Future for ereaders

[ceebee_uk]

Having just parted with £100 for an e-reader (still a significant amount of money) I obviously believe in the technology and everyone is talking of the 'ipod moment' for books in the near future but I wonder what the future really holds for the market ?
My views for what they are worth;
- Kindle are following the Kodak/Gillette model i.e make the hardware cheap and take a loss if needs be so that you profit from sales of the stuff to go with it (difficult to describe razor blades as software ) which served them well when roll film and safety razors were new. They set the standard and others had to make things fit their devices. Will the closed azw format be the standard in future, if so where does that leave others ?
-Sony are an electronics company that produces technologically advanced equipment that works very well but has a lousy track record with winning standards wars e.g betamax , minidisc, ARTAC with Blu Ray the exception that proves the rule. Having realised this they no longer have a uk bookstore and rely on others to supply the goods but leave the hardware reasonably open and are supported by Calibre and ADE. In other words they are ok as long as Amazon does not dominate so much that only azw is available, in which case they strike a (presumably expensive) deal to get access to azw (and my device is dead) or they give up on the experience.
-THe other players (outside the USA this includes Barnes and Noble's Nook ) are 'me too' companies without the brand awareness of Sony or the web presence of Amazon. So they will need to innovate a LOT to differentiate the brand (and go the way of Irex ?) or become the bottom feeders at low prices with older technology.
-The elephant in the room is Apple's iPad which may make a pretty lousy
e-reader since it relies on a backlit LCD rather than e-ink but Betamax was probably a better system in many ways than VHS but most consumers buy what they see without too much research so that shouldn't hurt sales too much.

OK my prognosis- for the average 'person in the street' they want buying and using an e-book to be a similar experience to buying and using a paperback book but without the need to actually haul themselves to a book store or wait for delivery of the physical book. Instant gratification is what the web and iTunes has taught us to expect and so that's what they'll want (not a critique of lifestyle just an opinion) . The survivors will be in two camps;
1) The BIG portion will be those tied to a bookstore wirelessly (aka kindle or iPad) along the iTunes model - not exactly a poor business plan ! and the reader technology will be secondary as long as the reading experience replicates a paperback book (name the last time you made notes in the margin of a vacation paperback !) .
2) Readers with an open format for the smaller number of readers who want to choose their own books in a format which they prefer (DRM is not an issue if we are to reward intellectual endeavour) and are prepared to browse around, even maybe downloading via computer then transferring to the reader. This is an area I value as currently I get newspapers via calibre for free which I would pay for on Kindle)

Academic/business users may want to annotate the books but it's an add on not a prerequisite for most users.
In short Amazon will try very hard to impose their format, even if they take losses at first -remember the losses they took when they first set up and everyone laughed at the idea they could displace bookshops ? Apple will do a similar job with iPads and the bookstore but wont need to discount because people will buy iPads because its an iPad (as a mac user I know the power they have over users)

Sony are probably big enough to hang on for the smaller group but will need better tie ins to retailers and need to avoid missing the trick with WiFi again - the latest upgrade to the 300 series by adding a touch screen but no WiFi is ludicrous IMHO. Bookeen and the like I really like but dont hold much hope for their future.
Cheers

Any Comments ?

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Personally, I prefer a simple reader without added functions beyond reading books and does so well over having added bells and whistles. I do not want 3G connectivity for privacy reasons since the connections are unprotected. Same for WiFi. A USB cable isn't that big a deal to hook up although I've had no problems just pulling the SD card from my JBL, same as I do with my camera, and connecting it directly to my computer. People tout how much more useful an iPad is because it is a multifunction device. The additional functionality came at a price, though. It costs more, weighs more, and has a shorter battery life. I would much rather drop an e-book reader and be out $100-150 than the price of an iPad. Touch screens really aren't necessary to turn pages and select books from a menu.

Not everyone who reads has a computer so there is a place for devices that can connect directly to a store, even though the books they will received are pretty much locked to that brand of device. But there is still a place for simpler devices and hopefully manufacturers won't abandon them.

[BWhite]

Opinions about the future?

Well in the future almost every device will be an eReader, we are pretty much there now. My father reads books on his Motorola Droid and I am reading books on a Sony PSP gaming device.

Back-lit LCD is fine as long as you can turn the lighting down. Nothing wrong with e-ink either. Many portable devices charge by USB or the wall these days so power is not so much a problem. Wireless access is ubiquitous (McDonald's Starbucks, etc.) and will become even more so.

The Dedicated eReader Market... it will not go away. Big companies will continue to analyze this market and will allocate a level of funding for the development of technology appropriate to the kinds of profit they think the market will bear.
http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/01/s...entire-reader/
So in 2020 there may be a dedicated device that holds all the books you can buy in one life and which runs for two months on one charge.

Therefore the main issue for the future that I see is, an issue for both dedicated and non-dedicated reading devices...
not sure how the center-of-gravity for ebook consumers is going to shift in regards to whether they need to own the books they purchase.
http://freedomforip.org/2010/02/04/d...ebooks-part-1/

If the mass of consumers are comfortable with leasing DRM books in 2010, fine; but will the mass still be content when their libraries of books will no longer download to the latest Sony or Apple device in 2020? I am not sure how this is going to ultimately sort out.

Everyone knows the Library of Congress has to face this issue of changing formats and archival bookshelves too, so my problems in this regard are tiny compared to theirs.
http://www.digitalpreservation.gov/

So yes, in 2020 I expect you will still be able to purchase a nice dedicated eReader from somebody, just do not know if your Fictionwise.com bookshelf in mobipocket format will still be there for you to download.

[loopeylisie]

As an interested newcomer from what I understand I think your diagnosis seems correct which makes me quite sad. I always thought the mixed economy model most (western) countries favour (I am making a bit of a generalisation here) was supposed to prevent a company from monopolizing a market but in electronics we seem to be moving towards having a handful of large companies completely dominating the market. Which is great for the companies, less good for the consumer (especially as in your example with gilette, the price for razor blades is ASTRONOMICAL!)

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by loopeylisie

...(especially as in your example with gilette, the price for razor blades is ASTRONOMICAL!)

Not too mention you can't get them without that damned slime (lubricating) strip anymore!

[loopeylisie]

Originally Posted by Lady Fitzgerald

Not too mention you can't get them without that damned slime (lubricating) strip anymore!

they just go yukky don't they

[ceebee_uk]

I still use blades i.e thin slivers of steel that you put into a razor - not disposable razors, shows my age I suppose , I like to see it as more environmentally friendly '

on the original topic - 'As an interested newcomer from what I understand I think your diagnosis seems correct which makes me quite sad. I always thought the mixed economy model most (western) countries favour (I am making a bit of a generalisation here) was supposed to prevent a company from monopolizing a market but in electronics we seem to be moving towards having a handful of large companies completely dominating the market. Which is great for the companies, less good for the consumer (especially as in your example with gilette, the price for razor blades is ASTRONOMICAL!)'

Capitalism favours oligopolies or monopolies as it encourages 'survival of the fittest' i.e those companies who can meet or create customer demand in a way that maximises profit for the company- its not about consumers its about shareholder value. True innovation will be rewarded (iPod , Kindle) but often those who start the new trend will die as they make all the mistakes for others to avoid (Irex, Atari, etc. etc.) . Where this leaves the ereader market is likely to be one dominated by a few players and a few hangers on - the only way to make a format or supplier succeed is to buy into their product and ensure others do !
As a matter of interest I just did a quick scan of those viewing and posting to various sections;
Kindle 12 views 4264 threads
Apple 16 views 1165 threads
Nook 21 views 865 threads
Sony 64 views 8310 threads

No other device has 10 or more views and only Bookeen has more than 1000 posts which reflects its long life as an ereader brand rather than current ctivity I guess.

Not very scientific i admit but given that those in these forums are likely to be the ones who probably research their purchases it does not offer much hope for 'independent' book readers other than the Sony, which is tied to bookstores in the UK.

Cheers CJB

[harryE123]

To me, the future in e-ink can't come fast enough, things are still not even close to a modicum of required functionality.

As for apple, I too can't read much on an lcd, but can you blame them for choosing a tec that at least is already there in so many other respects? The ipad is revolutionary in so many ways, it really is the most innovative product to come out in a long, long time. But sadly there's no eink there.

[kennyc]

E-ink is great, but unless they can get it working in color and speed it up....I don't think it's the future, though it may continue to occupy a niche.

[DMB]

I very much hope they'll get rid of the geographical restrictions for ebooks. I find it maddening that some books I want by a British author are available in ebook format from US outlets who refuse to sell them to me and unavailable from UK outlets.

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by loopeylisie

they just go yukky don't they

They are yukky from the word go!

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by ceebee_uk

I still use blades i.e thin slivers of steel that you put into a razor - not disposable razors, shows my age I suppose , I like to see it as more environmentally friendly '...

If I can find a source for those blades, I need to dig out the old safety razors I got from my Daddy. They don't get clogged up if I've let my legs go for a while.

[Ravensknight]

Originally Posted by Lady Fitzgerald

If I can find a source for those blades, I need to dig out the old safety razors I got from my Daddy. They don't get clogged up if I've let my legs go for a while.

BAD KARMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
some things we do NOT need to know, thankyou...

[Lady Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

BAD KARMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
some things we do NOT need to know, thankyou...

It's part of life, same as gas, etc. Deal with with it.

[CallOfCth'reader]

Originally Posted by kennyc

E-ink is great, but unless they can get it working in color and speed it up....I don't think it's the future, though it may continue to occupy a niche.

I'm not sure if e-ink will have a long term role in readers, but it's being used in other areas (the new line of credit cards spring to mind). I'm certain that LCD won't be the technology of the future though, unless the developers can reduce its fragility and power requirements.