Six Factors To Multiply E-Books This Year?

[NatCh]

Mike Elgan's Six Trends That Will Make E-Books "Take Off" This Year

Over at Computer World, technology Blogger Mike Elgan has an interesting look at six factors he believes are currently interacting to push us to a cusp point into the world of e-reading.

A lot of it is topics and ideas we've discussed here before, often in great detail, but it's interesting to see his take on how he sees them interacting and why he believes the e-moment is at hand.

Here's his list:

1. The economy: leaner times have folks looking for cheaper entertainment, and Kindle book savings pay for Kindles relatively quickly
2. The environment: primarily doing away with all that paper for daily news consumption
3. A publishing revolution: people starting to self-publish, freelance editing, and the fact that the publishing industry hasn't really changed all that much for ... well, a really long time
4. The rise in aggressive e-book marketing: the publishing industry as being up for grabs to the ones who pursue e-books most aggressively
5. A rise in books written for electronic reading: the nature of the electronic medium will affect the very nature of "books" themselves
6. The decline of the newspaper industry: "The old method of physically delivering blog entries on dead tree pulp is obsolete" -- papers that fail embrace the electronic will simply fade out

It's interesting that the emergence of truly workable tech for e-reading isn't on his list, and equally interesting that the economy is.

His conclusion:

After decades of false starts, the e-book revolution is finally upon us. By this time next year, e-books will be totally mainstream.

You can read the whole thing here.

Personally, I think he makes a decent case, but decent cases have been made for this before. What do you think?

[rlynnt]

I'm surprised there's no mention of copyright there. I thought that was the major hangup for this issue more than anything else. Have they solved that when I wasn't looking? I know that there are a great many more works available now than there have ever been, but there are still some best selling authors who refuse to make their work available electronically.

The Holy Grail would be for each of us to be able to have one copy of a file that could be Moved an infinite number of times, and used on an infinite number of devices, but never copied. Ideally, it could be lent to others, as well...as long as there always remained one copy of the file. But is it possible to e-mail someone a copy while retaining the existence on only one copy?

I've been waiting for all of these things to be resolved before buying too many e-books, certainly before buying a device which ONLY reads e-books. I'm glad that the technology has improved for reading them. But I don't want another electronic device. I want FEWER electronic devices. I would be perfectly happy reading on lightweight Tablet PCs, the new superlight netbooks or even phones with decent sized screens like the ATT Tilt. But I lost all of my Adobe books when my last computer crashed because I wasn't able to move them.

So I'm still waiting. But I haven't really checked into the situation lately, so I'll just start subscribing to MobileRead's RSS feed to keep me up to date from now on.

[Andybaby]

I think #1 is completly bogus, with a lessening economy the people spend less on luxaries, and multi hundred dollar readers arent exactly gonna fall into peoples hands

in 2 years though once hardware is cheaper... it will be. it has to be. that is when ebooks will truly catch on.

this is not the year anymore than last year was.

its growing. thats for sure.. it hasnt reached the IPOD effect yet though.

[mjh215]

I think there has been an article along these lines every week for the past 25 years. Unfortunately everyone forgets that when they finally get one right and are heralded as prophets.

"Print is dead." - Dr. Egon Spengler (1984)

-MJ

[ProDigit]

One of the reasons less people will buy ebook readers is they are too busy!
Besides,most young kids don't wanna go to school,and are uneducated.
The old are educated,and when they retire might buy an ebook reader, but who says they will spend their time learning a tech gadget,if 95% of their life went fine without?
some do though...
Basically the ebook reader is most attractive to the working man, who just doesn't have the time for it!

I think factors that made it attractive to me are:
1- long battery life!
2- large storagespace (for books)
3- Free ebooks and pdf!
4- small space, and light wheight, besides good looks!

The more environment friendly,I don't know what's more environment friendly,the e-ink display with Li-ion battery, or a paper book.
Anyways, also the economy plays little role here for me.
Those who are wise try to save up money, and if I really like an ebook reader,I'll buy it regardless of economic situation.

Though I have to say in times I was jobless my interest in electronic gadgets (ebooks,mini-notebooks, linux, computers,etc...) did increase!
More time available can create different hobbies for the time being...

I do agree with point 6!
It's time that all this 19th century method of tree-wasting newspapers will come to a stop.
Newspapers created are in the garbage can the very next day!
I mean,many people don't have a homephone anymore because a cell makes more sense.
I wouldn't want to go back to a phone with rotating platter (for nostalgia's sake) neither...

[pilotbob]

Originally Posted by Andybaby

I think #1 is completly bogus, with a lessening economy the people spend less on luxaries, and multi hundred dollar readers arent exactly gonna fall into peoples hands

I agree. A bad economy is going to keep people from buying reader and books. If you want to read in a bad economy you go to the local library. Or, you go to a used book store or garage sales. Most garage sales sell books for 25¢ or less. Granted, you don't have your pick of titles, you have to grab what is available.

BOb

[NatCh]

Welcome to MobileRead, rlynnt!

Originally Posted by rlynnt

I'm surprised there's no mention of copyright there. I thought that was the major hangup for this issue more than anything else. Have they solved that when I wasn't looking? I know that there are a great many more works available now than there have ever been, but there are still some best selling authors who refuse to make their work available electronically.

I think he did -- kinda-sorta -- touch on copyright in a rather oblique way when he mentioned self-publishing.

Yes a lot of established writers are very hostile to e-books, but a lot of new authors (for whom obscurity is a much greater problem than copyright violations are likely to ever be) are simply deciding that they'd rather get published and out there to begin with, than worry about how some folks will take copies of their work without paying for them.

The best-selling authors of tomorrow are obscure ones today, JK Rowling won't always be the author of the next book we all have to read (didn't she say she was done anyway?).

I think that copyright will change no matter what, even if it's simply a matter of creative commons releases becoming so ... common () that the whole question becomes largely moot.

[pilotbob]

Originally Posted by NatCh

The best-selling authors of tomorrow are obscure ones today, JK Rowling won't always be the author of the next book we all have to read (didn't she say she was done anyway?).

She never said she was done writing. She has also further stated that she may do more books based in the Harry Potter universe.

BOb

[NatCh]

Ah, thank you, pilotbob -- I hadn't been following her pronouncements lately, so I'm not surprised that I'm out of touch.

Last I heard she was saying that there wouldn't be any more Harry Potter books ... I probably over-generalized that statement.

But in any case, she'll stop writing at some point, as will all the big names, and the next set of big names may be self-publishing on their websites even as we speak ... er, type.

[vivaldirules]

Times are tough and I might lose my job. So, gee, let me go out and spend $350 (probably a fair fraction of one month's mortgage payment) on an ebook reader. Oh, yeah, I forgot. Then I need to pay for the books.

I agree with Andy and BOb. I think the man's a complete fool if he really believes his first argument.

[Alisa]

Originally Posted by pilotbob

I agree. A bad economy is going to keep people from buying reader and books. If you want to read in a bad economy you go to the local library. Or, you go to a used book store or garage sales. Most garage sales sell books for 25¢ or less. Granted, you don't have your pick of titles, you have to grab what is available.

BOb

I agree. At least Amazon's now working on selling ebooks for people's phones. That's a smart move in this economy. Very few people are going to want to spend $359 on a reading device but if they can get that new-release book for $9.99 rather than $25, that's pretty attractive. Most of us that now own e-ink devices started reading on our phones and PDAs, too. Some of the folks that start out reading on their phone will likely move to a Kindle when things pick up for them.

[Andybaby]

I read on my PSP, and then i bought the first Netbook available when it was the same price as a kindle, than 6 months of that I started developing Eye stain Issues so i made the Jump to Eink. it was either that or quit reading. and ive only just started reading seriously for the first time in my life and i didnt want to give that up.

In my Library Thing(signature), save for 2 books on that list, I read them as ebooks in the last year. I didnt count anything ive ever read before then. because mostly that was for school and i didnt like them (Ethan Frome anyone? comon...)

The Door Into Summer was my First Real book Bought for me... I dont know who bought it for me, but it is the first thing that got me into reading. and i own Enders game. which i bought after reading the Ebook Of it. because it seriously changed me.

Ebook Readers are for serious readers, but almost all who buy ebook readers become serious readers.

Also, case and point articles like this are friviolus. here is the same article posted in 2005 https://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4609

[JSWolf]

If #1 was truly accurate, then public libraries would be used instead of spending nearly $360 without the cost of the eBooks.

[Robotech_Master]

Originally Posted by Andybaby

I think #1 is completly bogus, with a lessening economy the people spend less on luxaries, and multi hundred dollar readers arent exactly gonna fall into peoples hands

I think most or all of his reasons are bogus, or at least overemphasized. The economy as you say, the environmental angle is arguable if not outright wrong, and the publishing industry is not going to magically change overnight.

I wrote up a detailed defenestration over at TeleRead, which I'll just link to instead of copying and pasting in here. But in short, it's the same old pie-in-the-sky, e-books-are-going-to-take-over-because-I-want-them-to stuff we've been seeing for the last ten years. Bah. Let's try to be a little more realistic.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by NatCh

It's interesting that the emergence of truly workable tech for e-reading isn't on his list, and equally interesting that the economy is.

Not at all, since Mike seems to think the Kindle and iPhone represent "truly workable tech" for e-books... or, at least, assumes that variations of those (like larger color tablets?) will fill in the voids for things like textbooks.

Personally, I agree that smaller devices like iPhones will become more ubiquitous e-book readers than larger dedicated readers. Unfortunately, those who agree seem to concentrate on the iPhone, to the exclusion of other platforms (there's no Stanza for my LG Dare), so even this trend could be slowed significantly by proprietarianism.

Of his conclusions, the only one I would argue is his economy point. Although he may be correct that Kindle and Kindle books will eventually save you money, most consumers aren't going to think that far ahead for something like an e-book reader (for a car, sure, but not a Kindle). So those being hurt by the economy are more likely to just buy fewer books, or keep buying print books and forego a $300+ investment in a reader. To save money, they're more likely to start reading on the cellphone they already have.