eInk readers dying before they spread?

[gerraldo]

On the CyBook forum someone mentioned "Let the technology spread before it is terminated.". I've discussed something similar with a friend of mine just recently...

I can understand the fear of the technology/platform dying before it spreads. There are lots of things going on at the moment:
- new eInk devices appearing everywhere
- ePub format pushed for DRM standard in Europe
- Kindle looking for Europe
- nextGen readers being developed (WiFi, touchscreen, backlight, color)
- NetBooks, NetTablets, MIDs, etc. being announced/appearing
- and so on...

My POV:
- On the long-term eInk devices/eBook readers will die away and readers on other devices will take over (NetTablets, MIDs, smartphones etc.) - if there'll be ever those fuel cells available (with said 3-5 times battery life), this will even speed things up.
- If the DRM problem will not be solved soon (ONE de facto standard and/or no DRM at all - which I'd prefer) + reasonable pricing compared to pBooks (lower prices, budget eBooks, enhanced content, package deals, flat rates etc.), they'll have the same problems coming like the music biz.

You know the statistics? Most people read eBooks on other devices then eInk (PC and PDF being #1). If eInk devices don't get cheaper and more capable fast, they'll never be the most used device for eBook reading. Came to think of it, the cheapest eInk reader costs $ 200,-- and is of nothing more capable then reading eBooks (and this is even limited).

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE my CyBook and all, but look over at MP3 players (4GB models with OK features from well-known manufacturers) cost a mere $ 20-40,--. To be reasonable priced, eBook readers need to drop under $ 100,-- and with touch/color models appearing even more.

Named other devices (NetTablets, MIDs, PMPs etc) are speeding up with more features, better hardware, longer battery life, less weight, better form factors etc. (all compared to already existing devices, not eInk readers!). We already have an equally priced MID - the SmartQ 7 (look in the "other devices" forum) and despite it's downsides it delivers a LOT for the money.

And people (me included) love multi-purpose devices that can be enhanced later with new software (not FW updates) + devices with more open OS, so one can write software for it (which Pocketbook tries at the moment for their product!). Just look what happened to Smartphones and PDAs - who needs a PDA these days?! Same is true for PMPs (playing music, video and now enhanced with games, apps, WiFi, touchscreens and internet capability) - the NetTablet/MID/PMP (whatever it'll be named in the end) WILL be the future.

And if eReaders (eInk or not) don't get to grips with all that (including DRM and format wars), they'll be sooner or later history.

(just my 2 cents)

[desertgrandma]

Originally Posted by gerraldo

You know the statistics? Most people read eBooks on other devices then eInk (PC and PDF being #1). You got this info where?


And people (me included) love multi-purpose devices that can be enhanced later with new software (not FW updates) + devices with more open OS, so one can write software for it (which Pocketbook tries at the moment for their product!). Just look what happened to Smartphones and PDAs - who needs a PDA these days?! Same is true for PMPs (playing music, video and now enhanced with games, apps, WiFi, touchscreens and internet capability) - the NetTablet/MID/PMP (whatever it'll be named in the end) WILL be the future.

And if eReaders (eInk or not) don't get to grips with all that (including DRM and format wars), they'll be sooner or later history.

(just my 2 cents)

Interesting, geraldo, but please realize not everyone thinks as you do.

Many people (me included) prefer a device that just reads books.

We don't need to play mp3, call, or browse the net.

Don't underestimate the market.

[sassanik]

I agree that they need to get one or two standardized formats out there to make life easier for ebook readers.

I somewhat agree with the e-ink thing. I personally use a eb1150 which is a LCD screen and I love it. I also have a iphone, which I don't like to read books on. The screen is too small for my taste.

While I like the look of the e-ink device, unlike some I don't get tired eyes from looking at a LCD screen for hours. So e-ink is not the primary thing I am looking for in a new device.

So I think there will be a market for ebook specific devices for people who really enjoy reading and students. Where as I see a large portion of the population going for the multifunctional PDA/cell phone/ereader device.

Either way it will be intersting to see what will happen.

[Alisa]

I think students are way more likely to want a multifunction device so they can read their books and do work on the same system and only have to carry one around. As a business user I'd prefer that, too. I'd like something that had my email, work calendar, etc., but was still super readable with good battery life. The second best option for me would be a ultra light tablet that would automatically synch with my computer so I could have my annotations, bookmarks, etc. without having to do anything. That's already quite doable with today's tech.

[Andybaby]

I need anything with a Paper like display. I Need this for reading books.

and I find actual books a pain to hold read, their dusty smell that makes me sneeze. I don't care. I like ebook readers.

but Eink is the best screen currently for the job. but I'm not married to Eink. it looks like LCD screens will take over, and I don't mind. as long as there isn't a backlight while reading. which does things to my vision. I thought I needed glasses due to blurry vision caused by reading on a Net Book.

[griffonwing]

e-paper is still a new idea. Yes, it's been out for a few years, but it is still in its infancy. The newer LCD readers and such have had many years to hone the technology.

Sure, you can find a 6-inch LCD reader, color, with good battery life and a ton of other features. But it's not idea for reading.

The new epson controller might enable a greater breakthrough about reflowing text (I'm unfamiliar with how this works, so I might be talking out of me arse).

There is still much to be done with this technology. I wouldn't discount it too quickly.

[Nate the great]

ePaper isn't going to die out. There is a certain niche market that it satisfies.

And besides, there are more and more companies jumping into the device market every year.That's not a sign of a dying market.

[brecklundin]

proprietary devices and content/format wars will be the end of it or at the least stunt the growth of the whole market.

[Gideon]

I imagine it'll be like old LCD calculators and pocket dictionaries and such. They'll be some around, but most the market is going to go towards some sort of multifunction device.

We'll probably see something like the imaginary iTablet that has something like the those screens that are both similarly functioned to eInk and LCD.

What might happen, however, is that most things will get wrapped up in a device like the iPhone and we'll have free standing e-readers because they need to be bigger than that. But I imagine even they will probably have a multi-function screens and services.

[griffonwing]

Originally Posted by brecklundin

proprietary devices and content/format wars will be the end of it or at the least stunt the growth of the whole market.

There will always be cracks, converters, firmware alternatives, etc... If I, for some reason, loved the Kindle unit, I can rest assured that sooner or later, someone will come out with a compatible firmware, such as OpenInkPot or the like, that is tailored to it's manyfold buttons.

Proprietary devices with their formats are going to go by the wayside. It will not last very long. Many DRM formats are losing the DRM, and it will not be very long until the proprietary units will loosen their tie and let their hair down and allow more formats to be used.

At least, this will take place in my own little world.

[Kali Yuga]

I don't think electronic paper is Already Doomed.

IMO it's a mistake to assume that the only way to make money with e-books is with mass appeal. Since most people only buy a handful of books a year, the real "meat" to the market is with the small number of people who purchase a large volume of books. These are the people who will not find that a backlit LCD device with a 6-hour battery life, that constantly buzzes with incoming text messages, emails and phone calls, do not meet their needs.

I.e. if you offer a superior reading experience via electronic paper, the die-hard readers who buy most of the books anyway will continue to use electronic paper-based readers (or its descendents).

As to the advantages of multifunction devices.... Keep in mind that the iPod still has significant sales; e.g. in Q1 2009, 22.73 million iPods sold, compared to 4.36 million iPhones. Multifunction might get a lot of attention, but devices with a narrower focus often have multiple advantages.

[Boston]

These thoughts were probably posted elsewhere and nothing new...but the Boston Globe posted this blog which I found interesting and suggests how E Ink Corp's recent move may suggest they are questioning the technology's future.

http://www.boston.com/business/artic...is_taking_off/

Why sell a rising star? Cambridge-based E Ink Corp. said last Monday that it was being acquired by a big Taiwanese display maker. E Ink, a spinout from MIT's Media Lab, makes the screens for the Amazon Kindle and many other e-book devices. David Weinberger, a Brookline author and blogger, wondered why.

E Ink is on a roll in a market that is about to explode (in the good sense). After 10 years of work developing a low-power, highly legible display, it's got something that works. Thanks to Kindle, it's proven itself in the mass market and it's in lots of people's hands. And the market is about to take off now that we have digital delivery systems, a new generation of hardware, and a huge disruption in the traditional publishing market. So, why would E Ink sell itself? The price - $215 million - seems relatively low for such a hot product. [E Ink had raised more than $150 million from investors.] If they need the money to fund R&D or to build manufacturing facilities, surely there were other possibilities. Apparently the market crisis made an IPO implausible, although, to tell the truth, I - with my weak financial grasp - am not convinced. Perhaps [E Ink and its investors] have reason to think the market is not going to take off, but that seems wrong. . . . Or maybe they have doubts about E Ink technology. Maybe they worry the cost won't drop fast enough for a commoditized market. Maybe color isn't on its way fast enough. Maybe they're worried about the inability (or so I'm presuming) of their tech ever to handle video, since the winning e-reader will eventually be multimedia. Maybe they know about [other e-book devices] on the way - Apple iPad or whatever the presumed product will be called - that will make static, black-on-gray pages seem obsolete.

www.hyperorg.com/blogger

[Jill74]

i agree with all of you. nowadays more and more people are using the newest technology in book reading and writing.

[etherspin]

people are skeptical but will come around to the idea of reading books on a pbook alternative - i.e. its hard to convince people to replace the idea of paper with e-paper BUT its much more feasible than saying, dont buy paper books, instead, read them on your phone/netbook ..

A device you rarely have to worry about charging, with a similar form factor to a book and readability that is similar will trump the phones/netbooks - even if there was a netbook available today that could toggle into e-ink it wouldnt oust my cybook for comfort when reading...

the one scenario i can think of where an e-ink reader might be superceded is a super lightweight, touchscreen tablet computer capable of switching its primary processor off completely ... which has a pixel Qi style screen a few generations down the track..

im sure i'll still have an eInk reader if not two (small for books, large for newspaper and graphic novels)

[wallcraft]

The technology trends that argue against EInk long term are: a) color, b) refresh rate, c) battery capacity.

I don't know that color is essential, except for magazines, but if there is a color screen alternative that is almost as good it will win. Battery capacities per unit weight or volume are increasing, and the "all day" device is taking over from the "3 hour" device. So EInk's battery longevity advantage is under attack. But the killer is refresh rate. This isn't for movies, it is for every application ever written with a GUI interface. They all assume a fast screen refresh rate. The iRex DR1000S is the first device to try to address this systematically by patching the GTK+ library, but today you can't use an EInk screen in a general purpose device because of the refresh rate. Screens in general purpose devices get a huge advantage in the volume of units made. It is hard to see how EInk, or e-paper, competes in the long term if it is only for dedicated reading devices.

In a sense, e-paper has already won. Pixel Qi would probably not be talking up its "e-paper-like" mode quite so much without the success of the EInk Readers.