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Old 10-11-2010, 09:55 PM   #1
tech_au
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Ebook reader mainstream adoption

I came across an excellent news article by Gartner Research that has developed a graph which plots the current adoption of various technologies such as 3D TV, Ipads and ebook readers and many other technologies.
According to them ebook readers are about 2-5 years away from mainstream acceptance and 3D TV and IPads are at the peak of their initial hype.

Go to: http://www.smarthouse.com.au/TVs_And...ustry/D2R4C8K7

to see the graph and new story.
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Old 10-12-2010, 12:41 AM   #2
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Interesting graph!
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Old 10-12-2010, 03:54 AM   #3
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It's a bit odd to presume that every technology will go through a 'trough of disillusionment' in exactly the same way: surely there must have been technologies that have different shaped graphs for how expectations developed.

I think SmartHouse is right about 3D TV. The manufacturers seem to want to force them on consumers, who by and large have zero interest in this technology. Most people imagine that 3D filming will have a similar effect on the quality of plot, characterisation etc. to that special fx had in the seventies, only worse.

I don't imagine they're right about the iPad, though. Noticed in the Next catalogue (UK clothing retailer) that they were selling an OEM iPad rip-off tablet PC. Many are sick of having to sit at a computer - even a laptop - to access the internet, and long for a less powerful device that has a better form factor and doesn't produce much heat. A whole raft of iPad clones will hit the market very soon. Sure, these will hit iPad sales, but it doesn't represent a 'trough of disillusionment' with the tech: just the desire to buy the same thing more cheaply.

LOL @ 'computer-brain interface' and such Kurzweilian hints at coming 'singularity'-tech.
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Old 10-12-2010, 07:35 AM   #4
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Actually while there are a lot of people that prefer mobile, I think there is a far larger pool of people that would prefer to have much more horsepower than the Ipad has available.

Those who really don't mind sitting in a comfy office chair to read their mail, surf the net, browse discussion boards, or even play their games.

While I don't consider myself "average" I'd never even consider trading my desktop computer for an ipad. The enthusiast can still build a desktop for less then the cost of a tricked out Ipad, and it will blow the ipad out of the water as far as computing power is concerned. So while the ipad may be a hit with some people, I think it is more of a phase than anything.

Mobility is not everything.
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Old 10-12-2010, 08:09 AM   #5
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I'm not sure you can call it the trough of disillusionment when it is more likely to be just the lull between the early adopters and the more mainstream public that is waiting for the second and third generations to come along and fix bugs, add features, and, most importantly, lower costs.
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Old 10-12-2010, 09:18 AM   #6
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The "hype cycle" thing has been around for awhile, and discussed previously in respect to ebooks.

I concur it doesn't always work out the same way, e.g. sometimes you just get hype and no real payoff. But IMO the more reasonable way to handle this is just to generally ignore the hype.
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Old 10-12-2010, 10:29 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Kali Yuga View Post
But IMO the more reasonable way to handle this is just to generally ignore the hype.
But if any of could actually do that, none of us would have bought an eReader on this side of the hype curve
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Old 10-12-2010, 10:39 AM   #8
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Of note: they have separate plot points for e-ink and ebook readers.
And they paint eink as more mature than ebook readers as a category.
In other words, there is/will be more to ebooks and readers than what eink can/will deliver. No shock to the crowd round these parts but it is somewhat surprising to see the Gartner types have noticed. Those subtleties usually pass them by unnoticed.

I do wonder what their definition of mainstreaming is. Cause ebook adoption is going to be perforce constrained to the minority portion of the population that actually reads. So the absolute size of the market is aways going to be small compared to a lot of the other listed technologies/products. When their optimistic projections fall short, as they will, will they blame the product or admit their own failure?
(We know the answer to that, don't we? )
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Old 10-12-2010, 10:52 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by GhostHawk View Post
Actually while there are a lot of people that prefer mobile, I think there is a far larger pool of people that would prefer to have much more horsepower than the Ipad has available.

Those who really don't mind sitting in a comfy office chair to read their mail, surf the net, browse discussion boards, or even play their games.

While I don't consider myself "average" I'd never even consider trading my desktop computer for an ipad. The enthusiast can still build a desktop for less then the cost of a tricked out Ipad, and it will blow the ipad out of the water as far as computing power is concerned. So while the ipad may be a hit with some people, I think it is more of a phase than anything.

Mobility is not everything.
I don't see it as an either-or choice. I'm sure many iPad owners have laptops or PCs, too.
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Old 10-12-2010, 11:01 AM   #10
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While I don't consider myself "average" I'd never even consider trading my desktop computer for an ipad. The enthusiast can still build a desktop for less then the cost of a tricked out Ipad, and it will blow the ipad out of the water as far as computing power is concerned.
That is apples and oranges. They are not performing the same function.
Yes the desktop is much more versatile and powerful. Bit less portable though?
People might well trade a netbook for an iPad though.

Quote:
So while the ipad may be a hit with some people, I think it is more of a phase than anything.

Mobility is not everything.
I think if you were to look at the proportion of desktop to laptop sales now vs 5 years ago and 10 years ago, mobility seems to be pretty important.
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Old 10-13-2010, 04:54 PM   #11
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I think if you were to look at the proportion of desktop to laptop sales now vs 5 years ago and 10 years ago, mobility seems to be pretty important.
DArn tootin'! A friend of mine who is now living/working in Brazil chose the iPad over his netbook and you can forget about him taking his desktop.

and if my personal economics ever get better, I'll be getting my wife an ipad clone sometime so she can play her flashgames online without tying up our laptop.
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