A question on convergence...

[jeffcobb]

This is a question for the Android devs (hence it is here) although it is not Android specific. When I was a kid there was TV, movie, telephone, record player, radio etc. Then a curious thing happened...and now my telephone can also play movies, browse the web, play music, play games (to an extent) and listen to radio. At the same time, my computer can make phone calls, send faxes, do movies, TV, etc. My TV (well *my* TV but I have been working on a Video/TV/Web/Games on demand system for years; my wife is disabled so making everything available via a remote is a solution for us and a damned fun project for a tinkerer like me. We can watch literally any episode of any show (that we like) any time of the day, any movie in our collection, etc. Think of those pay-per-view things in the hotels and multiply it by several thousand times the content). Now the tablet computing comes along. iPad first but Android is not at all far behind; there is a multitude of companies readying products of this type that also blend the web, social networking, book reading, video watching and 3G enabled ones will be making phone calls, either VOIP or thru traditional means depending on hardware. I mean my "book" (Nook) can browse the web, play music, etc.

All of that is to ask this: Where do you see this going? Is everything going to continue to do more and more of everything else? If so, where is there room for specialization? For example McDonalds holds a lot of the public in its palm even though it tries to do everything, even if the end product is mediocre....when some place like In and Out (West Coast chain) only has like three things on the menu (burgers, fries, drinks), they are out of this world good. So have single-purpose devices seen there day (and gone)? Put another way, when everything does everything else (and hence, all the same things) what will be the point as a consumer of buying one thing over another?

The person who figures this out will win.

[kennyc]

I think convergence will continue to some extent. All media appears to be moving to digital format and accessible via the internet. The recent opening of radio spectrum for "Super Wifi" will play into this as well. It's my belief that likely within the decade we (if we do desire) will be "connected" 24/7 and be able to work or play with multiple devices which will be "aware" of our profiles and communicate via the internet with one-another and be able to track our history for our convenience.

That said I believe there will be multipurpose devices -- like my DroidX which I am totally infatuated with -- that allow all manner of access, but also special purpose devices such as TV and Video projectors to provide enhanced experiences of a particular type.

I hate trying to "type" on my phone, but it can do it, I'd love to carry my home desktop with me everywhere but it's not nearly as portable as my Droid.

.....

Google is headed in the right direction to dominate the world.

[jeffcobb]

Originally Posted by kennyc

I think convergence will continue to some extent. All media appears to be moving to digital format and accessible via the internet. The recent opening of radio spectrum for "Super Wifi" will play into this as well. It's my belief that likely within the decade we (if we do desire) will be "connected" 24/7 and be able to work or play with multiple devices which will be "aware" of our profiles and communicate via the internet with one-another and be able to track our history for our convenience.

That said I believe there will be multipurpose devices -- like my DroidX which I am totally infatuated with -- that allow all manner of access, but also special purpose devices such as TV and Video projectors to provide enhanced experiences of a particular type.

I hate trying to "type" on my phone, but it can do it, I'd love to carry my home desktop with me everywhere but it's not nearly as portable as my Droid.

.....

Google is headed in the right direction to dominate the world.

Hey Kenny;
First allow me to thank you for your words. While a lot of guesses can be right in the general direction, I don't know if any of us know the true direction for sure. Like I said, I am seeing everything becoming capable of everything else. Your idea of "always-on" connectivity is probably closer to the target than you might think at first glance. Although every gig is different, I have to say that when I worked for Sony, you almost always were "on". In some cases it didn't even matter how you got there. Let me explain:
First I almost always carried one laptop and one hyper-connected phone with me where ever I went in San Francisco. However it truly was a case of the right tool at the right time. From work to the train-station and from the train station at the other end, the cell phone (with XTerminal in it) provided connectivity for the time when you were in that sphere. On the train, at home both used either a netbook or laptop to stay connected via VPN and in general, code. A laptop came with me on vacation and on weekends. At work, I used a laptop. In general all three types did coding, image/book reading, connecting to the Internet and more. As time went on and I got more powerful gadgets I was able to reduce the sheer number of them and as a result, functional overlap. The form-facter of most device like things (cellphones, some netbooks) limited what I could do with them in any certain situation but on the contrary, as these were all good coding devices so if I was at a meeting, on the road, etc and a BFO struck I could not only code up the solution but in most cases, test it out as a proof of concept long before I presented it to my employer.

[kennyc]

Oh yeah, I and my coworkers are there now as well. The thing I'm thinking though is the more general public. And the ability of the multiple devices to automatically maintain a common 'history' is only just beginning to emerge.

[jeffcobb]

Yeah but did you see today where Microsoft is now suing smart-phone makers and specifically Motorolla/Droid for things like detecting low batter conditions, syncing email and calendar stuff on the phone/desktop, etc? They invented none of it but now want a place on every major makers revenue sheet. Coincidentally enough, this is the same week where they swore Windows 7 mobile made you safe from patent suits and that Motorola decided not to carry a Windows 7 mobile device..