The subscription model for ebooks hasn’t emerged yet, but it will

[Algiedi]

There's a French indie publisher that's been doing that for a while now (publie.net).

For 95€ a year (65 for streaming-only subscription), you get full access to all formats (downloads or online reading - audio included if available), all the books in the catalog, with no DRMs.

I didn't know it was so rare a thing.

[anamardoll]

Originally Posted by stonetools

Audible has a subscription model that works NOW.
Analog/Isaac Asimov's has an electronic subscription model that works NOW.
Baen has has a subscription model that works NOW
There are a bunch of magazines that offer electronic subscriptions through Itunes and elsewhere.
Just looking at those existing models and ignoring the Netflix movies-video model, its pretty clear that ebook subscription models have a future. The only question is which model will be most attractive to the public.

Yes. There are subscription models at the moment. That wasn't what I was responding to. You said:

I think it likely that you'll see a BUNCH of different subscription models thrown at you over the next few years, from an all-you-can read model featuring only books on the deep back list to a premium model that would include bestsellers.

I like Baen, I do. Not going to say word one against them. But YOU are talking about a subscription model that offers the current bestsellers. And I (and others) are pointing out that It's More Complicated Than That.

You seem to take it as guaranteed that every new book from here on out is (a) going to have an eBook version, (b) going to be available to be offered via a subscription service if only someone will start one, and (c) can be offered via subscription service at a lower/competitive price that makes the service worthwhile.

I don't think you can bet on ANY of those things. People are providing examples to you of authors/publishers who won't publish in electronic format, of publishers who won't even cooperate with libraries let alone subscription services, and of price fixing that will effectively shut down competitive pricing via a service.

And you...trot out Baen and Isaac Asimov. And use that to keep insisting that the next big bestseller is automatically gonna be available at some discount price via a subscription service. Just as soon as someone starts one. And we're saying that if that bestseller is written by, say, Rowling.... it's not going to be available, period.

Originally Posted by stonetools

Just looking at those existing models and ignoring the Netflix movies-video model, its pretty clear that ebook subscription models have a future. The only question is which model will be most attractive to the public.

The issue here is not JUST the public. You keep ignoring the supplier side of the equation. A subscription service will not be viable until price fixing stops. If Amazon can't offer a book at a loss to keep their $9.99 Kindle price point, then EBOOKSCRIPTION.COM or whatever isn't going to be able to offer 24 ebook credits (that includes the latest bestsellers) at $120 bulk price.

[stonetools]

You seem to take it as guaranteed that every new book from here on out is (a) going to have an eBook version, (b) going to be available to be offered via a subscription service if only someone will start one, and (c) can be offered via subscription service at a lower/competitive price that makes the service worthwhile.

I don't think you can bet on ANY of those things. People are providing examples to you of authors/publishers who won't publish in electronic format, of publishers who won't even cooperate with libraries let alone subscription services, and of price fixing that will effectively shut down competitive pricing via a service.

I thought we were talking about the possibility of ebook subscriptions, not whether we could achieve Instant Ebook Nirvana.
In any industry adoption of the new follows a particular pattern:
*There are the early adopters , who in effect beta test the new.
*There are the bandwagon jumpers who come in after the early adopters and take the innovation mainstream
* There are the slowpokes who get in after most people are already engaged
*Finally, there are the bitter enders whgo never get reconciled to the new , even after it isn't new anymore.

Right now, ebooks are becoming mainstream .As it becomes mainstream,ebooks will increasingly adopt mainstream methods of sales-one of which will be various forms of subscription. Its possible that not every publisher and author will go along with subscription models. Its enough if most eventually will.
As I have said above, it's likely that subscription models will be adopted in a stepwise fashion , with best selling authors joining up last. That is entirely predictable , since they have the most to lose. I would note that with Audible you can get NYT bestsellers now.

AUDIBLE SELECTIONS

[anamardoll]

Originally Posted by stonetools

I thought we were talking about the possibility of ebook subscriptions, not whether we could achieve Instant Ebook Nirvana.

Your snark is noted.

Fundamentally, ebook subscriptions already exist, as you've pointed out. They are a niche market because the books they carry cater to a niche market.

In order for an ebook subscription to go "mainstream", they have to carry mainstream bestsellers, again as you've pointed out. Elfwreck and I are saying that that step - getting the mainstream bestsellers - is a much bigger roadblock than you seem to think it is. That's not nirvana, that's the mainstream acceptance that you're talking about.

Anyway, fun thread. Thanks.

[bobavey]

I like the idea of paying a set price and getting to purchase the books at a discount.