Ebook or Pbook?

[Justin Nemo]

Yes there's nothing like clarity and this is nothing like clarity.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by Justin Nemo

This post in the general forum seems to disagree with that:

https://www.mobileread.com/forums/sho...07#post2017707

Since this is speculation about the future, it is all just opinion.

But I think that ebook reading devices will improve and become cheaper over the next few years, and I expect that 50% (by volume) of the books sold (not free) in the UK will be ebooks by 2022.

We'll have to wait to see if I'm right.

[Justin Nemo]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Since this is speculation about the future, it is all just opinion.

But I think that ebook reading devices will improve and become cheaper over the next few years, and I expect that 50% (by volume) of the books sold (not free) in the UK will be ebooks by 2022.

We'll have to wait to see if I'm right.

I don't usually like to disagree with you, because mostly you don't talk rubbish. But if you think that pbooks will still be the dominant seller in 10 years time, I think you are very mistaken, sorry.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by Justin Nemo

I don't usually like to disagree with you, because mostly you don't talk rubbish. But if you think that pbooks will still be the dominant seller in 10 years time, I think you are very mistaken, sorry.

Forgive me for asking, but is English is second language? We seem to often be talking at cross purposes.

In my opinion, ebooks will be at 50% of the market at some time before 2022.

The exact phrase I initially used was "within ten years".

You queried that, referring me to a thread which, in your summary, was of the opinion it wouldn't happen for at least 20 years.

So I rather assumed that this was along the lines of your opinion too. And so I tried to clarify/emphasise my opinion by stating it in slightly more precise terms.

How you got from what I said to the idea that I "think that pbooks will still be the dominant seller in 10 years time" is a bit of a mystery to me.

However, if you want me to pin things down a bit more, I would be very surprised if the UK book market was over 50% ebook within the next five years.

Perhaps, rather than giving references to other threads and other people's opinions, it would be simpler if you just gave your own?

[Synamon]

Originally Posted by Justin Nemo

OK Deal

Hang about, that's a bit of a put down to genuine readers isn't it?

What are "genuine readers"?

[Justin Nemo]

[QUOTE=pdurrant;2018188]Forgive me for asking, but is English is second language? [QUOTE]

Is that English? If you are going to insult me, please do it in a language that I can comprehend. All I am saying is that I don't think your estimate of 10 to 20 years is a realistic one.

Synamon. Er... Let me get back to you, when I can remember what the hell we were talking about.

[Justin Nemo]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

However, if you want me to pin things down a bit more, I would be very surprised if the UK book market was over 50% ebook within the next five years.

Perhaps, rather than giving references to other threads and other people's opinions, it would be simpler if you just gave your own?

You can be so hurtful sometimes. You've now moved the goalposts from 20 years to five years.

I quoted the other post, because they are readers who are saying that they don't buy pbooks anymore and haven't done for some time. Or at least the majority of those who posted did.

[Synamon]

Originally Posted by Justin Nemo

I quoted the other post, because they are readers who are saying that they don't buy pbooks anymore and haven't done for some time. Or at least the majority of those who posted did.

This little corner of the internet is not representative of the rest of the population. Drawing conclusions from a self-selecting poll on a tiny internet forum is stupid.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by Justin Nemo

Is that English? If you are going to insult me, please do it in a language that I can comprehend.

Apologies. I didn't proof that very well, did I? It really wasn't meant as an insult, just checking.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by Justin Nemo

You can be so hurtful sometimes. You've now moved the goalposts from 20 years to five years.

I quoted the other post, because they are readers who are saying that they don't buy pbooks anymore and haven't done for some time. Or at least the majority of those who posted did.

I apologise if I've been rude or unfair. I didn't intend to be.

IMO, I haven't moved the goalposts at all.

I first mentioned 'within' 10 years for 50% and 20 years for 80%. I'm reasonably happy with those estimates. Note that these are upper bounds.

You were the one who erroneously suggested that I thought that we'd still be seeing the majority of books sales as paper books in ten years time (when my previous statements stated that I expected the majority of books sold to be ebooks no later than in ten years time).

Let me try again to state my position for you, since it seems to have become confused.

I'm talking about the UK book market. The US book market may see the change happen more quickly, other parts of the world more slowly, I can't be certain, but I'd guessing for the UK.

I'm talking about the volume of books sold, not the value of books sold. I would expect the value proportion of ebooks sold to lag the volume proportion because in general I expect paper books to be more expensive.

I expect that within ten years we'll see 50% of the books sold in the UK being ebooks.

I expect that within twenty years we'll see 80% of the books sold in the UK being ebooks.

I didn't previously give lower bounds, but I have since said that I don't expect to see the 50% mark reached within the next five years. Note that this provides a limit that my previous statement didn't have.

Summary:

I expect that in between five to ten years time, we'll see 50% of the books sold in the UK being ebooks.

I expect that in between 10 and twenty years time, we'll see 80% of the books sold in the UK being ebooks.

I'll now add an extra guess. I wouldn't expect to see more than 95% of the books in the UK sold as eBook within the next 25 years.

HTH.

[anamardoll]

Originally Posted by Justin Nemo

You can be so hurtful sometimes. You've now moved the goalposts from 20 years to five years.

I quoted the other post, because they are readers who are saying that they don't buy pbooks anymore and haven't done for some time. Or at least the majority of those who posted did.

Please keep in mind that Mobile Read is not the whole world. Most of us have legion relatives who still prefer paper to electronics.

Heck, I give my book out for free and I've still had people tell me they'd prefer to pay for a paper copy than read the free e-Book version. So it's very, very difficult to generalize from Mobile Read to the rest of the world.

I would love to see e-Books dominate the market over p-Books since it's my format of choice, but we really are just guessing. Wildly.

[gmw]

Originally Posted by anamardoll

Please keep in mind that Mobile Read is not the whole world. Most of us have legion relatives who still prefer paper to electronics. [...]

Agreed. I don't have to look very far at all. I still read more pbooks than ebooks, and any ebook I really like I start looking for to add to my pbook collection. My wife took one look at my reader, shook her head, and hasn't been near it since. If it were only up to the people that I know personally (my plife rather than my elife), then ebooks would still be a novelty item, a curiousity used only by eccentrics.

[VydorScope]

Didn't Amazon recently announce that e-books were out selling paper books in their store... or was I dreaming that?

[Justin Nemo]

Originally Posted by Synamon

This little corner of the internet is not representative of the rest of the population. Drawing conclusions from a self-selecting poll on a tiny internet forum is stupid.

Well thank you for pointing that out, I was wondering.

Commenting on posts that you haven't thoroughly read or understood is equally stupid.

[Justin Nemo]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

I apologise if I've been rude or unfair. I didn't intend to be.

IMO, I haven't moved the goalposts at all.

I first mentioned 'within' 10 years for 50% and 20 years for 80%. I'm reasonably happy with those estimates. Note that these are upper bounds.

You were the one who erroneously suggested that I thought that we'd still be seeing the majority of books sales as paper books in ten years time (when my previous statements stated that I expected the majority of books sold to be ebooks no later than in ten years time).

Let me try again to state my position for you, since it seems to have become confused.

I'm talking about the UK book market. The US book market may see the change happen more quickly, other parts of the world more slowly, I can't be certain, but I'd guessing for the UK.

I'm talking about the volume of books sold, not the value of books sold. I would expect the value proportion of ebooks sold to lag the volume proportion because in general I expect paper books to be more expensive.

I expect that within ten years we'll see 50% of the books sold in the UK being ebooks.

I expect that within twenty years we'll see 80% of the books sold in the UK being ebooks.

I didn't previously give lower bounds, but I have since said that I don't expect to see the 50% mark reached within the next five years. Note that this provides a limit that my previous statement didn't have.

Summary:

I expect that in between five to ten years time, we'll see 50% of the books sold in the UK being ebooks.

I expect that in between 10 and twenty years time, we'll see 80% of the books sold in the UK being ebooks.

I'll now add an extra guess. I wouldn't expect to see more than 95% of the books in the UK sold as eBook within the next 25 years.

HTH.

In that case I apologise and retract my comments.