iPad Apple iPad Hoopla Fails to Convince Buyers

[dragonbone]

Originally Posted by kjk

Yes, I'm guessing the iPad demoes extremely well in real life...I'm now wondering how they are going to handle launch day. For the iPhone, you couldn't even get in the stores unless you were buying..and you couldn't really spend hands on time with it...people just waited in line and bought and bought...I wonder if the iPad will generate anything close to that craziness (and fun).

Funny, I was just talking about this to someone yesterday and we were wondering if there will be any overnight lines with people in their PJ's and sleeping bags here in Japan!

[kjk]

Originally Posted by dragonbone

Funny, I was just talking about this to someone yesterday and we were wondering if there will be any overnight lines with people in their PJ's and sleeping bags here in Japan!

I bet Danny Choo will show up in his dancing Stormtrooper outfit to entertain the people in line

[dragonbone]

Originally Posted by kjk

I bet Danny Choo will show up in his dancing Stormtrooper outfit to entertain the people in line

EXCELLENT link, thanks so much! I can't wait to show my friends and family tonight. OK, so that is just for ONE store (phone shop) in Tokyo and just for ONE day, one moment. There are thousands all over Japan (and probably at least 100 in Tokyo alone, although don't quote me on that).

[kilron]

Originally Posted by Sonist

An intuitive, multifunction device with the right form factor, which excels at web-browsing, video and music playing, gaming and reading, would sell well, IMO.

The major problem is, that without Flash, the iPad will be crippled for web-browsing, as well for watching much of the currently available video on the web. The availability of Hulu, and the Silverlight-based Netflix streaming service, would have been a reason for many to get an iPad.

But, alas, it's not likely to happen. And, I am afraid, the walled-off Apple TV system already proved to be a total failure.

the thing is, like steve jobs said, hulu and netflix aren't flash content providers... they're video providers. don't you think they WANT their content on the iPhone and iPad and iPod touches? of course they do. thus i'd be very surprised if we don't see apps from them before 2010 comes to a close. its probably only a matter of time.

Originally Posted by nekokami

There are a couple of open-source alternative Flash player projects out there if Apple wants to provide this functionality without going through Adobe. Apple is probably banking on HTML5, as many have speculated. It will be interesting to see if they can drive the market.

I note that Apple does offer a YouTube-specific app for iP. YouTube uses Flash. Perhaps they could generalize this.

youtube uses flash and h.264. you can now watch all videos in either format on youtube. vimeo has this option as well now. i think they see the writing on the wall too.

as for the open-source flash alternatives... that's a tricky route to go. have any major browsers or companies used these? adobe definitely wouldn't support it and my guess is if apple DID go that route, adobe would do things to force incompatibility. the only true way is for adobe themselves to open up the source code for flash player and make it an open standard.

Originally Posted by Bremen Cole

I bet you end up being right. Of course this device is not going to have iPod like sales, and iPhone type sales would also seem to be a stretch.... but the $500 price point I wager would put 3-5 million units.

3-5 million was what i was thinking too. i think apple definitely wants to hit a mark around there and if it starts off too slow, speculation is they could knock off $100 or so off the price. that would definitely make them fly off the shelves.

Originally Posted by scottjl

Considering it isn't even available for preorder how can one say buyers are or aren't convinced? No one has it in their hands. One important thing this survey ignores is the fact that Apple has over 250 stores out there, they are counting on people walking in, checking the iPad out, and walking out with one, regardless of what they answer on a poll today.

great point! i'm guessing most folks haven't watched the apple keynote and still now that's probably the only resource to get a really good idea for what it can do since no one in the media has had a really good hands-on experience for more than an hour.

Originally Posted by Sonist

Yeah, but none will be able to get into the iPad, just like Skyfire hasn't made it to the iPhone.

Contrary to popular misconceptions, HTML5 is not a comprehensive replacement for Flash. Flash is not just video, and it does a lot of things HTML5 cannot. Even if HTML5 is universally adopted, it is most likely that it will coexist with Flash for the foreseeable future.

I can reluctantly put up with the lack of Flash on the iPhone, but wouldn't put up with a crippled browser on a device will I would use extensively to browse the web.

the thing is, i think a lot of developers are seeing the writing on the wall and moving away from flash. the fact is, we're all better off without it. apple knows this. lots of pundits know it too. apple is simply forcing the issue.

besides, probably 75%-90% of the flash i see on the internet every day is advertising i'm not remotely interested in anyway. not a good selling point for consumers if you ask me.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by kilron

... the thing is, like steve jobs said, hulu and netflix aren't flash content providers... they're video providers. don't you think they WANT their content on the iPhone and iPad and iPod touches? of course they do. thus i'd be very surprised if we don't see apps from them before 2010 comes to a close. its probably only a matter of time.

youtube uses flash and h.264. you can now watch all videos in either format on youtube....

You may be grossly overestimating the attention major sites pay to the iPhone.

The vast, vast majority of users do NOT use iPhones, or Safari. Nobody in corporate cares, really, and I am afraid they are right.

Adobe is rolling out Mobile Flash 10 for EVERY major mobile platform, but the iPhone. The new version includes hardware acceleration and H.264, and runs much, much better on mobile hardware.

I think the lack of Flash may be what gives Android OS the competitive advantage to kill the iPhone. I say this with sadness, because so far I like the iPhone OS much better than Android.

Oh, and no, there are a ton of Yahoo videos available in Flash only.

Originally Posted by kilron

... i think a lot of developers are seeing the writing on the wall and moving away from flash. the fact is, we're all better off without it. apple knows this. lots of pundits know it too. apple is simply forcing the issue.

besides, probably 75%-90% of the flash i see on the internet every day is advertising i'm not remotely interested in anyway. not a good selling point for consumers if you ask me.

Yeah, well, the reality is, there is no writing on the wall.

Flash use is increasing. Flash has almost 100% penetration. Flash is used for a lot more stuff, than just videos and ads. Stuff which cannot be easily accomplished with HTML5, even if it is adopted by everyone today.

Turn off your browser's plugins, and try visiting something like the Disney site. It sucks, without Flash. And Disney's major shareholder is Jobs....

[kilron]

Originally Posted by Sonist

You may be grossly overestimating the attention major sites pay to the iPhone.

really? i don't think so. the iPhone and iPod touch have been dominating mobile web browsing ever since they debuted. other mobile platforms are only just now, within the last 6 months, catching up. how can major sites NOT pay attention to the iPhone

The vast, vast majority of users do NOT use iPhones, or Safari. Nobody in corporate cares, really, and I am afraid they are right.

hulu and netflix don't care if their users can view their content? really??

Adobe is rolling out Mobile Flash 10 for EVERY major mobile platform, but the iPhone. The new version includes hardware acceleration and H.264, and runs much, much better on mobile hardware.

much much better than what? mobile flash 9? and who runs that. nobody? ok....

the funny thing is, i've seen adobe's little video presentation showcasing flash on android. if that's what we have to look forward to with flash on smartphones, i honestly think most people would pass. its just not worth the headache.

I think the lack of Flash may be what gives Android OS the competitive advantage to kill the iPhone. I say this with sadness, because so far I like the iPhone OS much better than Android.

now you're assuming that flash support is a key feature that typical consumers are looking for. if i had to guess, i'd say maybe 10% at best consider flash support in their decision at all, let alone as a key differentiating factor.

Oh, and no, there are a ton of Yahoo videos available in Flash only.

yahoo has videos? like on their news sites? i'll have to check that out. i've disliked yahoo ever since their email went down the tubes. it was a great way of DRIVING people to gmail.

Yeah, well, the reality is, there is no writing on the wall.

Flash use is increasing. Flash has almost 100% penetration. Flash is used for a lot more stuff, than just videos and ads. Stuff which cannot be easily accomplished with HTML5, even if it is adopted by everyone today.

Turn off your browser's plugins, and try visiting something like the Disney site. It sucks, without Flash. And Disney's major shareholder is Jobs....

yep, steve jobs pretty much owns disney all by himself. and yes, i actually have turned off flash. i'm using a fantastic little plugin called Click2Flash which disables all flash from loading unless i want it to. best thing that ever happened to my browsing experience.

the most interesting thing that has come out of it is that i'm now realizing what all is and isn't flash programming. i'm finding out that a bunch of things that i thought were built with flash actually aren't. and also some things that i thought weren't flash that actually are (which makes me wonder why they were...).

and flash penetration is surely 100% if you use the right variables. if you're counting all web browsers out there on all platforms in use to surf, then its certainly not 100% and its definitely falling.

so say you're a content provider or a company. you want your website to be seen by as many people as possible. you see all of these smartphones and iPod touches and now this new iPad coming out, NONE of which currently can see flash. what are you going to do? afterall, you've spent all this money on SEO to get to the top of google, what good is it when they click on your site and they can't see anything? seriously, what do you do? do you complain about it and stomp your feet on the ground hoping that hardware and software manufacturers get their act together or do you adapt?

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by kilron

...
hulu and netflix don't care if their users can view their content? really??

Sure they do. Just not so much about the relatively minuscule number of iPhone users. If they really cared, they would both have had adapted by now, don't you think? Instead, Netflix went to MS's Silverlight platform, also unavailable on the iPhone and on the iPad.

Originally Posted by kilron

...and yes, i actually have turned off flash. i'm using a fantastic little plugin called Click2Flash which disables all flash from loading unless i want it to. best thing that ever happened to my browsing experience....

'Nuff said. You are uniquely hardcore, and you are in such tiny minority, that it's not even a blip on the radar. The vast majority of people like to be able to see their web unmutilated....

[SCION]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

They should have had stylus support built in and really sold the reading, markup and note taking function. Really harped on how good magazines and newspapers look, comic books. Show students who they can get e-text books, and highlight them easily and carry that around instead of a bunch of heavy books.

[nekokami]

Originally Posted by kilron

as for the open-source flash alternatives... that's a tricky route to go. have any major browsers or companies used these? adobe definitely wouldn't support it and my guess is if apple DID go that route, adobe would do things to force incompatibility. the only true way is for adobe themselves to open up the source code for flash player and make it an open standard.

The Flash format is already open. Creation and playback tools have been around for a while now. In most markets, they don't compete because the Flash player from Adobe is already free, but I could see someone developing a plugin for Safari on iP* using this code.

I personally don't care much about Flash. A lot of it is ads, which I block. (I don't mind text ads, but I don't need flashing noisy stuff while I'm trying to look something up online.) I also don't spend much time at YouTube or similar sites. I now have two bits of video on my iPod Touch, for the first time. (Both are Muppet music videos. ) But I could have done without those. I'm more interested in reading and markup, and listening to podcasts of my favorite NPR shows if I'm driving at a time when they're not on.

[kilron]

Originally Posted by Sonist

Sure they do. Just not so much about the relatively minuscule number of iPhone users. If they really cared, they would both have had adapted by now, don't you think? Instead, Netflix went to MS's Silverlight platform, also unavailable on the iPhone and on the iPad.

ok, so you're counting the millions of iPhones and iPod touches that are sold every quarter as miniscule? really??? i mean really?

i'm sorry, but that's a huge untapped market that they really need to fill. hulu's videos are already mostly h264, only streamed through flash player. shouldn't be too hard for them to adapt them.

'Nuff said. You are uniquely hardcore, and you are in such tiny minority, that it's not even a blip on the radar. The vast majority of people like to be able to see their web unmutilated....

ha! i had no idea i was hardcore!! sweet! actually more and more people are looking for alternatives like this. turning flash off offers a smoother web experience any way you cut it.

seriously, you don't work for adobe or something do you?

[Sischa]

Originally Posted by kilron

seriously, you don't work for adobe or something do you?

Seriously you don't work for apple do you?

Seriously Apple don't drop flash cause the "web experience" is so much better without it or tidier.

I really doubt that. But lets see the facts, Youtube for example stands in competition to apple and it is owned by google the nr 2 on Jobs hate list i think behind MS.

So why should they support Flash? There is no real reason to if they can avoid it.

For my personal experience that's bad cause i could use the iPad maybe as a browser tool but without flash thats a little bit pointless now for me cause i have several favorite websites using flash plugins (and not only for advertising).

[kjk]

Originally Posted by Sischa

I really doubt that. But lets see the facts, Youtube for example stands in competition to apple and it is owned by google the nr 2 on Jobs hate list i think behind MS.

So why should they support Flash? There is no real reason to if they can avoid it.

But Google is moving to HTML5/.h264 with YouTube-mostly because it fits in with their future mobile plans, I believe.

I realize there are rivalries between businesses, but I think the "personal" aspect of said rivalries are a bit too played up. The smart businesses move above the personal, and focus on what is best for their company interests as they see them. So Microsoft continues to make their profitable Office suite for Mac OSX. Adobe continues to make their profitable Creative Suite for Mac OSX. Apple continues to provide BootCamp, to allow users to boot up Windows on their Macs. Apple continues to provide built in Flash support in their desktop Safari browser. Google continues to fund basically 80% of Firefox's development, despite having their own browser, Chrome.

Fans of companies tend to take things so personally, and expect "their" favorite companies to act in the same manner. Most businesses really are above that kind of pettiness, and are act on different motivations.

[nekokami]

Originally Posted by Sischa

But lets see the facts, Youtube for example stands in competition to apple and it is owned by google the nr 2 on Jobs hate list i think behind MS.

Speaking of facts, the iPhone comes with an app to view Youtube.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by kjk

...
Fans of companies tend to take things so personally, and expect "their" favorite companies to act in the same manner. Most businesses really are above that kind of pettiness, and are act on different motivations.

My point doesn't really have anything to do with a company. I don't care about Adobe, but I do care that many of the sites I go to are not supported at all, or only partially supported, on the iPhone.

While I can put up with it on the iPhone, on the iPad this would be unacceptable. I would imagine, many others, who may not even know what Flash is, would be irate, when their new "internet gadget" cannot display significant portions of web content.

As to kilron's surprise that most see the "millions of iPhones and iPod touches that are sold every quarter as miniscule?" - yes, it is. In the US, mobile browsers account for just over 1.3% of site hits, and for less worldwide. Worldwide, Nokia has by far the greatest browser share, with Opera mobile second.

Then there is Android, which is coming in at full force in 2010, with tons of new models. Android's share in the last 2 months of 2009 shot up 54.8%, to BlackBerrys's 22.2%, and iPhone's 20.1% increase.

Of the big ones, only the iPhone will not be capable of supporting full Flash 10. And of course, it looks like the iPad will be without Flash support.

If Jobs thinks this is not going to hurt the iPhone, and particularly the iPad, he is in for a nasty surprise, IMO.

BTW, people who turn off Flash are hardcore, indeed, in the sense that they are in a tiny, tiny minority of Flash-haters. Right up there with the "typewriter forever" and the "flat-earth" societies....

[scottjl]

Originally Posted by Sonist

My point doesn't really have anything to do with a company. I don't care about Adobe, but I do care that many of the sites I go to are not supported at all, or only partially supported, on the iPhone.

then maybe you should drop those sites a note and tell them they don't support the platforms you use? or find other sites to visit.

While I can put up with it on the iPhone, on the iPad this would be unacceptable. I would imagine, many others, who may not even know what Flash is, would be irate, when their new "internet gadget" cannot display significant portions of web content.

ok. you find it unacceptable. but don't project your feelings on "many others". especially when many people don't know, or care, what flash even is.

As to kilron's surprise that most see the "millions of iPhones and iPod touches that are sold every quarter as miniscule?" - yes, it is. In the US, mobile browsers account for just over 1.3% of site hits, and for less worldwide. Worldwide, Nokia has by far the greatest browser share, with Opera mobile second.

Then there is Android, which is coming in at full force in 2010, with tons of new models. Android's share in the last 2 months of 2009 shot up 54.8%, to BlackBerrys's 22.2%, and iPhone's 20.1% increase.

Of the big ones, only the iPhone will not be capable of supporting full Flash 10. And of course, it looks like the iPad will be without Flash support.

fyi android doesn't yet support flash. and android's share going "up 54.8%" just means they went from 2 to 3. (there are lies, damn lies, and statistics)

If Jobs thinks this is not going to hurt the iPhone, and particularly the iPad, he is in for a nasty surprise, IMO.

hmm. hasn't hurt sales so far. iphones and ipod touches sell like hotcakes. 25.7million units in 2009 worldwide according to one article i read.

BTW, people who turn off Flash are hardcore, indeed, in the sense that they are in a tiny, tiny minority of Flash-haters. Right up there with the "typewriter forever" and the "flat-earth" societies....

when you have to resort to personal attacks, you've already lost your argument.