e-reader sales have peaked. What do you want to see?

[6charlong]

I think there are two parts to this. 1) what kind of eReader to make to draw in new readers and 2) how to keep people reading (dedicated readers can ignore this one, I suppose).

I think front lighting is so important that all eReaders should have it. Different sizes of front lighted screens is a big step ahead, especially a 5-inch model that can sync with the manufacturer's larger models like a cell phone app. The idea is to target the $50-$80 price to bring in people who aren't sure they want to read that much, and make it so convenient to use that they will use it. 5-inch eReaders are light and easily pocketable.

I think the literature has to be rethought so as to use this technology to draw the interest of younger readers. Amazon started things with their "shorts," brief pieces that cost $1-$3 dollars. Try to get the publishers to unbundle some of the anthologies. I'm thinking of things like publishing Stephen King's novella (or short novel, I won't argue) called Everything's Eventual as a short. George RR Martin's short story Sand Kings is another that comes to mind, but there are lots more. Work on providing writers a good market for short fiction again.

Help new readers out.

[rkomar]

Originally Posted by BillSmithBooks

If Amazon is not working towards this $25 or Free basic Kindle reader, I'd be amazed.

I think an ereader could be that cheap if you're okay with the text coming out at a fixed rate on a single ticker-tape line with just Play/Stop buttons, and maybe some <</>> buttons for changing chapters. Otherwise, I think you're underestimating how much more complicated the ereader is than the music player. The latter is more or less contained in single chips now, while the former still needs a general computer to operate.

[BillSmithBooks]

Originally Posted by rkomar

I think an ereader could be that cheap if you're okay with the text coming out at a fixed rate on a single ticker-tape line with just Play/Stop buttons, and maybe some <</>> buttons for changing chapters. Otherwise, I think you're underestimating how much more complicated the ereader is than the music player. The latter is more or less contained in single chips now, while the former still needs a general computer to operate.

There are lots of MP3 players right now with 2.8-3 inch LCD screens, with MP3 players, photo viewers, text ebook reading programs, and movie players. Some even have games on them.

Retailing for $25 on Ebay or through sites like Geeks.com.

If the pricing trends continue (and they have generally followed the same price curve as the above mentioned MP3 players), I think that $25 price point for a very basic reader is a distinct possibility in the next year or two.

[kaufman]

I've had every generation of Kindle since I beta tested the first generation model for several month before its release. Three and a years ago, I wanted three changes to the Kindle Keyboard: No Keyboard, Touch Display, Backlight. Amazon has nice enough to give me one of those each year and I dutifully purchased each one (it helps to have a large family to give the hand-me-downs to).

After using the Paperwhite for about 6 months, I have no idea what feature they might add for the next model to make an upgrade worthy change.

Unlike the people on this conversation, I don't care about a replaceable battery. Assuming that manufacturers are using a half-way decent battery, that battery is going to last for years and years. Even if its only good for 200 charge cycles, that still 8 years even if you read so much that you recharge every two weeks. Does anyone really think they are going to keep their current device that long?

Frankly, all the things that I can think of for improving the Paperwhite are all evolutionary improvements: Fast page turning, higher resolution, smaller bezel, slightly larger screen, better sidelight. Frankly, the thing I want the most on the Paperwhite is improved software so that I can turn pages by tapping on the left border of the display.

Now, I obviously don't need a new eReader now, but I just ordered an Aura HD because it seems to have all of those improvements I am looking for (except the smaller bezel).

[rkomar]

Originally Posted by BillSmithBooks

There are lots of MP3 players right now with 2.8-3 inch LCD screens, with MP3 players, photo viewers, text ebook reading programs, and movie players. Some even have games on them.

Retailing for $25 on Ebay or through sites like Geeks.com.

If the pricing trends continue (and they have generally followed the same price curve as the above mentioned MP3 players), I think that $25 price point for a very basic reader is a distinct possibility in the next year or two.

Those programs are pretty simple, and I think it would be easy for a company that has the resources in place to produce such hardware (based on the cheap system-on-chip products already available), and license the software at a cheap price. But I really don't believe it's the same for an ereader. I doubt that there is any piece of software for reading epub/mobi/pdf that efficiently runs on embedded systems; it's just too complex (even without DRM).

We'd need to see hardware like the Raspberry Pi continue to shrink and get cheaper before we can have a full, general computing OS running at that price inside an ereader. It may eventually happen, but I think we need other markets (with complex software) to come in and make it more economically viable.

[discopig]

$25-50 for an ereader would definitely be amazing, and bring it to a whole new market. $25 is basically the price of 2 or 3 good books.

[Canuck_in_Japan]

Originally Posted by applesauce

I am trying to work out the why behind buttons. I read with one hand, and the position of the book means it sits bottom right corner in my palm, 4 fingers on the back and my thumb on the right hand frame. This makes for a very simple thumb tap to turn every page. I do have very small hands tho, and MS which gives me close to no strength in my hands. Not sure if that makes a difference. It would be so difficult to use buttons on the bottom to turn a page, I would need to put my left hand on the book to balance it. Even the side page turn buttons require a pressure that some times unbalances the reader.
I also read rather fast with a large font so it is a constant tap, Maybe slower page turners using 2 hands do it easier with buttons.
Can somebody who uses buttons tell me where it is easier. I must be missing something.

applesauce

I'm not one of the button fanatics but I do miss the home button at least on my 650. It's so nice just to hit the home button rather than having to touch the screen and then touch the home button.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by BillSmithBooks

If Amazon is not working towards this $25 or Free basic Kindle reader, I'd be amazed.

No doubt. But I'm thinking that literally free is off the table.
("Free" with strings, like a book club commitment to buy x-number of books over x-period is a viable option, though.)

A while back TIME did a report on PRIME and how much extra money its subscribers generate for Amazon (a lot!) and the question came up that "If PRIME encourages extra shopping, why not make it free?" and the answer was that when people pay for the membership, they want to get their money's worth. Paying for the product/service brings up an extra urgency to justify the purchase.

The price needs to be low enough to entice low volume readers but high enough the thing doesn't end up unused in a drawer.

I'm thinking that before the readers get much lower than $49 the build cost needs to go low enough the hardware generates a decent margin all by itself, even if it never gets used.

So, while Amazon is no doubt looking at ways to lower the entry-level price of the hardware, there is a magic threshold (maybe $49, maybe $19) below which they won't go, no matter how cheap the hardware gets at the factory side. The subsidized-hardware business is tricky because of the psychology of shoppers. And the ingenuity of hackers.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by rkomar

I doubt that there is any piece of software for reading epub/mobi/pdf that efficiently runs on embedded systems; it's just too complex (even without DRM).

It doesn't exist simply because nobody has bothered to do it.
The technology exists.

The Raspberry Pi shows the way to go because it still has a ton of (relatively) expensive things you don't need for a dirtcheap reader. Connectors, I/O ports, etc.

So does this:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/400480308539

Specifications

Display 2.8" LCD TFT display
Storage capacity 2 GB
USB 2.0
Screen resolution 320 x 240
Expansion slot TF
Control type Touch-screen
E-book format TXT

Audio format MP3, WMA, WMV, WAV, ASF
Music format MP3, WMA
Video format AVI
Photo formats JPEG, BMP, GIF
Microphone Built-in
Work time Approx. 3 - 5 hours
Recharge time Approx. 2 - 3h

Replace the single chip MP3/TXT SOC for a microcontroller and a big PROM and you'd have a $20 reader instead of an $18 Media player. The electronics are cheap; the software is a one-time effort.

Now, epub may or not need a full OS worth of support (PDF certainly does) but Mobi doesn't.
Mobi ran (and still runs) fine on the very first PalmPilot. That is a 16MHz 8-bit cpu with 128Kb of memory.
Plenty of modern microcontrollers can do a lot better.
Arduino exist for these kinds of (hobbyist-level) things.
Arduino-capable chips run $3 or so, maybe lower by now:

http://www.instructables.com/id/The-...crocontroller/

A reading library Arduino design exists, The Humane Informatics Reader:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Informatics

Estimated cost $20.

The technology to do a very low cost reader (LCD-based for now, eink soon) is not the issue. It can be done. Hobbyists and enthusiasts have done it so a big tech company can do it, too.

The issue is the *business* case.
Simply put: everybody listens to music, not everybody reads. Most certainly, not everybody reads narrative text for recreation and that is where the money lies.

The limits on commercial ebook readers are, ultimately, human limits.

If somebody can make a business case for it, it will happen.

Now, if we were talking educational devices for literacy programs to be given out for free to children (something like the HI reader above) the thing could be built next week with a grant from the Gates Foundation or other charity. A million or so to do the software in assembly could easily cut the price of the device (and increase the durability and reliability) to MP3 player levels and, in fact, use "MP4 player" components for the case, screen, and controls. (320x200 color touch screen? Perfectly fine. I read on that for years.) It would make sense for everybody involved if the intent were to build ten or twenty million to preload literacy libraries and airlift the things into developing countries or rural populations.

Tech is easy.
What is hard is the people.

[Ravenswd]

If we could create something in the $20-$30 range, what you'd have essentially is a "disposable" computer. I can imagine a future in which there are two strata of computers. Large-scale "personal" computers -- your computer, set up the way you want, with everything stored locally. And small disposable computers which are cheap and ubiquitous, that you use for as long as it functions and then throw in the trash and buy a new one.

[BillSmithBooks]

Yeah, I picture the "free" ebook reader as actually a subsidized purchase -- "Buy this ebook reader for XX ($25-50) and get the equivalent amount of store credit towards purchases."

The simplified ereader fjtorres is speaking about is very much what I had in mind ... gotta wonder if maybe this would be a way for a different ebook vendor to get a leg up on Amazon, especially knowing that it could run Mobi, HTML, and plain text (or maybe RTF/Doc) easily...this might be a device Smashwords, Weightless, Baen, Robot Trading or some other smaller, non-DRM vendor could get behind.

The idea is to get ebook readers into as many hands as possible and to appeal to people who like to read but may not be particularly avid readers -- who might read 2-8 books a year or who, for whatever reason, have not taken the plunge.

I still read on my PC and have not bought a portable reader because honestly, $75+ for a device that is fragile and prone to being easily broken, as well as finicky and prone to breakdowns, is just not a worthwhile cost to me even though I am an avid reader who has thousands of physical books. I can see the benefits of an ereader, but the idea of spending that much money for something that I am basically expected to replace every 2-3 years seems silly.

However, I do have a 3" screen MP4 player and use Calibre to convert some ebooks to plain txt...and it's not that bad an experience. Not great, but certainly good enough. I can add bookmarks wherever I stop, the smallest text setting gets a decent amount of text on the screen and scrolls a whole page with each click...it's not too bad. I miss italics, though, since they are so often used to indicate emphasis and that subtlety often gets lost in plain text.

[rjmac]

What do I want to see? One portable device to do it all and replace my phone, ebook reader, tablet, and play games. Must have - long battery life, clear readable screen, good in daylight and in the dark, good memory capacity.

[Teknikal]

Originally Posted by kaufman

Unlike the people on this conversation, I don't care about a replaceable battery. Assuming that manufacturers are using a half-way decent battery, that battery is going to last for years and years. Even if its only good for 200 charge cycles, that still 8 years even if you read so much that you recharge every two weeks. Does anyone really think they are going to keep their current device that long?

To take issue with this lithium batteries in a best case scenario lose 10-20% of the peak capacity every single year from the factory onwards while this isn't a terrible time frame it's magnified by most ereaders having a low capacity battery to start with.

I'm thinking if you treat your ereader perfectly and do everything right you will very lucky if it can even get the initial power draw for it to turn itself on in 3 or possibly 4 years.

[shalym]

Originally Posted by Teknikal

I'm thinking if you treat your ereader perfectly and do everything right you will very lucky if it can even get the initial power draw for it to turn itself on in 3 or possibly 4 years.

Actually, I still have my Kindle Keyboard bought at launch in 2010 and it still has plenty of battery life.

Shari

[cfrizz]

If I get 5-6 years out of my reader, then I have no problem buying a new one at that point since I will most certainly have gotten my moneys worth out of it. I read several books every week my readers have basically paid for themselves within a few short months.