Apple's War on Android

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by frahse

The only thing I can remember that was a real failure was "Zune" and then close to that, their first tablet. They are bringing back the tablet again, and maybe later a new "Zune." They never give up.

Microsoft BOB was a real (and embarrasing) failure. Big Time.
But TabletPC is *not* a failure.
It's a corporate niche product, not a consumer product, but they still sell by the millions and bring in profits for MS and their partners. Pretty much like WindowsCE devices; they're all over but hardly anybody notices them because they're mostly industrial products.

Even Zune made plenty of money for them.
It still does--through the subscription service which lives on via PCs, cellphones, and XBOX. What it did *not* do was grow to a significant PMP market share; at its peak it outsold established brands like Creative and iRiver (the sound quality was excellent and the players were extremely reliable and durable) but it never got beyond 10 percent. It was at best a distant second to Apple in the US.

Microsoft failure = didn't set the world on fire.

BOB, however, didn't set the *backyard* on fire.
It is right there with the Sony eVilla and Apple III for corporate embarrassment.

[fjtorres]

Android has bigger problems than Steve Jobs' ego:

Oracle's suit is going to court in two weeks:
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/google...44?tag=nl.e539

And their whole approach needs revamping:
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/perlow/im-...42?tag=nl.e539

All is not rosy in the Android world. No more than in Apple's world or Microsoft's. These are tough times for everybody. And going to get tougher.

[Talldog]

Originally Posted by frahse

There will be a Win8 tablet just like there is currently Win7 Tablets. I think they are coming too late and the hardware is going to make them cost too much. The sales should be mediocre except to specialized people and Apple and Android will just laugh.

I don't know, I've been reading a lot of good things about Win8 for tablets. Much as I love my iPad, I'll be looking closely at Win8, because MS won't lock you into only working their way. As just one example, I finally had to break down and buy a cheap Airprint printer because my iPad won't print to anything else without a lot of jerry-rigging and compromises. I have no doubt that a Win8 tablet will print seamlessly to any modern printer that shows up on your network. And don't get me started on files and folders.

[JDK1962]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Even Zune made plenty of money for them.
It still does--through the subscription service which lives on via PCs, cellphones, and XBOX. What it did *not* do was grow to a significant PMP market share; at its peak it outsold established brands like Creative and iRiver (the sound quality was excellent and the players were extremely reliable and durable) but it never got beyond 10 percent. It was at best a distant second to Apple in the US.

This. I've had my first generation Zune since ~2008, and use it--literally--for hours every day. I'd have a very difficult time choosing between my Zune and my Kindle 3.

Definitely a market failure...but not a bad product by any stretch.

But I admit to having an anti-Apple bias, after being the support guy on various iPod issues for my family. I bought a Samsung Galaxy pad rather than step into the Apple world for an iPad.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Android has bigger problems than Steve Jobs' ego:

Oracle's suit is going to court in two weeks:
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/google...44?tag=nl.e539

Oracle has had to reduce their claims, to the point that now they are asking for "only" $100 million (a far cry from the $6 billion they started with). They may not even get $100 million (source).

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by VaporPunk

Apple is the BMW/Ferrari of the mobile market. High quality Nissan's are coming and its scared to death. There is little doubt that that their market share is going to decline every year.

The problem with this analysis is that comparable tablet makers haven't (and don't seem to be able to) match apple on price. The most successful android tablets right now are the 7" tablets. These are less than half the size of an iPad.

Right now, I just don't see any nissans on the highway, to use your analogy...I don't really see how the iPad can be compared to a $200,000 car.

[frahse]

Originally Posted by Talldog

I don't know, I've been reading a lot of good things about Win8 for tablets. Much as I love my iPad, I'll be looking closely at Win8, because MS won't lock you into only working their way. As just one example, I finally had to break down and buy a cheap Airprint printer because my iPad won't print to anything else without a lot of jerry-rigging and compromises. I have no doubt that a Win8 tablet will print seamlessly to any modern printer that shows up on your network. And don't get me started on files and folders.

Everything you say is right, but how much will the extra intel hardware to run Windows cost? Now much will Microsoft charge for their software?

The Win7 tablets are expensive.

(update I just checked - Archos 9 PC (Win7) 32GB Tablet is now $499 MSRP. I thought it was twice that. Must be being driven down.)

[Talldog]

Babylon 5, eh? Love that show. Got the whole set, series and movies.

[kartu]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

How exactly is Apple's technology losing?

Does 18% of the smartphone market share (worldwide, in US it's 25%) sound bad enough?

It's heading the same way on tablet front, with Apple losing market share a bit faster than anticipated.

Originally Posted by wizwor

Microsoft always wins.

Zune, cough? Bing, cough? Smartphones, cough? Oh, it has captured whopping couple of % of the market and turned excellent hardware manufacturer, Nokia, into a zombie? That's quite an achievement...

Oh, you've mentioned Internet Explorer. Note that it only won vs Netscape (which cost money) And note that it payed for this "victory" about 1 billion, to avoid going to court. Because the only way, Microsoft is successfull "competing" is when abusing one of its monopolistic powers. But there we go with IE:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_s...f_web_browsers

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

The problem with this analysis is that comparable tablet makers haven't (and don't seem to be able to) match apple on price.

Not sure about comparable, but superior tablets, like Samsung Galaxy 10.1 (it's only after ipad3 is out, that people discover, that ipad2 color gamut sucked) or Asus Prime are normally 50$-ish cheaper than Apple's.

[VaporPunk]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

The problem with this analysis is that comparable tablet makers haven't (and don't seem to be able to) match apple on price. The most successful android tablets right now are the 7" tablets. These are less than half the size of an iPad.

Ipad 3 - http://www.komplett.nl/komplett/prod...b/details.aspx

Asus TP - http://www.komplett.nl/komplett/prod...k/details.aspx

20 Euro difference, the TP comes with a detachable keyboard dock/battery. Pad 3 has better screen + graphic performance...TP has more ports/versatility, faster CPU, and better battery life with a keyboard. Either one is a sexy beast, imo.

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

Right now, I just don't see any nissans on the highway, to use your analogy...I don't really see how the iPad can be compared to a $200,000 car.

Fair enough. I did say "are coming" though... The smaller 7" tablets are in a different category compared to the ipad, agreed. The larger, "comparable" Android tablets will be arriving soon and will more than likely be quite a bit cheaper.

The 7" tabs are part of the tablet market, however, and will sell well, despite certain predictions to the contrary, because they are über portable and affordable, making them more attractive to the "young" demographic worldwide. The mini ipad is Apple's play for this market, and it will be a huge hit if it can compete on price. Still, even with a succesful mini, Apple's market share will almost certainly decline over the next few years, even without taking W8 into account.

Its just a guess, but a reasonably educated one, imo.

[HansTWN]

Well Kartu, I wouldn't count out Microsoft and Nokia quite yet. They are in it for the long haul, have a lot of money to throw around. Those new Nokia phones look really beautiful and the hardware specs have almost caught up to the best Android phones. Windows Phone 7 is generally as quick as Android even on slower hardware. Microsoft has been successful with the Xbox, too. And Kinnect is probably the most innovative product to come out from anyone in a long time -- with many, many possible future uses.

[fjtorres]

First movers *always* lose market share. Nobody ever keeps 100% of the market they pioneer; not IBM, not Microsoft, not Palm, not Google, not Amazon, and certainly not Apple. It is naive or deluded to expect/pretend otherwise.

Successful tech markets, as they mature, always grow beyond the capacity of any single company to satisfy so it is irrelevant to point to market share declines as proof that followers are "beating" or "destroying" or even "catching up" to the first mover.

Market share is not the best figure of merit to judge market impact because the blind pursuit of market share often results in sub-optimal profitability; not all users are worth pursuing. (C.F., PALM; their attempt to maintain market share at all costs in the PDA business led them to a low-tech, low-ball strategy that saw them pursue the least profitable customers--pocket organizer users--at the expense of the more affluent corporate customers willing to pay higher prices for increased functionality like color and multimedia, thereby letting the PocketPC camp cherrypick the market and outstrip Palm on revenue and *profits* despite a lower market share.)

Market share-based strategies make sense as part of a growth strategy where the bulk of the profits come from follow-up sales of products or services. (Microsoft, Amazon, Boeing, Nintendo are all companies where the high-visibility up-front product enable the *real* corporate cash-cows.)

Apple does not pursue a market share-driven strategy but rather a profit margin-based. The bulk of their profits come from the actual hardware. The software and content revenues are important but secondary to the per-unit income. As a result, they design and price their products to balance out market share and margin and optimize their gross profit. Note that Apple's 18-25% share of the cellphone market results in far more profits than any single competitor. And that their products remain the benchmark for comparison. Not everybody buys Apple but most everybody at least looks at their products before buying. They still remain market leaders and everybody else remains followers.
For now.

Being leaders means they are everybody's target and sooner or later somebody will score a real hit. But not yet. Maybe not even soon.

Things change, so stay tuned.

[kartu]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

First movers *always* lose market share. Nobody ever keeps 100% of the market they pioneer; not IBM, not Microsoft, not Palm, not Google, not Amazon, and certainly not Apple. It is naive or deluded to expect/pretend otherwise.

Cisco routers? Microsoft Office?

Originally Posted by fjtorres

They still remain market leaders and everybody else remains followers.

What does that mean? How is Android OS that does what iOS does and much more on top of it for years "a follower"? How is Samsung "a follower"? (25%-ish smartphone market share worldwide) What is Apple's version of Galaxy Note? 7" tablet? Samsung's TVs? Screens?

High margin means somebody is ripped of. Some (Confucius among them) believe(d) this is bad for society.

[ScotiaBurrell]

Originally Posted by kartu

Does 18% of the smartphone market share (worldwide, in US it's 25%) sound bad enough?

Eh. Marketshare overated. It is a sustainable profitble business. Just like selling mac computers. Marketshare overated/not tell whole story.

Why apple not die before ipod became a hit if marketshare most important number?

Eh. lies.

[monkeyluis]

Marketshare is overrated. A few devices vs hundreds. Hmmmm. Most of those devices out of the hundreds are pretty crappy as well.