Tracking Gentlebeings' wagers

[pdurrant]

This thread is for the tracking of any honourable wagers members make with each other on this site. One post per wager, which should set forth the general terms of the wager and links to the posts that set the wager up for full details.

When the wager has been decided, the result will be added to the post here.

Summary: One post per wager. No comments.

Non-wager posts will be deleted without notice or warning.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by 3bayjunkie

ill take bets on that. Ill still be here in 5 years if the forum is still up so lets say. 20 dollars per 1 year short you are pdurrant. and ill pay you 20 dollars for every year over I am.

Hmm.... So I say 5 years and you say 20 years. We'd need to define terms a bit. How about

1) Mobileread must still be running, and we must both still be active members.
2) The start date is 1st January 2011
3) The end date is the date a commercial product is shipped and received by a real customer. The bet to be settled within 30 days of the end date.
4) The product must contain a colour (at least thousands of colours) very low power (about the same as current eInk displays) display capable of 25fps (UK video) refresh rate. The power requirement is for colour ebook display. Display of video may use more power.
5) In case of dispute as to whether a shipped product meets these conditions, the dispute to be decided by a Mobileread poll lasting 14 days.

If such a product appears with an end date before 1st January 2031, you pay me $20 for every year or part year. e.g. if the first such product arrived in customer hands on 15 November 2025, you'd pay me (2031-2025)*$20 = $120

If such a product appears with an end date after 31st December 2015, I'll pay you $20 for very year or part of year. e.g. if the first such product ships on 15 November 2025, I'd pay you (2025-2015)*$20 = $200.

Hmm.. if it ships in 2023 we break even. If it ships earlier, I make money. If it ships later, you make money.

I'd be very happy with such a bet!

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by 3bayjunkie

well if thats the case then I will owe you $750. so we will see =)

I calculate it as $320 or possibly $300, depending on when we start the bet.

I have to say I think it a very poor bet from your point of view. But I suppose if I didn't think that, I wouldn't be willing to accept!

Are we on?

[3bayjunkie]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

I calculate it as $320 or possibly $300, depending on when we start the bet.

I have to say I think it a very poor bet from your point of view. But I suppose if I didn't think that, I wouldn't be willing to accept!

Are we on?

yes that sounds fair! =) oh btw you put $2 on your post instead of $20

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by 3bayjunkie

yes that sounds fair! =) oh btw you put $2 on your post instead of $20

Typo fixed. OK, you're on!

[pdurrant]

Wager: Going DRM-free will not harm TOR's ebook sales in a significant way over the first year of DRM-free sales. (Details, as usual, in original posts.)

Participants:
pdurrant

Spoiler:

If, after going DRM free at or below their current ebook prices, TOR's ebook sales over the following year do not increase by at least 75% of the general ebook market unit increase (Or SF/Fantasy category increase if that is, by then, counted separately), I will cease to advocate for DRM free ebooks, and, indeed, I'll recommend that publishers should keep DRM on their ebooks.

stonetools

Spoiler:

So the likelihood is that prices willl stay the same or rise. As to whether there will be significant losses from casual sharing, the purpose of this experiment is to generate data on this issue. There will be solid results in a year or so. If there are no significant losses, I will change my mind on the issue and switch to urging publishers to abandon DRM.

[EDIT, October 2014: I think it's safe to say that I (pdurrant) have won this one. But stonetools doesn't seem to be active at MobileRead any more.]

[pdurrant]

Wager: For 1/2 ounce gold (RSE) against one US cent (Fluribus) on each of two propositions.

Wager a: The Walt Disney Corporation, directly or indrectly, will attempt to have US Copyright term extended again before the end of 2022

Wager b: That the attempt will succeed.

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

I have one 1/2 oz gold piece that says the attempt will be made before 2022.

I have another that says it will get slipped in successfully (in a last minute negotiation before 2023, as a rider to some other bill.)



Bet?

Originally Posted by Fluribus

I have a standard zinc penny that says it won't. He's an argumentative little fellow.

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Done. A penny here, a penny there....


The mouse house is simply not going to roll over and go to sleep when their business model is at stake. They haven't in the past, they won't in the future.

[pdurrant]

A wager between and Ralph Sir Edward and me.

Originally Posted by pdurrant

No-one will run a e-cat in a sustainable way (i.e. self-generating the power for its heating coils) in the next five years.

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Done. Name the stakes.

Originally Posted by pdurrant

A gold sovereign seems fine. (Current value around £200)

OUTCOME:
Ralph Sir Edward acknowledged that no-one had run an e-cat (or equivalent) in a sustainable way before the end of 2019, and settled the wager in full.

[John F]

A wager between Cinisajoy and HarryT (in regards to the Kindle Oasis):

Cinisajoy:

Originally Posted by Cinisajoy

I would bet a $10 Amazon gift card that there is a port in the charging cover.

HarryT:

Originally Posted by HarryT

Done.

OUTCOME:
The Oasis charging cover does not have a charging port. $10 donated to charity.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Hmm.... So I say 5 years and you say 20 years. We'd need to define terms a bit. How about

1) Mobileread must still be running, and we must both still be active members.
2) The start date is 1st January 2011
3) The end date is the date a commercial product is shipped and received by a real customer. The bet to be settled within 30 days of the end date.
4) The product must contain a colour (at least thousands of colours) very low power (about the same as current eInk displays) display capable of 25fps (UK video) refresh rate. The power requirement is for colour ebook display. Display of video may use more power.
5) In case of dispute as to whether a shipped product meets these conditions, the dispute to be decided by a Mobileread poll lasting 14 days.

If such a product appears with an end date before 1st January 2031, you pay me $20 for every year or part year. e.g. if the first such product arrived in customer hands on 15 November 2025, you'd pay me (2031-2025)*$20 = $120

If such a product appears with an end date after 31st December 2015, I'll pay you $20 for very year or part of year. e.g. if the first such product ships on 15 November 2025, I'd pay you (2025-2015)*$20 = $200.

Hmm.. if it ships in 2023 we break even. If it ships earlier, I make money. If it ships later, you make money.

I'd be very happy with such a bet!

I've just noticed that we've got to 2023 without a commercial product with a colour low power reflective display capable of video.

My five years was definitely wrong, alas.

But since 3bayjunkie hasn't been on MobileRead since 2011, I think I shall consider the bet cancelled.