*Steampunk* Coiner Predicts the Death of eReaders

[rogue_librarian]

Originally Posted by Harmon

The sweet spot seems to be the 6 inch grayscale non-LCD device. I expect the price of the entry level EBR to settle down somewhere under $100. I expect some marginal increase in screen resolution and contrast. I expect some improvement in the operating system and navigation functions.

I agree, in principle, but the price is certainly going to be lower than that, more like in the 30$-50$ region, in bulk. Also, my prediction is semi-ruggedness (no more breakable parts) in the mid-term.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by rogue_librarian

Also, my predictions is semi-ruggedness

I wish. But truly rugged tech is still really really expensive.

People don't seem to want to spend the high premium for ruggedness, and ruggedness won't get cheaper until more people start buying it.

The military gets crucified over spending what they do for well-built gear, and despite the fact that drivers walk away from IndyCar crashes at 200MPH, people won't/can't pay to have their personal autos built similarly.
Even Panasonic Toughbooks are out of line for most folks.

Add to this the theory that manufactures would rather have devices break now and then so that people will buy replacements, and I can't see a way for it to happen in the foreseeable future.

[rogue_librarian]

Originally Posted by ApK

But truly rugged tech is still really really expensive.

Which is why I said "semi". One of the next generations of eink displays will probably do away with the glass coating. Prototypes exist already, as you know.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by rogue_librarian

Which is why I said "semi". One of the next generations of eink displays will probably do away with the glass coating. Prototypes exist already, as you know.

Actually, I've not been able to keep current on what's actually been prototyped and what's still just marketing vaporware...I still have images in my head of that video of the kid unfolding the smart-paper.
When I think "semi rugged" I think "rubber bumpers and clear plastic over the screen" like my Casio watch.
For a watch, it's pretty good, but for an e-reader, I'm dreaming of something more substantial, like you can put it in your pants pocket or toss it in your pack with out a second thought.

[rkomar]

Originally Posted by ApK

...people won't/can't pay to have their personal autos built similarly.

I agree with most everything you said, but in this case, I think people wouldn't want to crawl through the cross braces in the doorways.

[rogue_librarian]

Originally Posted by ApK

For a watch, it's pretty good, but for an e-reader, I'm dreaming of something more substantial, like you can put it in your pants pocket or toss it in your pack with out a second thought.

I'm thinking something like this:

[ApK]

Originally Posted by rkomar

I agree with most everything you said, but in this case, I think people wouldn't want to crawl through the cross braces in the doorways.

That, and the helmet and HANS devices would clash with business suits.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by rogue_librarian

I'm thinking something like this:

Ooh. I watched the first minute and that was enough to make me smile.

When I first heard him start talking about plastic, I got nervous because it brought to mind CD/DVD material...polycarbonate is supposed to be tough, but one moment of mishandling and it might as well have been made of butterfly wings and wishful thinking.

But then he said "the intent is to create a product that is almost indestructible."
I want one.

[GA Russell]

Originally Posted by djgreedo

Who is going to market a $100 e-ink reader when they can sell a $120 tablet that can be used as an e-ink reader AND a tablet...?

...most people would prefer "a+b+c" rather than just "a" considering the prices would be practically identical.

Wait a second, dj! What makes you think that when that day comes that the suitable tablet costs only $120, the eBook reader will still cost $100?

Originally Posted by ApK

That, and the helmet and HANS devices would clash with business suits.

I met Jim Downing, the inventor/developer of the HANS device, when he raced at Road Atlanta, circa 1992!

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by GA Russell

Wait a second, dj! What makes you think that when that day comes that the suitable tablet costs only $120, the eBook reader will still cost $100?



I met Jim Downing, the inventor/developer of the HANS device, when he raced at Road Atlanta, circa 1992!

Exactly -- the day a suitable, quality tablet costs 120 they will be giving away e-ink devices with the purchase of 3 books.

[tompe]

Originally Posted by GA Russell

Wait a second, dj! What makes you think that when that day comes that the suitable tablet costs only $120, the eBook reader will still cost $100?

Because the demand for an eBook reader will not be so high the cost to produce one will be much higher.

[Harmon]

Originally Posted by rogue_librarian

I agree, in principle, but the price is certainly going to be lower than that, more like in the 30$-50$ region, in bulk. Also, my prediction is semi-ruggedness (no more breakable parts) in the mid-term.

I dunno. Electronic devices do get cheaper with the passage of time, but then they seem to stabilize around a pricepoint that is maintained through the addition of more features or better technology.

Apple is the master of this. It's been selling computers & iPods at particular pricepoints for years, and it looks like they are doing the same for iPads. (It's not so clear with iPhones because of the complication of the phone plan upgrades, but I think that, sans plans, the pricepoint has stabilized.)

If what Amazon was selling was the ink, then, like with printers, I'd expect the price of the EBR to be pushed down to the cost of making & delivering the device to consumers of ink. That would be your 30-50 range, I think.

But I read somewhere that Bezos has made the Kindle EBR division a separate profit center within Amazon, & if that's the case, then the pricepoint will be the one that maximizes the profit on the sale of Kindles. I have no knowledge on which to predict what that price would be, but why should that stop me? I say, 75 bucks. That's a pricepoint at which you buy Kindles for other people for their birthday, or get one for everyone in the family.

[GA Russell]

Originally Posted by Harmon

I dunno. Electronic devices do get cheaper with the passage of time, but then they seem to stabilize around a pricepoint that is maintained through the addition of more features or better technology.

Apple is the master of this. It's been selling computers & iPods at particular pricepoints for years, and it looks like they are doing the same for iPads...

Harmon, I agree with you regarding a particular company, but not in regard to a product taken as an industry.

For example, Texas Instruments still is able to sell relatively expensive calculators by over the years adding functions, but the simple calculator is made and sold by someone else for a buck at Walmart.

Apple seems to keep the price of its standard iPod at $150, but there are others such as the Sansa Clip+ which sell for less than $50 which aficionadoes claim are better.

So I can see Amazon keeping the Kindle at $100 (or your $75), but I see somebody making a simple eBook reader for less and less as time goes by.

As I have said elsewhere, I predict that for the foreseeable future, the companies will introduce new models at the $100 price point. It will be the "last year's models" which will see their prices go down and down. Why, this week Borders.com is selling last year's Kobo for $59.99!

[HansTWN]

Actually e-ink has expanded into many areas. It is perfect for many other applications because it draws no power to display an image, but you can still change the image later. Examples are signs and merchandise tags. So e-ink production will be increasing exponentially.