Publishers Are Not As Dumb As People Think

Scott Nicholson · 06-10-2010, 04:26 PM

Anyone worried about the fate of publishers should maybe worry more about the fate of writers...well, at least if you're a writer.

http://megalithbooks.blogspot.com/20...as-people.html

Scott

dadioflex · 06-10-2010, 05:24 PM

Edit.

Barcey · 06-10-2010, 06:17 PM

I believe that any disruptive technology forces a re-evaluation of the value chain. Short term it hurts a lot of parties but long term the parties adding value remain. Short term there is going to be pain for authors but long term I believe they are adding the most value and they deserve the largest piece of the pie. Everything else is incremental value and should be compensated as such . The authors have to recognize this and take charge. (Some already are). It's difficult to do now because pulp sales are still the majority but the tipping point is coming fast.

The publishers are focusing on the price and missing the big picture that they aren't delivering the value to support their cut of the pie. Amazon and Apple are happy to collect their 30% and don't care how the 70% is divided. They're as happy to pay the author the 70% as the publisher.

I think the decline and fall of the big publishing houses is coming. Not because they're stupid but because they aren't adding value. Publishers will remain but they'll be smaller and able to demonstrate their value.

The biggest threat to authors is the same as it is today. Too many authors chasing too few readers.

BVLarson · 06-10-2010, 11:44 PM

Wow Barcey, that was an insightful reply. I couldn't agree more.

I would add that the big pubs will probably not figure it out. Historically, people who have money try to keep it, while people who don't try to figure out how to take it from those who do. This is a situation where defense can't win, so the big guy dies. I mean, look at Kmart and Walmart. Or Yahoo and Google. The new guy ate the big older guy, and it was totally obvious, but the older organization could not make even simple "copy the competition" type changes to save itself.
-bvl

BVLarson · 06-10-2010, 11:49 PM

After reading your blog, I have to say I agree with what you are saying about e-rights too, Scott. The publishers are sewing up authors. But as the cashflow shifts by the billions away from them to places like Amazon, Apple, Google and worst of all, Authors of new books, they will shrink.

Scott Nicholson · 06-11-2010, 10:57 AM

I agree with your comments, Barcey, except I believe "too many authors and too few readers" is not a threat to authors. If the author deserves readers, it will be easier than ever to find them. It's only "bad authors" or ones who aren't connecting with their readers who face a threat, and I am not sure I would even consider them "authors" if they aren't serving a reader.

Flip it around and you can see that the reader is finally going to have more power than ever, with a vast selection, influence over pricing, and the ability to truly determine bestsellers without the artificial structures now in place (current bestsellers are determined long before shelf date--immediately upon the signing of the contract, almost always before the book is even written).

Scott

Robin O'Neill · 06-13-2010, 08:28 AM

The pond you would have fished in for readers if you were published mainstream may be quite different when suddenly you're looking at the entire world having easy access to your work. A small niche market suddenly becomes huge.

Robin

sbaum4853 · 06-13-2010, 01:23 PM

Great article. The upheaval has begun, but really, we're in the early stages. eBooks are still a small percentage of total sales. In two years or so, when eBooks make up 50% or more of total sales, the entire distribution chain as we know it will be toast.

dpapathanasiou · 06-13-2010, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scott Nicholson

Anyone worried about the fate of publishers should maybe worry more about the fate of writers...well, at least if you're a writer.

http://megalithbooks.blogspot.com/20...as-people.html

Scott

Boyd Morrison's experience is interesting (i.e., "Take Boyd Morrison's deal for The Ark, after making a name selling $1.99 e-books. He was signed by a major publisher and now his e-book is $11.99 and he's not making much more per sale than he did back then").

I wonder if he would have been better of continuing to sell e-books only, and forgoing a traditional publisher's contract.

dadioflex · 06-13-2010, 07:24 PM

Edit.

jaxx6166 · 06-13-2010, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dadioflex

I might be way off here... long term, traditional publishing is going away. Short term however, being traditionally published has other benefits. You get a higher profile for one thing. And has anyone ever sold movie rights to an indie e-book?

Jeremy Robinson actually managed to sell the film rights to Anktaros Rising. I think some other indie shop bought it to make an animated film.

dadioflex · 06-14-2010, 05:31 PM

Edit.

P.A.Woodburn · 06-14-2010, 11:09 PM

I think there are at least two other indie writers who have sold movie rights unfortunately I am new to all of this and don't remember their names.

Dr. Drib · 06-15-2010, 06:06 AM

...and not as smart as people would like.

Don

06-10-2010, 04:26 PM	#1
Scott Nicholson Scott Nicholson, author Posts: 363 Karma: 2029337 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Boone NC Device: Kindle	Publishers Are Not As Dumb As People Think Anyone worried about the fate of publishers should maybe worry more about the fate of writers...well, at least if you're a writer. http://megalithbooks.blogspot.com/20...as-people.html Scott Last edited by Scott Nicholson; 06-10-2010 at 04:26 PM. Reason: spelling

06-10-2010, 05:24 PM	#2
dadioflex Dyslexic Count Posts: 526 Karma: 5041991 Join Date: Aug 2008 Device: Palm TX, Advent Vega, iPad, iPod Touch, Kindle	Edit. Last edited by dadioflex; 12-15-2010 at 05:21 PM.

06-10-2010, 11:44 PM	#4
BVLarson Author Posts: 123 Karma: 900 Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: California Device: Kindle	Wow Barcey, that was an insightful reply. I couldn't agree more. I would add that the big pubs will probably not figure it out. Historically, people who have money try to keep it, while people who don't try to figure out how to take it from those who do. This is a situation where defense can't win, so the big guy dies. I mean, look at Kmart and Walmart. Or Yahoo and Google. The new guy ate the big older guy, and it was totally obvious, but the older organization could not make even simple "copy the competition" type changes to save itself. -bvl Last edited by BVLarson; 06-10-2010 at 11:49 PM.

06-11-2010, 10:57 AM	#6
Scott Nicholson Scott Nicholson, author Posts: 363 Karma: 2029337 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Boone NC Device: Kindle	threat to authors I agree with your comments, Barcey, except I believe "too many authors and too few readers" is not a threat to authors. If the author deserves readers, it will be easier than ever to find them. It's only "bad authors" or ones who aren't connecting with their readers who face a threat, and I am not sure I would even consider them "authors" if they aren't serving a reader. Flip it around and you can see that the reader is finally going to have more power than ever, with a vast selection, influence over pricing, and the ability to truly determine bestsellers without the artificial structures now in place (current bestsellers are determined long before shelf date--immediately upon the signing of the contract, almost always before the book is even written). Scott

06-13-2010, 07:24 PM	#10
dadioflex Dyslexic Count Posts: 526 Karma: 5041991 Join Date: Aug 2008 Device: Palm TX, Advent Vega, iPad, iPod Touch, Kindle	Edit. Last edited by dadioflex; 12-15-2010 at 05:22 PM.

06-10-2010, 06:17 PM	#3
Barcey Wizard Posts: 1,531 Karma: 8059866 Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Canada Device: Kobo H2O / Aura HD / Glo / iPad3	I believe that any disruptive technology forces a re-evaluation of the value chain. Short term it hurts a lot of parties but long term the parties adding value remain. Short term there is going to be pain for authors but long term I believe they are adding the most value and they deserve the largest piece of the pie. Everything else is incremental value and should be compensated as such . The authors have to recognize this and take charge. (Some already are). It's difficult to do now because pulp sales are still the majority but the tipping point is coming fast. The publishers are focusing on the price and missing the big picture that they aren't delivering the value to support their cut of the pie. Amazon and Apple are happy to collect their 30% and don't care how the 70% is divided. They're as happy to pay the author the 70% as the publisher. I think the decline and fall of the big publishing houses is coming. Not because they're stupid but because they aren't adding value. Publishers will remain but they'll be smaller and able to demonstrate their value. The biggest threat to authors is the same as it is today. Too many authors chasing too few readers.

06-10-2010, 11:49 PM	#5
BVLarson Author Posts: 123 Karma: 900 Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: California Device: Kindle	After reading your blog, I have to say I agree with what you are saying about e-rights too, Scott. The publishers are sewing up authors. But as the cashflow shifts by the billions away from them to places like Amazon, Apple, Google and worst of all, Authors of new books, they will shrink.

06-13-2010, 08:28 AM	#7
Robin O'Neill Connoisseur Posts: 53 Karma: 60900 Join Date: May 2010 Device: PC	The pond you would have fished in for readers if you were published mainstream may be quite different when suddenly you're looking at the entire world having easy access to your work. A small niche market suddenly becomes huge. Robin

06-13-2010, 01:23 PM	#8
sbaum4853 YA Fantasy Author Posts: 12 Karma: 52 Join Date: May 2010 Location: Albuquerque, NM Device: kindle	Great article. The upheaval has begun, but really, we're in the early stages. eBooks are still a small percentage of total sales. In two years or so, when eBooks make up 50% or more of total sales, the entire distribution chain as we know it will be toast.

06-14-2010, 05:31 PM	#12
dadioflex Dyslexic Count Posts: 526 Karma: 5041991 Join Date: Aug 2008 Device: Palm TX, Advent Vega, iPad, iPod Touch, Kindle	Edit. Last edited by dadioflex; 12-15-2010 at 05:22 PM.

06-14-2010, 11:09 PM	#13
P.A.Woodburn Enthusiast Posts: 30 Karma: 30000 Join Date: Jun 2010 Device: none	Movie sales I think there are at least two other indie writers who have sold movie rights unfortunately I am new to all of this and don't remember their names.

06-15-2010, 06:06 AM	#14
Dr. Drib Grand Sorcerer Posts: 44,736 Karma: 55645321 Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Peru Device: Kindle: Oasis 3, Voyage WiFi; Kobo: Libra 2, Aura One	...and not as smart as people would like. Don

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