After Apple’s Rise, a Bruising Fall -- Gravity?

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by pl001

Their market share is.

RIM fans used to repeat the same things...making a profit, sales increasing, etc, etc. Then within 2 years the bottom fell out. Now Apple is not RIM, but don't assume that just because they are increasing sales that everything is great. Apple has very few products, the oldest and arguably most limited mobile OS on the market, and almost no diversification.

But Apple has never been obsessed with market share, only profits.
That is how they roll; projecting other expectations onto them will be, well, fruitless...

Whether it works out or not is tea leaf reading.
$150B in the bank and $3B monthly profits is a lot of momentum; they can coast on that for a decade.

[Fourl29]

Originally Posted by forsooth

down in mine you think much of gravity and stone and earth above

I am rather confused with what you are saying.

[fjtorres]

Here's a clear explanation of what is *really* going on:
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...-to-investors/

Apple is trading at an astonishingly low valuation, with a p/e ratio in single digits, because it has now become that animal investors like least: a slow-growing tech stock. Either one is fine on its own, and both slow-growing stocks and fast-growing tech stocks can support much higher multiples than Apple is seeing right now. But conservative investors, who like slow-growing stocks with high dividends, are constitutionally uncomfortable with the volatility inherent in the tech world. And technology investors, who are happy taking that kind of risk, want to see substantial growth. Apple, notwithstanding the fact that it’s one of the most valuable companies in the world, is falling through the capital-markets cracks.

Tech investors are all about growth potential and *future* revenue growth (like Amazon) and Apple is now in Microsoft territory; a hugely profitable company, but so big that even massive growth in absolute terms looks small compared to its base size. Which is to say, stability smothers variability. Noticeable growth is hard but so is noticeable decline. Which is why they are dramatically increasing their dividends, to make themselves acceptable to conservative, non-tech investors.

As far as stockmarket gamblers are concerned, Apple is now officially boring.

[din155]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

As far as stockmarket gamblers are concerned, Apple is now officially boring.

Hmm..now they can properly sue samsung.

[wannabee]

Hang on, let me get this straight. Apple's sales went from a gazillion billion to only nine tenths of a gazillion billion dollars and now they're gonna go broke.
What on earth will I do with my iPhones, iMacs, G5s, MacMini and iPad?

[Graham]

Originally Posted by wannabee

Hang on, let me get this straight. Apple's sales went from a gazillion billion to only nine tenths of a gazillion billion dollars and now they're gonna go broke.
What on earth will I do with my iPhones, iMacs, G5s, MacMini and iPad?

Quick! Buy more!

Graham

[afv011]

Originally Posted by wannabee

Hang on, let me get this straight. Apple's sales went from a gazillion billion to only nine tenths of a gazillion billion dollars and now they're gonna go broke.
What on earth will I do with my iPhones, iMacs, G5s, MacMini and iPad?

It's a matter of expectations, not absolute numbers.

Here's an analogy: say a bunch of friends make a team and join the NBA, and at the end of the season they are second from the bottom - that would be a HUGE achievement. Now say the Dallas Mavericks (2010-2011 winners) achieved the same second from the bottom result - the same exact absolute number, yet that would be a HUGE disappointment and heads would roll.

[teija]

I've had an iPhone for about 3 years now. First a 3GS, which I had no complaints about, then a 4, and then in February my hubby upgraded me to a 4S (at which time I said I was happy with my 4, but thank you...better camera at least).

I had NEVER been into an Apple store before, but thanks to the new 4S, I've now been there twice in one week this month. Bad/faulty hardware on the first device, then a completely different hardware fault on the replacement. I'm on the THIRD device now but have still not bothered to restore, as my faith in it is less than stellar.

Then, we saw this article, which has me now thinking twice about any more Apple purchases:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/04...es_to_foxconn/

I fear that without Steve Jobs at the helm with his fastidious quality control, Apple will just become another "tech company" that is only focused on the bottom line, rather than the customer

[wodin]

Originally Posted by wizwor

... I'm no iFan and life sucks for those who bought AAPL at $700, but Apple is only an amazing product away from recovery. For all we know, this product is inching towards the market at this very instance.

When is the last time Apple had an amazing product? The iPod? Nope! I had an MP3 player long before the iPod. The iPhone? Nope! There were at least three iterations of smart phones before the iPhone. The GUI? Nope! Stolen from Palo Alto. The iPad? Nope. Apple TV? iTunes? Candy colored iMacs? Apple ][s? Nope, nope, nope and nope!

What Apple has always had is the ability to buff up existing technology and superb marketing, until they lost their Salesman in Chief.

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by wodin

When is the last time Apple had an amazing product? The iPod? Nope! I had an MP3 player long before the iPod. The iPhone? Nope! There were at least three iterations of smart phones before the iPhone.

You appear to have redefined the word amazing to have something to do with being the first to do something.
What do you think it means?

The GUI? Nope! Stolen from Palo Alto. The iPad? Nope.

What, no reason at all for the iPad?

[wodin]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

What, no reason at all for the iPad?

Origami, or don’t you remember the concept that M$ tried and failed to sell back in the early 'oughts.

I still have a touch screen Asus Netbook convertible that ran Windows XP with touch extensions. It took Jobs to take the concept, make it workable, and market it; but the fact remains it’s still evolutionary rather than revolutionary.

What's amazing is that he could sell old ideas and make people think he invented them.

[elcreative]

Originally Posted by wodin

Origami, or don’t you remember the concept that M$ tried and failed to sell back in the early 'oughts.

I still have a touch screen Asus Netbook convertible that ran Windows XP with touch extensions. It took Jobs to take the concept, make it workable, and market it; but the fact remains it’s still evolutionary rather than revolutionary.

What's amazing is that he could sell old ideas and make people think he invented them.

What was remarkable was taking concepts that others couldn't get consumers interested in, refining them and showing the buyer something they could get interested in... hey, John Logie Baird invented TV but it took the evolution from mechanical to electronic scanning to make it marketable... and none of the things were exactly old ideas just not hot ideas until refreshed by Apple

Of course reality doesn't matter and Jobs was the devil and Apple's now gonna burn in hell... and I'm glad your Asus with touch suits you, I had one and got rid of it after three weeks as it drove me insane and I still hate touch on a laptop/desktop but love it on tablets/smartphones...

And before anyone starts on the pro/anti Apple rubbish, read my devices...

[wodin]

Exactly, I've been extolling Apple’s virtues which are:

Originally Posted by wodin

What Apple has always had is the ability to buff up existing technology and superb marketing, until they lost their Salesman in Chief.

And have refrained from shouting its sins. But what I’m really trying to point out is that without Jobs’ marketing genius I believe they are going to have a hard time of it, and their current woes are merely the first indication.

[tron_1970]

Originally Posted by wodin

Exactly, I've been extolling Apple’s virtues which are:



And have refrained from shouting its sins. But what I’m really trying to point out is that without Jobs’ marketing genius I believe they are going to have a hard time of it, and their current woes are merely the first indication.

What current woes? Apple took in 9.5 billion US dollars in profit. In what world is 9.5 billion dollars in profit a lost?

Think about that, not million or a hundred million but a billion and nine of them.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by tron_1970

What current woes? Apple took in 9.5 billion US dollars in profit. In what world is 9.5 billion dollars in profit a lost?

Current woes: profits have fallen for the first time in a decade, and the expectation is for a flat third quarter, so indeed woes. Let's face it, iOS is getting very long in the tooth, it has barely changed since 2007 and that's an eternity in this market.