CNET: The Future of the Tablet is the PC

[fjtorres]

CNET sales reports are pointing at a resurgence of PC sales through 2-in-1 convertibles:

http://www.cnet.com/news/the-future-...let-is-the-pc/

Apple CEO Tim Cook once compared a tablet-laptop combo to mashing up a refrigerator with a toaster. The resulting Frankenstein device would do an equally lousy job of chilling your food and warming it up. That was three years ago.

Today, these tablet-laptop hybrids -- which blend the mobility and touchscreen friendliness of a tablet with the capabilities of a PC -- are on track to becoming the fastest-growing computing category. Shipments of so-called 2-in-1 devices like Microsoft's Surface Pro 3 and the Lenovo Yoga 3 Pro, for example, are expected to grow almost fivefold this year. That's thanks in part to attachable or foldable keyboards and more-powerful hardware, such as Intel's Core M microprocessors, that let slimmer, tabletlike devices hit speeds on par with midrange laptops.

And tablet sales? The market for large slabs of glass that are used mostly for playing games, reading email and watching videos has begun to slide. Sales of slate-style tablets are expected to fall 8 percent, according to a report from research firm Strategy Analytics. Sales in Apple's iPad business, meanwhile, fell 18 percent year over year in its most recent quarter, the sixth consecutive quarterly decline.

Consumers can't seem to get enough of devices that let them have, and do, it all.

Larger phablets, such as Apple's new iPhone 6 Plus and the devices in Samsung's Galaxy Note line, have become standard. And mobile software from companies like Microsoft, such as its Word document-editing application, have been tailored to work across devices as business users shift work between screens. Samsung has even managed to re-energize the smartphone stylus as a must-have productivity tool.

These phablets have eaten into the market for standalone 7- and 8-inch tablets, like the 7.9-inch iPad Mini. When your phone is only an inch or two shy, what's the point, Bouchard points out.

"In the past 9 to 12 months, the impact of phablets on 7-inch tablets was just phenomenal," he said. "The screen size is so similar."

Apple declined to comment for this story. In the company's latest earnings call, in July, Cook said he was "still bullish on the iPad" and that the device's "upgrade cycle will eventually occur."

More at the source.

[Shane R]

Most people I know rarely touch their tablet if they have a 'phablet.'

[fjtorres]

ZDNet had a slightly similar piece back in april, positing that the iPad, like the iPod before it, had peaked and is now destined for a slow decline:

http://www.zdnet.com/article/peak-ip...come-and-gone/

I'm not ready to start carving out a tombstone for the iPad just yet because 12.6 million iPads a quarter represents a volume of product that a lot of hardware makers can only dream of, but sales do seem to be on a downward trajectory. The iPad may have burned bright, but it may not have the longevity that the iPhone and Mac seem to have

Running an online search for "peak ipad" popped up this piece by Jean Louis Gassee from last year:

http://www.mondaynote.com/2014/04/20...ad-is-a-tease/

I realize there are iPad users who happily perform “productivity tasks” on their iPads. Most of them use a stand and keyboard sold in a number of guises. The number of different offerings is a testament to a real need. (We’ll note that Apple doesn’t seem eager to address this issue directly. They don’t offer an “iPad-sized” keyboard — the Bluetooth keyboard I use is fine for my iMac, but feels gargantuan when I pair it with my iPad. And Apple’s iPad Dock hasn’t been updated to work with the “Lightning” connector on the newer iPads.)

The iPad’s limitations extend beyond classic office productivity tasks. I just tried to build an itinerary for a long postponed road trip, driving all the way from Key West Florida to Palo Alto. On a Mac, you can easily “print to PDF” to produce a map for each leg of the trip. Then you use the wonderful Preview app (I salute its author and dedicated maintainer) to emend unneeded pages, drag and drop, combine and rearrange the PDF files into a single document. Don’t try this on an iPad: How would you “print-to-PDF” a map page, let alone combine such pages?

Despite the inspiring ads, Apple’s hopes for the iPad overshot what the product can actually deliver. Although there’s a large numbers of iPad-only users, there’s also a substantial population of dual-use customers for whom both tablets and conventional PCs are now part of daily life.

I see the lull in iPad sales as a coming down to reality after unrealistic expectations, a realization that iPads aren’t as ready to replace PCs as many initially hoped.

Apple is still rumored to have an iPad Pro on the way.
Real. Soon. Now.

[DiapDealer]

Still despise the word "phablet" as much as ever. Thankfully, I've yet to hear anyone actually say it out loud in my presence.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

Still despise the word "phablet" as much as ever. Thankfully, I've yet to hear anyone actually say it out loud in my presence.

Fortunate for them?

[pwalker8]

The flaw of looking at sells growth is that you see tremendous growth going from selling 100 units to 500 units, but don't see much growth going from 1,000,000 units going to 1,000,400 units. And of course, we are talking about a couple of analyst projections, rather than real numbers. The mini tablet market is a bit of a niche market, and I can certainly see big phones eat into that market. I would be very surprised if the combo tablet-laptop ever becomes a big percentage, it's too heavy to use as a tablet and not nearly as powerful as a regular laptop. It's mostly a niche device.

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

The flaw of looking at sells growth is that you see tremendous growth going from selling 100 units to 500 units, but don't see much growth going from 1,000,000 units going to 1,000,400 units. And of course, we are talking about a couple of analyst projections, rather than real numbers. The mini tablet market is a bit of a niche market, and I can certainly see big phones eat into that market. I would be very surprised if the combo tablet-laptop ever becomes a big percentage, it's too heavy to use as a tablet and not nearly as powerful as a regular laptop. It's mostly a niche device.

Then why does nearly every college student have one?
Are you really saying that 1 million is a niche?
Is it a fact they are too heavy or is that an opinion?
Stats please?
For what it is worth, my mother who is in college loves her laptop/tablet.
She is a senior senior in college. Last year she was a senior junior.

[fjtorres]

The sales reports on tablets address a drop in actual sales, not in sales rate.
Old tablets simply aren't being replaced as they break and the new models aren't compelling many existing users to upgrade. The installed base is actually declining.

In parallel to this, convertibles have become lighter, thinner, with longer battery lives *and* lower prices. Not many tablets can match the utility of something like this:

http://www.amazon.com/ASUS-Transform...ertible+tablet

Much less at $299 including the Keyboard.

Which leads to stories like this from an Apple Beat writer:

http://ct.zdnet.com/clicks?t=1775508...rand=ZDNET&s=5

[murg]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

The flaw of looking at sells growth is that you see tremendous growth going from selling 100 units to 500 units, but don't see much growth going from 1,000,000 units going to 1,000,400 units. And of course, we are talking about a couple of analyst projections, rather than real numbers. The mini tablet market is a bit of a niche market, and I can certainly see big phones eat into that market. I would be very surprised if the combo tablet-laptop ever becomes a big percentage, it's too heavy to use as a tablet and not nearly as powerful as a regular laptop. It's mostly a niche device.

If it's a niche device, it's a very large niche.

I can see a significant portion of company bought laptaps moving to these convertibles, for the very fact that they are convertible. You can move from using them flat in meetings (everyone hiding behind their laptop screens is annoying), you can use them as a laptop when more convenient. And since a lot of laptops are attached to external screens in the office, the convertibleness is a non-factor in that use.

This, coupled with the relatively low cost, and decent specs, will start to drive businesses to these convertibles.

And since most business really don't care what their people are running (spec wise, not device wise), any under-specage isn't really a problem. For example, a Surface 3 is more powerful than the 4-5 year old laptops one of my client's people are issued.

In fact, if I was looking for a laptop replacement (I'm not, my 6 year old Dell is barely sufficient), I would be getting a Surface 3 (or equivalent). Why would I want to be locked into a laptop form factor?

And the trend of the rate of sales is important, it's how you plan for the future.

[DustyDisks]

It will always boil down to utility, and how useful the device can be in day to day usage. PC's have the advantage of large storage (most) large screens and keyboards. Plus the ability to do multitasking is a huge part of the equation.

My tablet has evolved in use to the point I almost use it for everything that does not involve a large amount of typing, or needing a large screen.

The biggest negative with tablets are screen size/multiple choices of input as to what can be attached to them. Keyboards and large storage ability and mostly they can not do multitasking in real time. Where PC's can do all, plus the processing horsepower tablets do not at the time.

I can see where there is/will be a market for something that is all in one in function, but the prices would need to come down for the average/mass markets that would buy them.

I think there is a day this will happen, but the curve to such a device is still steep but flattening out.

Still early in the evolution stages.

[Jessica Lares]

After realizing that a tablet wasn't as great as advertised, why would you get a convertible?

[DustyDisks]

Originally Posted by Jessica Lares

After realizing that a tablet wasn't as great as advertised, why would you get a convertible?

At this stage I would not even consider one at this time. In my case my tablet does most everything needed and without the bother of the bulk of toting a laptop around. But laptops with the bigger screens and keyboards defiantly rule for traditional uses, but are a pain to tote everywhere due to bulk and weight. A convertible for some would be nice for they that like large screens but also those large screens can be a pain compared to a tablet in portability/mobility.

For my taste a 7 inch screen is just right for portability without the bulk of anything larger. But that screen size limits the keyboard to a separate keyboard or using the touch screen.And to me the larger screens are more prone to damage and are harder to tote around, so why not just tote a laptop?

So at least for me both have their places, but not combined at least for this old fart in training!

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Jessica Lares

After realizing that a tablet wasn't as great as advertised, why would you get a convertible?

Because convertibles are full-power PCs, of course.

At present there are two main designs: one has a 360 degree hinge so you can hide the keyboard behind the screen, the other approach has a detachable keyboard, so you can use it in tablet mode when it makes sense and use it as a laptop when that is more practical.

Plus it helps that convertibles all have a full complements of USB ports, video ports, SD card slots, and decades of PC software to draw upon for sideloading.

And, finally, because even the low-end models have a full power OS and CPU, not glorified cellphone tech. Which is where the Phablet comes in: Tablets are becoming tweener devices; too big to take everywhere like a phone and not functional enough to match the usually cheaper convertibles. At the smaller size, the phablet has the better connectivity and at the larger size the convertible has the better productivity.

[pwalker8]

We will see. Microsoft has been pushing these convertibles for years starting right about the time they came out with Windows 8. So far, not much traction. Hybrids generally promise the best of both worlds and deliver the worse of both worlds. Maybe this time will be different. I would be surprised though.

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

We will see. Microsoft has been pushing these convertibles for years starting right about the time they came out with Windows 8. So far, not much traction. Hybrids generally promise the best of both worlds and deliver the worse of both worlds. Maybe this time will be different. I would be surprised though.

Proof please.