E Ink forecasts loss as ebook device demand falls

[ebusinesstutor]

Originally Posted by QuantumIguana

The problem with the PDA analogy is that PDAs didn't have any advantages over smart phones, thus when you could have both functions in one device, the PDA no longer made sense. It's fine to say that the advantages of e-ink aren't important to people like you, but you should remember that not everyone is like you.

LCD has a long way to go to match the readability of e-ink, and even farther to go to match the battery life if e-ink. If batteries were improved to increase the battery life of an LCD tablet, new e-ink readers would also have these improved batteries. So perhaps you could improve the battery life of LCD tablets to a couple days, but that same improvement would add weeks to the battery life of an e-ink reader.

The new better screens are closing the gap. I find my Samsung Galaxy Note screen easier to read than my previous tablets/phones and there have been two more generations of Notes since.

Battery life is an issue, but part of this is also because you are using it for so many things. When you play movies, listen to audio and use it as a phone.

My smart phone is on the charger whenever I am not using it and I never really have a problem with running out of power. So, for me, the battery life issue is negligible.

For me, I just can't see carrying a second device for reading. And yes, we do have an e-ink reader in the household that I have read on but it isn't being used right now.

Of course, everyone isn't me, but I think the e-ink sales loss numbers shows that more people are moving my way than towards the dedicated e-ink reader path.

[SteveEisenberg]

Originally Posted by Canuck_in_Japan

Smartphones were essentially better PDAs with no downsides at all.

Palm Z22 Review, October 18, 2005:

We've been using the Z22 for about four days on a single charge, and the battery indicator says we still have about one-quarter of the charge left.

The color device described above has a internal battery charged in the same manner as today's cell phones.

Older monochrome Palm devices required two AAA batteries which lasted about a month. I used rechargeables.

My wife is so far uninterested in a smart phone, and so has both a Kindle Keyboard and a simple non-smart Net10 LG phone which needs to be recharged once a week. I only have a smartphone because it is employer-supplied. I don't mind having to recharge nightly, but even in battery save mode the BlackBerry can run out of juice too early in the evening. (And I do not play videos on it, or listen to music.)

My experience is that new gadget generations go two steps forward and one step back. And it is also my experience to need the step taken away more than those added.

[speakingtohe]

Originally Posted by ebusinesstutor

The new better screens are closing the gap. I find my Samsung Galaxy Note screen easier to read than my previous tablets/phones and there have been two more generations of Notes since.

Battery life is an issue, but part of this is also because you are using it for so many things. When you play movies, listen to audio and use it as a phone.

My smart phone is on the charger whenever I am not using it and I never really have a problem with running out of power. So, for me, the battery life issue is negligible.

For me, I just can't see carrying a second device for reading. And yes, we do have an e-ink reader in the household that I have read on but it isn't being used right now.

Of course, everyone isn't me, but I think the e-ink sales loss numbers shows that more people are moving my way than towards the dedicated e-ink reader path.

I missed the EINK loss numbers. Are you saying they are losing money? I thought that growth had just slowed?

Helen

[j.p.s]

Originally Posted by SteveEisenberg

My experience is that new gadget generations go two steps forward and one step back. And it is also my experience to need the step taken away more than those added.

I agree, and for me, it was worse with linux PDA -> Nokia internet tablet -> linux phone than most other gadgets.

[j.p.s]

Originally Posted by speakingtohe

I missed the EINK loss numbers. Are you saying they are losing money? I thought that growth had just slowed?

Helen

Companies that make expansion spending and pricing decisions based on over optimistic growth projections can easily lose money when growth slows.

Also, Vlasic lost big bucks in the face of increasing growth because of pricing demands made by Walmart. It has been speculated in this thread that Amazon may be doing something similar.

[SteveEisenberg]

Originally Posted by speakingtohe

I missed the EINK loss numbers. Are you saying they are losing money? I thought that growth had just slowed?

I doubt there is any newer information on this than in the March 29 Taipei Times article linked in the OP. Management is predicting a "strong likelihood" of a loss for the first half of 2014, but they aren't saying how much. And they are saying revenue has declined between five and ten percent.

The company does have some, apparently smaller, revenue streams beyond the familiar monochrome displays:

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201404020011.aspx

So we can't say for sure whether the number of eInk eReader shipped is actually in decline.

[speakingtohe]

Originally Posted by j.p.s

Companies that make expansion spending and pricing decisions based on over optimistic growth projections can easily lose money when growth slows.

Also, Vlasic lost big bucks in the face of increasing growth because of pricing demands made by Walmart. It has been speculated in this thread that Amazon may be doing something similar.

True enough. I just am missing the facts and figures in this particular case. Perhaps you can point them out?

Helen

[speakingtohe]

Originally Posted by SteveEisenberg

I doubt there is any newer information on this than in the March 29 Taipei Times article linked in the OP. Management is predicting a "strong likelihood" of a loss for the first half of 2014, but they aren't saying how much. And they are saying revenue has declined between five and ten percent.

The company does have some, apparently smaller, revenue streams beyond the familiar monochrome displays:

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201404020011.aspx

So we can't say for sure whether the number of eInk eReader shipped is actually in decline.

My impression is that there is still an increase, although a much smaller one than in previous years. I could certainly be wrong on that although the link you supplied seems to me to imply additional markets even if in a different area?

Time will tell I guess and has been pointed out by j.p.s. it can happen. I just don't think it has happened yet.

Helen

[OtterBooks]

a possible angle here is that the original article in thread subject should probably read "as demand fills." Given the nature of the technology(longevity, limited need to keep up with other tech/advancing content), consumer attitude towards eink readers may be more similar to an appliance than a mobile device.

[QuantumIguana]

Originally Posted by ebusinesstutor

The new better screens are closing the gap. I find my Samsung Galaxy Note screen easier to read than my previous tablets/phones and there have been two more generations of Notes since.

Battery life is an issue, but part of this is also because you are using it for so many things. When you play movies, listen to audio and use it as a phone.

My smart phone is on the charger whenever I am not using it and I never really have a problem with running out of power. So, for me, the battery life issue is negligible.

For me, I just can't see carrying a second device for reading. And yes, we do have an e-ink reader in the household that I have read on but it isn't being used right now.

Of course, everyone isn't me, but I think the e-ink sales loss numbers shows that more people are moving my way than towards the dedicated e-ink reader path.

It's an awfully big gap to cross. The battery life isn't a issue for you, but that doesn't mean it isn't an issue for others. It may be that more people want tablets than dedicated e-readers, but so what? That doesn't demonstrate that the market for dedicated e-readers is so small that it will go away. You cannot assume that if e-ink sales are decreasing that this decrease will inevitably continue.

[OtterBooks]

some figures concerning ebook sales made for/read-on eink devices would be revealing, here. without them, we can't tell if demand is affected by competition from other device categories, or if slowing sales are because the market is becoming more saturated, and most people just buy eink readers once and replace them rarely, generally when they break or are damaged. which after about four seconds of critical thinking is obviously more likely.

[JAcheson]

Originally Posted by ebusinesstutor

PDAs were hot sellers for many years, but eventually smart phones took over their functions and people didn't want to carry two devices when one could do.

The last time PDA's outsold smartphones in North America was 2006. 5 years later you couldn't buy a new PDA.

PDAs disappeared because Palm made the completely arbitrary decision to stop making them in favor of smartphones. Then smartphones didn't work out for them either, and they didn't have their PDA business to fall back on.

Meanwhile Apple has done just fine selling the iPod Touch, which is essentially a PDA with media features.

Frankly, I would love to buy a modern PalmOS device. Something with an E-Ink screen, that could run the useful PDA apps and last for weeks on end. Throw a solar cell on it and you could probably run it indefinitely.

[ebusinesstutor]

Originally Posted by JAcheson

PDAs disappeared because Palm made the completely arbitrary decision to stop making them in favor of smartphones. Then smartphones didn't work out for them either, and they didn't have their PDA business to fall back on.

Meanwhile Apple has done just fine selling the iPod Touch, which is essentially a PDA with media features.

Frankly, I would love to buy a modern PalmOS device. Something with an E-Ink screen, that could run the useful PDA apps and last for weeks on end. Throw a solar cell on it and you could probably run it indefinitely.

Palm wasn't the only PDA maker at the time, so if people still wanted them, they would still be available.

Yes, the iPod is essential a Music Player/PDA/Game device - an iPhone without the phone part.

You say you would want a PalmOS device. But would you really carry it when your phone does the same functions?

I remember at one point, some people had a cell phone, pager and a PDA on their belts. Well on our way to Batman utility belts. Now most people don't even have a clip on their smart phone. Men usually just put them in their pockets.

[John F]

Originally Posted by ebusinesstutor

...

Yes, the iPod is essential a Music Player/PDA/Game device - an iPhone without the phone part.

...

The iPod is also missing GPS?

[eschwartz]

Originally Posted by John F

The iPod is also missing GPS?

"phone parts"