBS News, etc. I never saw this sort of advertising blitz for the Sony Reader and it sold out quick too. So I'm not really surprised that the Kindle sold out so fast.

To be honest, I am surprised that I got one already. I am usually the one that misses out on these sort of things...
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Old 11-22-2007, 11:05 AM   #11
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Most likely they have a staged delivery system from China of so many units per shipment/week. They had a backlog/buildup prior to launch. They delay they first posted was less than a week until more were available.

It just sold well.
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Old 11-22-2007, 12:33 PM   #12
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Quote:
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Most likely they have a staged delivery system from China of so many units per shipment/week. They had a backlog/buildup prior to launch. They delay they first posted was less than a week until more were available.

It just sold well.
That's my thought. Hence they can replenish quickly. It doesn't help that they've adopted a pretty laborious packout concept, too. Each one has to be individually loaded with personalizing information. I don't know what their warehouse automation looks like but that sounds like rather a new routine.
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Old 11-22-2007, 12:36 PM   #13
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Wouldn't you think they'd handle that by scanning a barcode with the serial number and matching to the customer's order at the time of shipping, so the information would be picked up by the Whispernet when the unit is turned on?
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Old 11-22-2007, 12:44 PM   #14
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Yes which is more than they have to do with other items they pack and ship. If I order a book, they grab that book and throw it in a box. They don't have to grab a specific copy of it.
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Old 11-22-2007, 12:46 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alisa View Post
That's my thought. Hence they can replenish quickly. It doesn't help that they've adopted a pretty laborious packout concept, too. Each one has to be individually loaded with personalizing information. I don't know what their warehouse automation looks like but that sounds like rather a new routine.
From what I got with mine, I don't think you are correct.

The fancy white box came in a protective cardboard sleeve. On the bottom of the box was the SN of my device. he most likely way they did it was scan the shipping slip, scan the box, and place both in shipping box. I doubt that the info was loaded directly. It was probably sent over the Whispernet.
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