Pogue Article from Scientific American

toronado · 11-27-2010, 10:15 PM

This is kinda old (Nov 4th), but didn't see it posted anywhere:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...with-e-readers

Quote:

You can still read a 200-year-old printed book. But the odds of being able to read one of today’s e-books in 200 years, or even 20, is practically zero.

Anyone else find that statement a bit silly? Especially from a tech writer. What is his assertion? That no conversion process could/would take place during the 200 (or 20) years from obsolete electronic formats to current ones?

MikeFromHC · 11-28-2010, 01:08 AM

An amazing amount of ignorance from SciAm. The danger does exist and can be found in another bit of wrongness in the article.

Quote:

...Second, when these tech changes do occur, they tend not to wipe out the existing technologies; instead they just add on.

Some do, some don't and some are not add ons. Aside from sharing the EMF spectrum I don't think TV was an add on to radio (or to X-ray machines and microwaves)

Our ability to produce vacuum tubes has been essentially lost and we would have to start over again if the need arose.
The same thing could happen with book storage the hardware and software parts are unimportant.

What with the newer ability to transfer the entire contents of the library of science between medium in a few seconds and what Google is doing with books, I don't see this as a problem

Fringecup · 11-28-2010, 02:49 AM

I just worry about the fact that knowledge seems to be saved or transferred between media if it is considered at the time of securing it that it is worth saving. What happens if social conditions change after certain ideas have been lost? After all, we've already seen how certain governments have tried to rewrite history - couldn't this be a problem?

Otherwise, I don't worry about most ideas being lost.

Belfaborac · 11-28-2010, 03:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeFromHC

Our ability to produce vacuum tubes has been essentially lost and we would have to start over again if the need arose.

It has?? Well bugger, why didn't anybody tell me that before I went ahead and bought my tube-powered amplifier?

Seriously though, and pardon the OT injection, but our ability to produce vacuum tubes is in fact greater today than it has been for a couple of decades. The selection of tubes available is far more limited than it was before, given that today's production is geared almost exclusively towards audio use, but we are at exactly no risk of losing the technology or know-how for the "foreseeable future".

Bikeridr · 11-28-2010, 03:15 AM

When the Compact Disc were introduced, "everybody" was concerned that the media wouldn't last longer than 10years tops before the active (aluminium) layer would be subject to deterioration and fungii. Well, that concern was overrated. I still have (and perfectly playable) CD's from when I bought the very first (music) CD player back in 1985. So, the discs last at least 25 years. (Though most is ripped for use with my Sonos).

The same fuzz came about when digital cameras (especially dSLR's) flooded the market.
"How about compatibility? File conversions? Software? Printers? Printer ink? ... " and so on.
Nothing of this is heard of today.

Technology will continue to improve. I for sure will not lay awake all night, afraid of loosing my ebooks in twenty or twohundred years. (Or my music, or pictures)

HarryT · 11-28-2010, 03:38 AM

The concern about losing (not "loosing", please!) the ability to read old media is a valid one. If somebody were to give you a reel of computer tape from the 1960s, how many people here would have the equipment to be able to read it? This is a very real issue; a huge amount of data from the Apollo era of NASA has been lost because the tapes were poorly stored and have deteriorated beyond the point of recovery, never having been transferred to more durable storage formats.

Belfaborac · 11-28-2010, 04:08 AM

Surely it is not important for all of us to be able to access data in every possible format under the sun? Sure, if someone gave me 60s tape reel I'd have no method accessing the data myself, but I would have no trouble at all finding someone who could and who could transfer the data onto a hard drive or memory stick for me. The same goes for every other storage medium I can think of, from punch cards to floppy disks (which I also personally can't access any longer).

Storage is a concern, to some degree, but accidents and negligence will always be an issue. If the data is important to someone, presumably it will be kept safe and transferred to current formats when necessary. If that isn't done, then...well, tough. In any case, that's a separate issue from the ability to access it, which we haven't lost for any format I'm aware of (which, I'm sure, does not include them all).

megacoupe · 11-28-2010, 04:47 AM

What worries me more is that most of our media these days requires an electric current to access it. I'm not saying that the apocalypse is coming (it most likely isn't), but the idea makes me pause: if something were to make us lose access to electricity, what happens to all of our data? How will our current storage methods affect future generations trying to learn about the past? We've been able to dig up ancient stone tablets to learn about the distant past; we have books and paintings that are hundreds of years old. They require nothing more than our eyes to get information from them. If someone in the future digs up a hard drive (ignoring the extreme likelihood that the materials of the hard drive will have deteriorated in some way), will they be able to figure out how to get the data off of it?

I wonder if we shouldn't be investing in some kind of more permanent storage solution that doesn't require power and can survive a significant amount of time without degrading...

mrmikel · 11-28-2010, 06:12 AM

Pogue is right on. Some old motion pictures are gone because of the their media. If anything of value is stored on a 8-track tape is of value, it is even now hard to find a reader. Unless the reader is stored with the content and the reader will work hundreds of years from now. information and ideas will be lost.

Who is to say which ideas are important in the long term?

We do know many paper books have lasted for hundreds of years. Electronic storage is much more perishable. There needs to be a formal global non-political way to preserve electronic data or we will lose our history.

Doug Huffman · 11-28-2010, 08:17 AM

Media obsolescence is a concern. More pressing is sorting timeless literature from the chaff of post-modern creativity.

alecE · 11-28-2010, 11:26 AM

There's a need to distinguish between two problems:
- poor storage leading to physical degradation such that the media cannot be read - HarryT's point about Nasa magnetic tapes is pertinent;
- obsolescence of the media reading device technology. For example, how easily can we now play an old 78 rpm gramophone record? How about a phonograph? I have a friend, one of whose jobs is to rescue old film from forgotten storage. I understand from her that there's only one organisation in the UK now able to transfer old nitrate film to DVD.

Penforhire · 11-28-2010, 11:34 AM

Harry is right, this is a VERY real issue. I face it on several fronts.

What format does my company use to distribute documents? Right now we've settled on PDF but it seems XML may eventually push that aside.

Our older CAD files, from when we used different programs and Unix machines, are a major issue because conversions to our current formats are hit-and-miss yet these product lines must be maintained.

For the hobbyist, perhaps the greatest issue is not the file format but rather the storage medium. Read any 8" floppies lately? How about 5.25"? Or Zip drives? My new PC's don't even handle 3.5" floppies any more. Professionally we use backed-up hard drives but that gets a little cumbersome or expensive for personal use.

On the format side, don't be so sure you'll have nifty format conversion from, say, Epub, in 20 years. If something falls far enough out of favor it gets awfully niche-y. The common answer, if you care about your library, is to keep converting and re-filing as technology advances as much as possible. Less common is, I know people who essentially put some hardware in time capsules, like mothballing a current PC. I wish this never happens, as I have to sometimes work on an old Mac, circa 1985, to extract catalog information (some of our product lines date back to the 1940's). Darn good thing current Quark Express versions can read those ancient files but I still have some manual clean-up to do after conversion.

Kali Yuga · 11-28-2010, 12:14 PM

Archiving digital media is definitely a major issue, as it is with just about anything that requires an intermediary device.

Magnetic media is inherently unstable; hard drives use moving parts, which can break or degrade; and all of it requires an intermediary device, which may not be available in the future.

The problem with "oh, someone will have a playback device in the future" fails to see that the volume of data that may need to be updated could easily overwhelm the remaining devices. Let's say the US Census Bureau used punch cards in the early 80s, and for some reason 30 years from now that data needs to be recompiled. Good luck getting a punch card reader, let alone one reliable to handle all that information; and the conversion process will become a major bottleneck.

That said, paper is no guarantee of longevity. Paper can be lost or destroyed, languages can change. I'd be shocked if any book in my collection is actually more than 50 or 60 years old, and I would not be surprised at all if there were tons of pulp novels or sci-fi short stories that are essentially lost forever.

Fbone · 11-28-2010, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

This is a very real issue; a huge amount of data from the Apollo era of NASA has been lost because the tapes were poorly stored and have deteriorated beyond the point of recovery, never having been transferred to more durable storage formats.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmikel

Pogue is right on. Some old motion pictures are gone because of the their media.

I just finished reading through a retrospective of early motion pictures. The silent and early talking films. The vast majority of them have been lost to the deterioration of the nitrate films, poor storage conditions, fires and non conversion. The reference book went on to say about 80% of all films have been lost. There are actors and actresses whose entire careers were lost on film and are only known to exist by reviews in the magazines at the time. Most of Gloria Swanson's work is gone and some say her best work too.

Ravensknight · 11-28-2010, 03:46 PM

Dang! I thought people were worried about world hunger, war and other such trivial stuff.

Sarcasm aside, now that we know that most of our data will be obsolete in X years [ie, we've learned from the hubris of those who thought that the NASA tapes would be around forever], it seems that we'll do a better job of saving/converting what is important.

Of course, all of this ignores basic human nature. Which is to put off to the last minute[or later] what should have been done 2 weeks ago. I only started backing up my computer after losing 2 years of pictures.

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11-28-2010, 02:49 AM	#3
Fringecup Enthusiast Posts: 33 Karma: 127588 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Campbell River, BC Device: Sony Reader 600 Touch Edition	I just worry about the fact that knowledge seems to be saved or transferred between media if it is considered at the time of securing it that it is worth saving. What happens if social conditions change after certain ideas have been lost? After all, we've already seen how certain governments have tried to rewrite history - couldn't this be a problem? Otherwise, I don't worry about most ideas being lost.

11-28-2010, 03:15 AM	#5
Bikeridr Information Acquirer Posts: 436 Karma: 4265156 Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Latvia, Rigas Rajons Device: Kindle 3 International, Pocketbook Color	When the Compact Disc were introduced, "everybody" was concerned that the media wouldn't last longer than 10years tops before the active (aluminium) layer would be subject to deterioration and fungii. Well, that concern was overrated. I still have (and perfectly playable) CD's from when I bought the very first (music) CD player back in 1985. So, the discs last at least 25 years. (Though most is ripped for use with my Sonos). The same fuzz came about when digital cameras (especially dSLR's) flooded the market. "How about compatibility? File conversions? Software? Printers? Printer ink? ... " and so on. Nothing of this is heard of today. Technology will continue to improve. I for sure will not lay awake all night, afraid of loosing my ebooks in twenty or twohundred years. (Or my music, or pictures)

11-28-2010, 03:38 AM	#6
HarryT eBook Enthusiast Posts: 85,544 Karma: 93383043 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis 2, iPad Pro 10.5", iPhone 6	The concern about losing (not "loosing", please!) the ability to read old media is a valid one. If somebody were to give you a reel of computer tape from the 1960s, how many people here would have the equipment to be able to read it? This is a very real issue; a huge amount of data from the Apollo era of NASA has been lost because the tapes were poorly stored and have deteriorated beyond the point of recovery, never having been transferred to more durable storage formats.

11-28-2010, 04:08 AM	#7
Belfaborac Wizard Posts: 1,498 Karma: 5199835 Join Date: May 2010 Location: Norway Device: Sony PRS-505, PRS-950	Surely it is not important for all of us to be able to access data in every possible format under the sun? Sure, if someone gave me 60s tape reel I'd have no method accessing the data myself, but I would have no trouble at all finding someone who could and who could transfer the data onto a hard drive or memory stick for me. The same goes for every other storage medium I can think of, from punch cards to floppy disks (which I also personally can't access any longer). Storage is a concern, to some degree, but accidents and negligence will always be an issue. If the data is important to someone, presumably it will be kept safe and transferred to current formats when necessary. If that isn't done, then...well, tough. In any case, that's a separate issue from the ability to access it, which we haven't lost for any format I'm aware of (which, I'm sure, does not include them all).

11-28-2010, 04:47 AM	#8
megacoupe Connoisseur Posts: 80 Karma: 8682 Join Date: Aug 2007 Device: Kindle Voyage	What worries me more is that most of our media these days requires an electric current to access it. I'm not saying that the apocalypse is coming (it most likely isn't), but the idea makes me pause: if something were to make us lose access to electricity, what happens to all of our data? How will our current storage methods affect future generations trying to learn about the past? We've been able to dig up ancient stone tablets to learn about the distant past; we have books and paintings that are hundreds of years old. They require nothing more than our eyes to get information from them. If someone in the future digs up a hard drive (ignoring the extreme likelihood that the materials of the hard drive will have deteriorated in some way), will they be able to figure out how to get the data off of it? I wonder if we shouldn't be investing in some kind of more permanent storage solution that doesn't require power and can survive a significant amount of time without degrading...

11-28-2010, 06:12 AM	#9
mrmikel Color me gone Posts: 2,089 Karma: 1445295 Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Central Oregon Coast Device: PRS-300	Pogue is right on. Some old motion pictures are gone because of the their media. If anything of value is stored on a 8-track tape is of value, it is even now hard to find a reader. Unless the reader is stored with the content and the reader will work hundreds of years from now. information and ideas will be lost. Who is to say which ideas are important in the long term? We do know many paper books have lasted for hundreds of years. Electronic storage is much more perishable. There needs to be a formal global non-political way to preserve electronic data or we will lose our history.

11-28-2010, 08:17 AM	#10
Doug Huffman Banned Posts: 102 Karma: 7860 Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Washington Island, across Death's Door, Wisconsin, USA Device: KINDLE 3 WiFi	Media obsolescence is a concern. More pressing is sorting timeless literature from the chaff of post-modern creativity.

11-28-2010, 11:26 AM	#11
alecE Evangelist Posts: 412 Karma: 546196 Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: UK canal boat Device: sony prs505, prs650, kobo Glo HD liseuses	There's a need to distinguish between two problems: - poor storage leading to physical degradation such that the media cannot be read - HarryT's point about Nasa magnetic tapes is pertinent; - obsolescence of the media reading device technology. For example, how easily can we now play an old 78 rpm gramophone record? How about a phonograph? I have a friend, one of whose jobs is to rescue old film from forgotten storage. I understand from her that there's only one organisation in the UK now able to transfer old nitrate film to DVD.

11-28-2010, 11:34 AM	#12
Penforhire Wizard Posts: 2,230 Karma: 7145404 Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Southern California Device: Kindle Voyage & iPhone 7+	Harry is right, this is a VERY real issue. I face it on several fronts. What format does my company use to distribute documents? Right now we've settled on PDF but it seems XML may eventually push that aside. Our older CAD files, from when we used different programs and Unix machines, are a major issue because conversions to our current formats are hit-and-miss yet these product lines must be maintained. For the hobbyist, perhaps the greatest issue is not the file format but rather the storage medium. Read any 8" floppies lately? How about 5.25"? Or Zip drives? My new PC's don't even handle 3.5" floppies any more. Professionally we use backed-up hard drives but that gets a little cumbersome or expensive for personal use. On the format side, don't be so sure you'll have nifty format conversion from, say, Epub, in 20 years. If something falls far enough out of favor it gets awfully niche-y. The common answer, if you care about your library, is to keep converting and re-filing as technology advances as much as possible. Less common is, I know people who essentially put some hardware in time capsules, like mothballing a current PC. I wish this never happens, as I have to sometimes work on an old Mac, circa 1985, to extract catalog information (some of our product lines date back to the 1940's). Darn good thing current Quark Express versions can read those ancient files but I still have some manual clean-up to do after conversion.

11-28-2010, 12:14 PM	#13
Kali Yuga Professional Contrarian Posts: 2,045 Karma: 3289631 Join Date: Mar 2009 Device: Kindle 4 No Touchie	Archiving digital media is definitely a major issue, as it is with just about anything that requires an intermediary device. Magnetic media is inherently unstable; hard drives use moving parts, which can break or degrade; and all of it requires an intermediary device, which may not be available in the future. The problem with "oh, someone will have a playback device in the future" fails to see that the volume of data that may need to be updated could easily overwhelm the remaining devices. Let's say the US Census Bureau used punch cards in the early 80s, and for some reason 30 years from now that data needs to be recompiled. Good luck getting a punch card reader, let alone one reliable to handle all that information; and the conversion process will become a major bottleneck. That said, paper is no guarantee of longevity. Paper can be lost or destroyed, languages can change. I'd be shocked if any book in my collection is actually more than 50 or 60 years old, and I would not be surprised at all if there were tons of pulp novels or sci-fi short stories that are essentially lost forever.

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11-28-2010, 03:46 PM	#15
Ravensknight Serpent Rider Posts: 1,123 Karma: 10219804 Join Date: Jun 2009 Device: Sony 350; Nook STR; Oasis	Dang! I thought people were worried about world hunger, war and other such trivial stuff. Sarcasm aside, now that we know that most of our data will be obsolete in X years [ie, we've learned from the hubris of those who thought that the NASA tapes would be around forever], it seems that we'll do a better job of saving/converting what is important. Of course, all of this ignores basic human nature. Which is to put off to the last minute[or later] what should have been done 2 weeks ago. I only started backing up my computer after losing 2 years of pictures.