Kevin Kelly: Predicting the next 5,000 days of the web

Kris777 · 02-08-2009, 01:50 AM

Very interesting prediction about web (eBooks are a part of the web

)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDYCf4ONh5M
If you don't mind to spend 20 minutes to see this video and share your opinion you are welcome to participate in this poll:

1. strongly agree with Kevin Kelly
2. agree
3. neither agree or disagree
4. disagree
5. strongly disagree

Steven Lyle Jordan · 02-08-2009, 09:17 AM

Kelly's concept of the web as being "one machine," comparable to a single human brain, is interesting. I noted that he skirted around the issue of the difference between those entities, that is, consciousness. His statement (at the end) that the world, both humanity and the "one machine," had the web as its OS, suggests a fairly superficial examination of the real relationship between humanity and its machines, and a vague understanding of what those machines really do, and how they do it. (As opposed to calling the web an "OS," I would probably call it an "interface.")

He comments (at about 10:00) that copies will have no value, the value will be in the uncopyable. If a copy has no value, why would anyone buy it? A copy does have value, if it is something a consumer wants.

Kelly states that "total personalization will require total transparency." This is probably the most important statement in the entire presentation, suggesting that humanity will give up privacy for the benefits of a highly personalized web. It seems as if humanity would resist doing this... but we see signs every day that this is, in fact, happening now. So, in this he seems to be on the mark.

His final conclusion--that the web in the next 5,000 days will be smarter, more personalized, and more ubiquitous--is pretty obvious. I expected a lot more than that at the end.

Kris777 · 02-08-2009, 09:30 PM

Yes, this prediction as a mix of real and digital world sounds like MATRIX moviee but it is good to remember that before Interenet it was really difficult to predict all Internet opportunities that we have now. I can't say that I'm 100% agree with Kevin Kelly but many ideas sounds very resonable.

Some info from Wikipedia:
Andy and Larry Wachowski, writers/directors of the film The Matrix, required the principal actors of the film to read three books prior to the start of filming, including Kelly’s 1995 book Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World.

02-08-2009, 01:50 AM	#1
Kris777 Banned Posts: 1,767 Karma: 2520493 Join Date: Oct 2008 Device: Nexus 7, jetBook-Lite, jetBook mini, Toshiba Thrive, JETBOOK COLOR	Kevin Kelly: Predicting the next 5,000 days of the web Very interesting prediction about web (eBooks are a part of the web ) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDYCf4ONh5M If you don't mind to spend 20 minutes to see this video and share your opinion you are welcome to participate in this poll: 1. strongly agree with Kevin Kelly 2. agree 3. neither agree or disagree 4. disagree 5. strongly disagree Last edited by Kris777; 02-08-2009 at 02:46 AM.

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View Poll Results: Your opinion about this prediction:
strongly agree	0	0%
agree	2	50.00%
neither agree or disagree	0	0%
disagree	1	25.00%
strongly disagree	1	25.00%
Voters: 4. You may not vote on this poll

02-08-2009, 09:17 AM	#2
Steven Lyle Jordan Grand Sorcerer Posts: 8,478 Karma: 5171130 Join Date: Jan 2006 Device: none	Kelly's concept of the web as being "one machine," comparable to a single human brain, is interesting. I noted that he skirted around the issue of the difference between those entities, that is, consciousness. His statement (at the end) that the world, both humanity and the "one machine," had the web as its OS, suggests a fairly superficial examination of the real relationship between humanity and its machines, and a vague understanding of what those machines really do, and how they do it. (As opposed to calling the web an "OS," I would probably call it an "interface.") He comments (at about 10:00) that copies will have no value, the value will be in the uncopyable. If a copy has no value, why would anyone buy it? A copy does have value, if it is something a consumer wants. Kelly states that "total personalization will require total transparency." This is probably the most important statement in the entire presentation, suggesting that humanity will give up privacy for the benefits of a highly personalized web. It seems as if humanity would resist doing this... but we see signs every day that this is, in fact, happening now. So, in this he seems to be on the mark. His final conclusion--that the web in the next 5,000 days will be smarter, more personalized, and more ubiquitous--is pretty obvious. I expected a lot more than that at the end.

02-08-2009, 09:30 PM	#3
Kris777 Banned Posts: 1,767 Karma: 2520493 Join Date: Oct 2008 Device: Nexus 7, jetBook-Lite, jetBook mini, Toshiba Thrive, JETBOOK COLOR	Yes, this prediction as a mix of real and digital world sounds like MATRIX moviee but it is good to remember that before Interenet it was really difficult to predict all Internet opportunities that we have now. I can't say that I'm 100% agree with Kevin Kelly but many ideas sounds very resonable. Some info from Wikipedia: Andy and Larry Wachowski, writers/directors of the film The Matrix, required the principal actors of the film to read three books prior to the start of filming, including Kelly’s 1995 book Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World.

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