Ebooks: Scarcity, abundance and economy

[JD Gumby]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

And if solar power becomes that economical, why wouldn't you have large centrally-generated solar installations? And it seems very likely that one large solar array would be more efficient than 100 little domestic sized ones.

Not really. At least not the way it would happen in real life. "It's expensive to set up, so your bills are going to have to go up." "It's very expensive to maintain, so your bills will have to go up again this year." "We can only pump out a finite amount of electricity this way, so we have to keep prices high to encourage people to use less so that there's enough for everyone." ...and so on. ie, the exact same excuses that are used now.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

And if solar power becomes that economical, why wouldn't you have large centrally-generated solar installations? And it seems very likely that one large solar array would be more efficient than 100 little domestic sized ones.

Probably not. What you gain from economy of scale in purchasing, you lose with transmission and land costs. You have to put the panels somewhere. For home use, you use your roof, which is waste space - and nobody is going to sue over a flat-footed turkey lizard habitat...

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Probably not. What you gain from economy of scale in purchasing, you lose with transmission and land costs. You have to put the panels somewhere. For home use, you use your roof, which is waste space - and nobody is going to sue over a flat-footed turkey lizard habitat...

Centralized facilities can get a lot of savings in the *storage* side of the system because they can afford more sophisticated *shared* storage mechanisms that don't scale well down to single family installations.
Alternative energy systems are also *intermitent* generation systems and are only viable today to the extent that the centralized utilities serve as a storage and backup system.
In my region, the local utility is compelled by law to buy any excess solar and windpower from residential installations at *retail* prices. It makes solar more attractive than if the homeowner had to install a bank of batteries to hold unused daylight power for nighttime use. This poses no problem to the utilities because the adoption of home energy systems is miniscule, but will be unsustainable once adoption rates become significant.
Rest assured there will be changes as adoption increases and the changes will not necessarily favor increased adoption of distributed energy systems.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Okay, so we're a bit ...

OTOH, I'm enjoying the solar discussion. A local company in my area (Montgomery county Md) is offering a new system where they own the solar panels on your roof... you essentially lease from them... and pay a monthly amount for the panels that is less than your monthly electric bill, and never changes. Some circles think it is the solar infrastructure system of the future.

I agree that decentralized power is better, though I often faccilate between connection to a grid or your own storage system.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Okay, so we're a bit ...

OTOH, I'm enjoying the solar discussion. A local company in my area (Montgomery county Md) is offering a new system where they own the solar panels on your roof... you essentially lease from them... and pay a monthly amount for the panels that is less than your monthly electric bill, and never changes. Some circles think it is the solar infrastructure system of the future.

I agree that decentralized power is better, though I often vaccilate between connection to a grid or your own storage system.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by Steven Lyle Jordan

Okay, so we're a bit ...

OTOH, I'm enjoying the solar discussion. A local company in my area (Montgomery county Md) is offering a new system where they own the solar panels on your roof... you essentially lease from them... and pay a monthly amount for the panels that is less than your monthly electric bill, and never changes. Some circles think it is the solar infrastructure system of the future.

I agree that decentralized power is better, though I often vaccilate between connection to a grid or your own storage system.

Sorry Steve, I didn't mean to hi-jack the thread, honest. Back to the regularly scheduled thread....

[fjtorres]

Okay, I'll get back on topic...

Okay, I'll get back on topic...


Over at The Digital Reader:
http://www.the-digital-reader.com/20...as-loans-drop/

That report got me thinking that in an economy of abundance, the ready availability of free promos, free PD titles, and quality low-cost titles might not only devalue hardcover and "bestseller" titles (the BPHs nightmare) but also devalue the "value" of "free!".

I'm thinking that people with Kindles (or Nooks or Kobos or whatever) full of quality reads are not going to stapede at the mere mention of a free title and can afford to be selective in what they spend their reading time. *And* might be just as willing to pick up a reasonably-priced paid title as a free one.

If that psychology prevails, pricing is only an issue at the high end and there might be no long-term advantage to creative pricing schemes. It may even be that $0.99 might *not* be the sweet spot to maximize ebook sales volume.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Okay, I'll get back on topic...

Okay, I'll get back on topic...


Over at The Digital Reader:
http://www.the-digital-reader.com/20...as-loans-drop/

That report got me thinking that in an economy of abundance, the ready availability of free promos, free PD titles, and quality low-cost titles might not only devalue hardcover and "bestseller" titles (the BPHs nightmare) but also devalue the "value" of "free!".

I'm thinking that people with Kindles (or Nooks or Kobos or whatever) full of quality reads are not going to stapede at the mere mention of a free title and can afford to be selective in what they spend their reading time. *And* might be just as willing to pick up a reasonably-priced paid title as a free one.

If that psychology prevails, pricing is only an issue at the high end and there might be no long-term advantage to creative pricing schemes. It may even be that $0.99 might *not* be the sweet spot to maximize ebook sales volume.

That's the reality. Like the jet fighter pilots over North Vietnam, they're flipping off the switches. (See my monograph And The World Changed here on MR).

There's too much entertainment to be enjoyed. Some people sort by price, some by recommendation, some by previous experience with the author. Some even dial at random...

This hammers new creators. One can now spend a lifetime reading old free authors (Project Gutenberg, et al) and new free books (giveaways) and never spend a dime for reading material. (I'm not talking piracy, legal giveaways -remember the TOR.com giveaways of 20 free S/F novels?)

In the digital world of abundance, nothing ever goes away...

[latepaul]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

I'm thinking that people with Kindles (or Nooks or Kobos or whatever) full of quality reads are not going to stapede at the mere mention of a free title and can afford to be selective in what they spend their reading time. *And* might be just as willing to pick up a reasonably-priced paid title as a free one.

This is where I've come to a while ago. My TBR list is years long so anything new I buy (or get for free) has to be really worth reading, or at least have as good a chance of being so as I can predict ahead of reading it. Otherwise I'm just hoarding files that I'll have to sift through at some point anyway. It's nice knowing that if something's on my harddrive/ereader it's already been through the first pass of filtering.

If that psychology prevails, pricing is only an issue at the high end and there might be no long-term advantage to creative pricing schemes. It may even be that $0.99 might *not* be the sweet spot to maximize ebook sales volume.

Again true for me. Within reason price won't deter me if I think a book's likely to be a good read, which means if you've priced your book at $0.99 and I buy it you've probably done yourself out of at least a couple of extra dollars you could have had from me. Of course I've no idea how typical I am.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by latepaul

Again true for me. Within reason price won't deter me if I think a book's likely to be a good read, which means if you've priced your book at $0.99 and I buy it you've probably done yourself out of at least a couple of extra dollars you could have had from me. Of course I've no idea how typical I am.

A minor clarification:
I'm not talking about pricing a book at $0.99 as a promotional/visibility enhancement mechhanism. But more along the line of list-pricing it straight to $0.99. And I'm talking novels and equivalent; not novelas or short-story "ebooks".

With that caveat, one would *hope* that you are typical of the heavy reader breed.

It would lead to a more rational ebook marketplace where quality writers with a decent backlist have a hope of earning a decent living. I do think that having a strong, deep backlist is going to be key, though. (Which, alas does not bode well for the Sterling Lanier's of the world.)

[Penforhire]

And while I'm still OT, lol, Ralph thanks for saying how you were defining cost (installed watt). The inverter is so-far unreliable and expensive to replace. I'm hearing numbers like 8 to 10 year life spans.

On centralized solar, that approach lets non-photovoltaics, um... shine. A field of mirrors to heat a central tower and the 'long-trough' equivalent have proven to be fairly efficient and capable of real community power-station output.

On the "green" side of things, most of the public doesn't account for the energy and environmental impact of manufacturing typical PV cells. Tarnishes the green a bit.

[MrsJoseph]

Originally Posted by Barty

Talent is still scarce. The authors that I love aren't really interchangeable or replaceable.

It's why I can ever get on any "boycott [insert publisher here]" train. What if they publish someone I really like?

I don't think I've boycotted any publisher entirely. But I have boycotted their first sales. I don't buy ebooks priced at A6...but I gotta get my fix so I go used DTB. Not quite the same thing but...

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Okay, I'll get back on topic...

Okay, I'll get back on topic...


Over at The Digital Reader:
http://www.the-digital-reader.com/20...as-loans-drop/

That report got me thinking that in an economy of abundance, the ready availability of free promos, free PD titles, and quality low-cost titles might not only devalue hardcover and "bestseller" titles (the BPHs nightmare) but also devalue the "value" of "free!".

I'm thinking that people with Kindles (or Nooks or Kobos or whatever) full of quality reads are not going to stapede at the mere mention of a free title and can afford to be selective in what they spend their reading time. *And* might be just as willing to pick up a reasonably-priced paid title as a free one.

If that psychology prevails, pricing is only an issue at the high end and there might be no long-term advantage to creative pricing schemes. It may even be that $0.99 might *not* be the sweet spot to maximize ebook sales volume.

I think that with the prevalence of so many authors (and newbies at that) writing serials...pricing the 1st book at $0.99 is a pretty good idea. I bought an entire series I was only vaguely interested in because the author had the first book priced so well. Typically, I wouldn't buy a 1st in a series book from an unknown author until the entire series was complete AND there were great reviews.

But with that being said. I don't go running for every free book I can find. I only have but so much time and my TBR is...a mountain. I dismiss free books all the time.


Elfwreck mentioned something earlier that I totally agreed with. When you read the sheer quantity of books I do, they are commodities. If I can't read the latest Mercedes Lackey...I can just go digging in my TBR and come up with a new book. I have no problem waiting for the prices to drop or a new release to come out. Speaking of M. Lackey...I've been disappointed in her newest Valdemar series so I decided that I'm only buying the used Hardcover. It's down to under $6 (+s&h) and Amazon right now. Or just under $10 if I buy with Amazon fulfillment (Prime member). Every now and again I check to see if the price is low enough (I want to pay under $8 with s&h but Lackey is always popular. I should have snatched up the $3.99 copy I saw but I was slow.)

In the meantime I have 178 books in my "TBR - owned" pile. That's more than a year's worth of reading if I pace myself.

[Harmon]

Originally Posted by Steven Lyle Jordan

As a matter of fact... I'd been thinking the same thing, and planning to begin converting some of my novels to movie scripts, to see if any of them had legs.

I have one word for you: Videogames.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Harmon

I have one word for you: Videogames.

That might be more viable than screenplays.
But you might find yourself facing an internet petition/movement to have the software developer change your oh-so-artistic ending.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Harmon

I have one word for you: Videogames.

I have one word for you: Nope.

(You obviously haven't read my novels. They aren't video game material.)

(Okay, that was twelve words.)