CNN interview: Physical books gone in 5 years

[ChrisChillin]

Here is a link to a recent CNN interview with Nicholas Negroponte, founder of One Laptop per Child. An interesting claim that's given at the outset and put in the article title - and one I don't agree with at all - although I'm quite sure he's being hyperbolic for effect:

Click

[Lady Fitzgerald]

It's going to happen but in five years? Methinks not, at least not until e-books have device and copy restrictions lifted and a single standard gets settled on.

[eGeezer]

I think equating ebooks to cell phones is a bit of a stretch. Cell phones grew more rapidly in un-developed countries because there was not reliable (or any whatsoever) telecommunications infrastructure and communication is what people do.

Communication is interaction with others, and the human animal is social, no matter how anti-social our actions may appear. Reading is going off by yourself and shutting every(thing)one out for a while. Reading is something you HAVE to do for school, but not something that will drive the major portion of the younger populous to spend $200 for a device with which to engage in a solitary activity. (And I may be wrong, but I believe the cell phone growth in all countries was initially driven by the young adult, then by the teens and below before it really took off with older adults.)

I agree with those many others who have stated it often on this forum. I don't believe pbooks are significantly threatened by ebooks for at least 10 years, I don't believe publication of new pbooks will disappear completely within my lifetime (of course, I'm 64, so I can safely say that, lol), although maybe in 15 years, demand might be noticeably diminished.

There is no doubt that pbooks will eventually disappear, because we have already seen that in the near future, Capt Kirk lives in a truly paperless environment.

[speakingtohe]

Interesting article.
Sending laptops to villages without electricity has me a bit stymied (first part of interview) maybe solar powered?
Also the part about 100 books on each laptop adding up to 10,000 books? Why not just put the whole 10,000 on each laptop.
And assuming that these villages have their own dialects/language issues are there10,000 useful books for them or is this some self serving scam. for example to use a laptop/computer it helps if one can read.

While I agree with the concept, I see laptops piling up or being sold on the black market while whatever device is used to power them in a village without electricity is being used to cook or watch TV

[brecklundin]

Kinda sad but I bet snail-mail junk dead tree mail out lives dtb's.

[brecklundin]

Originally Posted by eGeezer

I think equating ebooks to cell phones is a bit of a stretch. Cell phones grew more rapidly in un-developed countries because there was not reliable (or any whatsoever) telecommunications infrastructure and communication is what people do.

Communication is interaction with others, and the human animal is social, no matter how anti-social our actions may appear. Reading is going off by yourself and shutting every(thing)one out for a while. Reading is something you HAVE to do for school, but not something that will drive the major portion of the younger populous to spend $200 for a device with which to engage in a solitary activity. (And I may be wrong, but I believe the cell phone growth in all countries was initially driven by the young adult, then by the teens and below before it really took off with older adults.)

I agree with those many others who have stated it often on this forum. I don't believe pbooks are significantly threatened by ebooks for at least 10 years, I don't believe publication of new pbooks will disappear completely within my lifetime (of course, I'm 64, so I can safely say that, lol), although maybe in 15 years, demand might be noticeably diminished.

There is no doubt that pbooks will eventually disappear, because we have already seen that in the near future, Capt Kirk lives in a truly paperless environment.

You are probably correct about today's schools. But for me when I was that age I easily spend several hundred bucks a year on paperbacks and I bought used at yard sales, thrift shops and what not...never new because I could buy 10-for-1 back then. I read anything and everything I could. And I still studied, played baseball, football, golf, backpacking, fishing as well as the normal teen and kid stuff...just seems there were more hours in a day back then I suppose. Plus things outside were, well, just more for the fun of it rather than the "go to war" everything must be labeled today.

Even today I simply never bonded with video games of any sort...not when I could buy a few boxes of books instead for the cost of a single video game that would bore me no end in short order.

[carld]

Originally Posted by speakingtohe

Interesting article.
Sending laptops to villages without electricity has me a bit stymied (first part of interview) maybe solar powered?

The XO (OLPC's system) was originally supposed to have a crank attached to the case to power an internal generator. This wasn't found to be rugged enough, and they switched to a foot petal. At least that's what I remember. Looking through the specs on their website I don't see any mention of an external power generator. So, I'm not sure what they're supposed to do with it after the battery runs down.

[JeremyR]

I don't think so.

Maybe tablets with a touch screen and whatnot are someday the future. But something like the regular kindle is only really good for reading something forward, like a novel. Constantly having to look stuff up (like formulas in a text book or such) seems like it would be a nightmare on an e-reader.

[paaThaka]

Negroponte hasn't been in the news for a while, so he had to (again) cook up something a little bit outlandish

Maybe mostly gone in 50years.

Somebody should send Negroponte a recent release vinyl or a cd - just as a reminder that things have a tendency to stick around for longer than home-grown futurists imagine.

[eGeezer]

Originally Posted by brecklundin

You are probably correct about today's schools. But for me when I was that age I easily spend several hundred bucks a year on paperbacks and I bought used at yard sales, thrift shops and what not... (etc etc)

Yes, you are right. My view was narrow, say since PC appeared in the early 80's. But then again, that is what we have to build on. Also, your willingness (and mine, as well) to move to an ereader is based on a previous book habit build in earlier years. While my son was never a veracious reader in his youth, now that he is in his mid-20's (lol, yes, some consider this to still be "youth") he reads a lot of non-fiction. It will take a while before he moves to an ebook, if ever, because his books are not readily e-available.

It may be that it is not dedicated ereaders alone will threaten the pbook species with extinction. It may well be that the multi-use tablets will function better for many. It certainly does for my wife, because a typically heavy reading year for her is 4 books, although she reads several p-magazines and we refuse to give up our daily p-newspaper until it is no longer available.

But I digress. Your point is a good one in that in 3rd-world (perhaps "4th-world" in some cases), reading may be as it was with you (us) in your youth (and Abraham Lincoln's, if the tales are true, although neither of is that old, yet) -- something to treasure, with the procurement of a tattered, well-read book the highlight of the week or month.

But in that environment, I don't see ebooks replacing them any time soon. In the electronic cultures that apparently embraced cellphones quicker than us laggards in the US, I still stick to the view that perhaps the combination of ereaders and tablets will increase the threat to pbooks significantly, but not to extinction any time soon.

I do, however, agree with Speakingtohe, that even with build-in generators, they may find themselves on the black market or the local dump (or leveling tables like an old phone book) more often than for their intended use. And, as he sez, batteries don't last forever and it is a long way to their local Walmart to replace it. Of course, in 5 years, maybe not. LOL.

[JoelArnold]

I can see this happening to novels (although maybe not that fast) but I can't imagine something like a coffee table book being transferable to an ereader. That's something that is sort of tactile - and I like to just flip back and forth through the pages, etc.

[speakingtohe]

Device: iPhone Kindle app I can see this happening to novels (although maybe not that fast) but I can't imagine something like a coffee table book being transferable to an ereader. That's something that is sort of tactile - and I like to just flip back and forth through the pages, etc.

Ahh has nobody invented the virtual coffee table book yet? Perhaps it is an Ipad combined with a photo frame.

[kevinp]

Back in the '70s we were promised flying cars by year 2000. As soon as I get my flying car, I'll believe paper books are on their way out.

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by speakingtohe

Ahh has nobody invented the virtual coffee table book yet? Perhaps it is an Ipad combined with a photo frame.

My TV works well for that. All I need to do, since it's patched into my computer, is run a slideshow when I'm not watching a show, a movie, or reading a book. So it's not on the coffee table; think outside the box.

[Rhynedahll]

I don't think so.

Paper books are a staple of human existence. I have many more than a thousand of my own and paper books will always be my prefered choice.

However, I do agree, in this electronic age in which we now live, that electronic books and text of all kinds will continue to gain market share.