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Old 01-07-2011, 12:33 PM   #16
Maggie Leung
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Unfortunately, the ongoing trends are in support of multi-purpose devices. Take the example of the iPod and iPhone. iPod sales have plateaued or are dropping (depending on which iPod we are talking of) while iPhone sales continue to rise. People did not want to carry an mp3 player AND the phone. Increasingly, people do not want to carry a portable game console AND a phone. And IMHO people do not/would not want to carry an eReader AND a tablet.

Till now, they have been forced to do this because the iPad was the only tablet selling in volume till some time back and it is unwieldy for many and because most tablets have the 3 issues I mentioned in the first post. Provided, tablet makers can solve those issues, eReader sales would fall in favor of tablets.
Trends always leave room for niche markets. Niches are served if companies can make enough. The niche e-reader equation is murky longer term, because variables are in great flux right now.

Amazon probably has a better grasp on today's market than others, because it's seeing hardware and book-sale results unfiltered by others. Even Amazon doesn't know reader preferences longer term, though, because tablet technology hasn't stabilized.
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Old 01-07-2011, 12:38 PM   #17
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I predict that there is a sufficiently large market for cheap (50$ or below), robust (unbreakable), semi-rugged (think water- and sandproof) dedicated reading devices, using e-ink or a similar technology, providing high contrast and great battery life. Black and white for now, color eventually.

Will there be tablets as well? Of course. Will Kindle run on those? Obviously. These markets are not exclusive.
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Old 01-07-2011, 12:39 PM   #18
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Well, I chose the iPod/iPhone example so we could have a more Apples to Apples comparison (pun intended). BTW, Apple has done new things with the iPod most of which you can see in the form of iPod Touch. The Touch IIRC is the only growing category of iPods and it is not hard to see why - it is essentially the iPhone minus the phone. Finally, I believe the entire PMP market is experiencing lower sales growth not just Apple.
You know, that example can just as easily be used for my argument as well. :P Do you accept the premise that a newer, more innovative version of a tech product will sell more than an older version? Then it is not surprising that the iPod Touch will sell more than older versions of the iPod. The fact that it is growing sales *in spite of* the iPhone which has added phone functionality actually supports the idea that there is a sizeable market which *isn't* looking for convergence. btw, the idea that there will be one device to do it all has been around a long time - I remember reading about it a decade or so ago.
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Old 01-07-2011, 12:43 PM   #19
Maggie Leung
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You know, that example can just as easily be used for my argument as well. :P Do you accept the premise that a newer, more innovative version of a tech product will sell more than an older version? Then it is not surprising that the iPod Touch will sell more than older versions of the iPod. The fact that it is growing sales *in spite of* the iPhone which has added phone functionality actually supports the idea that there is a sizeable market which *isn't* looking for convergence. btw, the idea that there will be one device to do it all has been around a long time - I remember reading about it a decade or so ago.
I think Touch is popular partly because smart phone monthly subscriptions are much more expensive than regular cell phone rates. Some people want convergence, but they can't afford 70 bucks a month.
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Old 01-07-2011, 12:48 PM   #20
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I think Touch is popular partly because smart phone monthly subscriptions are much more expensive than regular cell phone rates. Some people want convergence, but they can't afford 70 bucks a month.
Yup! Also, in the US the iPhone is tied to AT&T which not everyone is happy with. Those who wanted the iPhone functionality but not the AT&T network bought the Touch.
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Old 01-07-2011, 01:27 PM   #21
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Well, my optimism is based on the fact that they finally tied up with manufacturers in China sometime back so that's a step ahead of vaporware.
Yeah, this is the same "Real Soon Now" line we've been hearing for close to a year.

Unfortunately, and especially for smaller companies, showing stuff at CES means jack.

http://ces.cnet.com/8301-31045_1-10428337-269.html
http://www.tgdaily.com/consumer-elec...e-reader-queue

Wake me up when you can actually buy an eReader with a Pixel Qi screen that weighs the same or less than an iPad.
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Old 01-07-2011, 07:22 PM   #22
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I think that a certain amount of skepticism is warranted given how long we've been hearing about this. I haven't seen one in person, so I'm not sure how it will compare to my e-ink screen. But I'm also concerned about cost, weight, and battery life.

I mean, yeah, I charge my phone everyday - but the fact that I manage to do that doesn't mean I want to charge more and more things every day.
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Old 01-09-2011, 04:25 PM   #23
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I have a tablet with two reader applications. My sister has a reader and I was thinking on getting one when I received the tablet as a present. I have to say I really like it. I travel a lot because of my job and it is comfortable and can be used for many things.
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Old 01-09-2011, 04:31 PM   #24
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Since the iphone costs a lot more than the competition in cell phones, the iphone needs to warrant the extra dollars that you pay for it. The competition being other smart phones such as blackberries. What does the iphone have that warrants its high price?
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Old 01-09-2011, 04:42 PM   #25
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A not-slightly-yet-not-hugely better build quality, a more developed App Store (i.e more potential functions can be added in the form of apps), a strong brand value and... the initiative.
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Old 01-09-2011, 05:13 PM   #26
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Since the iphone costs a lot more than the competition in cell phones, the iphone needs to warrant the extra dollars that you pay for it. The competition being other smart phones such as blackberries. What does the iphone have that warrants its high price?
An Apple logo.

There's no point looking for sense in buying an apple product. Apple fans will buy anything that is Apple because it's fashion, not because it's practical.

However, because of that, Apple is in a unique position to move technology forward. They release a product for a market that doesn't exist and so many people go and buy it that a market springs up almost immediately.

And of course, someone is going to say "Hey, we can read books on this!" and off that market moves.

David.
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Old 01-09-2011, 07:02 PM   #27
Maggie Leung
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Since the iphone costs a lot more than the competition in cell phones, the iphone needs to warrant the extra dollars that you pay for it. The competition being other smart phones such as blackberries. What does the iphone have that warrants its high price?
Can't speak for others, but I tend to stick with tech I've had good experiences with. That's why I've owned a string of ThinkPads and IdeaPads. If I need something else, I read reviews and look for reliability and ease of use. So I bought my first Apple product, a video iPod, about four years ago. I found it user-friendly and reliable, so I bought several others as gifts.

My satisfaction with my iPod led me to buy an iPhone about two years ago, when I decided to get a smart phone. Used it and loved it, so I bought an iPad later. Loved it, so I bought another iPad, which I gave to someone else. It was her first Apple product. She loved it and has since bought an iPhone 4.

I also bought an iPhone 4 last year when I needed an unlocked phone overseas. A couple of weeks ago, I dropped it from about 4 feet, without a case, onto ceramic tile. Totally my fault. The screen was cracked, so I took it to an Apple store while in the U.S. I was prepared to pay for a repair, but they gave me a brand-new one for free.

As a consumer, I'm loyal only to myself. If some other company can deliver Apple-quality products and service, I'll give it due consideration. What it will take for me to switch: reliable, user-friendly hardware and a strong, reliable offering of apps. I hope the Android marketplace is headed that way. It's still too Wild West for me right now.

I'm a tech 'tard. I just want tech that works, without messing about. Price counts, but that's not my first priority.
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Old 01-09-2011, 07:35 PM   #28
Andrew H.
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Since the iphone costs a lot more than the competition in cell phones, the iphone needs to warrant the extra dollars that you pay for it. The competition being other smart phones such as blackberries. What does the iphone have that warrants its high price?
But the iPhone doesn't really cost more than its smartphone competition (which are various Droids and Samsungs, not Blackberries). For that matter, you can buy a 3GS for $49.

For that matter, the real cost of all of these phones is the plan, which is also fairly similar across companies.
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Old 01-10-2011, 12:37 AM   #29
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I still like e-ink, but if something came out with the same contrast and no glare like e-ink with reliable battery life, and more computer functions I would buy it too
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Old 01-10-2011, 01:11 AM   #30
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Personally, I don't want an all-in-one type of device. I like a dedicated reader as it gets me away from being connected (mine obviously has no wifi). I want to focus on the story the author is telling and not be distracted by the constant tweets, facebook updates, incoming emails, RSS feeds, and all of the other distractions being connected brings.

I absolutely love my Sony 650, it is just perfect for me. I can hold it in one hand, turning the page with a flick of the thumb of the hand i'm holding it with, leaving my other hand free to pet and cuddle the dogs, stir / drink my coffee, adjust the blankets, and anything else. A device that was thicker or heavier just wouldn't allow this range of function.
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