Nicolas Negroponte: The Physical Book is Dead in Five Years

[Maggie Leung]

Originally Posted by Donnageddon

I appreciate the clarification, and concern. But I am convinced the symptoms you describe are due to the tequila.

You might need to drink more if one side of your body is lagging, lol. Cheers. Mmm. Tequila sounds good. Or maybe a vodka tonic.

[Donnageddon]

Maggie, I splashed some cold water in my face and reread your post. Excellent points all.

And a V&T sounds very refreshing right about now.

[garygibsonsf]

I'm a big fan of the digital reading experience, but I'm not convinced. It's an argument that ignores the vast numbers of people who only read a couple of books a year, for whom any kind of electronic reading device isn't a worthwhile purchase, and who aren't going to read on their phone. They're going to buy cheap paperbacks - millions of them - and read those. A substantial - even huge - increase in electronic sales, sure, I can see that, since 20% of readers buy probably 80% of the books. But that still leaves a pretty vast number of those casual purchasers of bestsellers, many of whom I suspect would work hard at avoiding anything that even looks or smells like some kind of computer.

[Donnageddon]

garygibsonsf, I understand your point, but I just find it hard to comprehend a large number of people in an economically and technologically advanced society who:

1. Only buy a couple of books a year
2. Wouldn't purchase anything that resembles a computer.

I would assume anyone who fits the first criteria and the second is rare.

Those only fitting the first criteria are probably legion, but do not really change the ratio of ebook to pbook very much.

Those that fit only to the second criteria are again, I assume, rare. An ebook reader is not quite as daunting a leap as a computer.

Edit: especially with wireless connectivity to ebook stores.

[jgaiser]

Originally Posted by Maggie Leung

I'm one of the holdouts. I buy all my music on CDs. Better sound, and I have the originals to convert as I like. I don't plan to buy digital music unless I have no choice.

Interesting... So your willing to pay 50% more money for a CD rather than buying the MP3s from Amazon/iTunes? Very curious...

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by jgaiser

Interesting... So your willing to pay 50% more money for a CD rather than buying the MP3s from Amazon/iTunes? Very curious...

If one wants the cover art or the lyrics, bios, etc. some of the covers have, yes, one will be willing.

[jgaiser]

Originally Posted by Lady Fitzgerald

If one wants the cover art or the lyrics, bios, etc. some of the covers have, yes, one will be willing.

Still... You know that most of that is available without paying the premium.

[Kali Yuga]

Yaay, yet more techno-hyperbole, can't get enough of THAT stuff. Pixel Qi displays, anyone?

Negroponte is just conflating the habits of his affluent techno-savvy social circle with those of the rest of the planet.

Originally Posted by Donnageddon

garygibsonsf, I understand your point, but I just find it hard to comprehend a large number of people in an economically and technologically advanced society who:

1. Only buy a couple of books a year

According to a 2008 Zogby Poll, about 50% of Americans purchase 10 or fewer books per year.

Originally Posted by Donnageddon

2. Wouldn't purchase anything that resembles a computer.

According to the US Census Bureau, about 68% of Americans had Internet access at home. This is pretty much in line with the International Telecommunication Union figures.

Originally Posted by Donnageddon

I would assume anyone who fits the first criteria and the second is rare.

I wouldn't. We could easily be talking about 30% of US households. And a good ol' computer is a poor device for reading.

Originally Posted by Donnageddon

Those that fit only to the second criteria are again, I assume, rare. An ebook reader is not quite as daunting a leap as a computer.

It's far more daunting than a book, which does not require a power supply, a credit card, and $150 - $200 of disposable income.

It's unclear what effect all of this will have on book sales. Lots of issues, including orphaned works, digital rights, and international distribution, need to be worked out. Also, recorded music has always required an intermediary device; books do not. The devices also have a long way to go before really being ready for educational use.

I agree that eventually ebooks will outsell paper. But since digital music still hasn't outsold CDs -- despite the closure of pretty much all the major music chains -- I'd say it will take more time rather than less.

[vaughnmr]

Originally Posted by Donnageddon

They still make CDs? How quaint.

You used to be able to play a CD in DVD players, is that still possible? Haven't tried in years...

[Teddman]

Originally Posted by kjk

Digital music sales haven't surpassed physical music sales yet.

But iTunes is the single biggest music retailer in the world, including physical music retailers. It's possible soon that the Kindle store will be the single biggest source of book sales--paper or digital.

[vaughnmr]

Several years ago, I ripped all my CD's to my computer, and we haven't touched the darn things since. My music and photos (over 20,000 photos, since I got my Nikon D40 years ago) reside on my HTPC, and are instantly available to my Home theater or any other pc in the network (Win 7 and Media Center are my friends). I have instant access to all my digital media, from any computer, anywhere in the house. With wifi Kindles, I could do the same thing.

[banjobama]

Originally Posted by vaughnmr

You used to be able to play a CD in DVD players, is that still possible? Haven't tried in years...

I know a CD plays in a PlayStation 3!

And how is the sound better from buying a CD versus downloading the mp3 and burning it to a CD?

[Maggie Leung]

Originally Posted by Donnageddon

Maggie, I splashed some cold water in my face and reread your post. Excellent points all.

And a V&T sounds very refreshing right about now.

Thanks, Donnageddon. Cheers.

[kjk]

Originally Posted by banjobama

I know a CD plays in a PlayStation 3!

And how is the sound better from buying a CD versus downloading the mp3 and burning it to a CD?

Depends what quality the MP3 is. Apple's original digital files were 128kbps AAC-their new ones are 256kbps AAC. Amazon's are 256kbps MP3s. Both those formats are compressed. CD music files are WAVs, uncompressed. Copying MP3's or AACs at 256kbps to a CD won't match an original CD, in most cases.

[Maggie Leung]

Originally Posted by jgaiser

Interesting... So your willing to pay 50% more money for a CD rather than buying the MP3s from Amazon/iTunes? Very curious...

Your assumptions are off. Most of the music I like was done by people who are now dead, lol. Lotsa cheapish CDs, especially if you buy used, as I do. I don't care about the packaging. I have a 400-disc changer, so I usually load the CDs, recycle the paper and take the jewel cases back to the CD store when I go. I don't listen to much pop music. I sometimes buy a Norah Jones album, for instance, but I don't pay more than $9.99 even if I buy new. Lotsa stores discount CDs to lure in customers.