My mama said: "In 10 years, those will be gone." - Page 2

crich70 · 01-24-2014, 07:19 PM

I think e-books are here to stay. I remember a change over when DVD's 1st came on the scene. First it was all VHS tapes, then 25% DVD 75% VHS, then 50%DVD and 50% VHS, then it went to 75%DVD and 25%VHS. Now days you can't find a movie on VHS cassette any more. I don't know if books will go quite that far so that any paper ones will be museum pieces but I do think they will rise to at least 50% of the market if not more.

Jessica Lares · 01-24-2014, 07:27 PM

When technology goes away, it's because things merge to create better tools.

What happened to pocket organizers? The smartphone happened.

What happened to the iPod? People started putting large storage and music players in feature phones and the smartphones that followed.

What happened to the point-and-shoot? The smartphone's camera became more sophisticated and easier to use while getting the same results.

What happened to the Game Boy? The App Store happened. (I know there is a DS, I have the 3DS eve, but it is losing Nintendo money every year)

What happened to the laptop? The iPad was the same price, smaller, and just as robust.

eReaders are not going away anytime soon, but I think this is the year where the production will get smaller. Because what we really need is color e-ink, and pretty much nobody is ready to give us that yet.

Lemurion · 01-24-2014, 07:34 PM

I think your mother's wrong. Digital provides a number of clear advantages over print, so people who rely on those benefits will continue to read digitally into the indefinite future. (Note that print has its own set of advantages, neither is universally better than the other, but there are people who find the advantages of digital more compelling as well as those who prefer print.)

My own expectation is that the mass market paperback is heading into a steep decline and will soon (5-15 years) be almost completely eclipsed by digital. The mass market, particularly in North America, with its combination of relatively low prices and strip cover returns is just too inefficient. Publishers will shift this part of the catalog to digital because it makes more business sense.

As for hardcovers and trade paperbacks, I don't see them vanishing any time soon. I'd be surprised if they didn't last at least the rest of this century, and expect them to survive even longer.

Katsunami · 01-24-2014, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemurion

I think your mother's wrong. Digital provides a number of clear advantages over print, so people who rely on those benefits will continue to read digitally into the indefinite future. (Note that print has its own set of advantages, neither is universally better than the other, but there are people who find the advantages of digital more compelling as well as those who prefer print.)

My own expectation is that the mass market paperback is heading into a steep decline and will soon (5-15 years) be almost completely eclipsed by digital. The mass market, particularly in North America, with its combination of relatively low prices and strip cover returns is just too inefficient. Publishers will shift this part of the catalog to digital because it makes more business sense.

As for hardcovers and trade paperbacks, I don't see them vanishing any time soon. I'd be surprised if they didn't last at least the rest of this century, and expect them to survive even longer.

This is exactly what I think as well.

I'll probably start reading in that way very soon: read all books as e-books, and buy a nice hardcover of my absolute favorites, just for the sake of having it as a tangible object. Previously, I bought my "nice to read" books as paperbacks, and replaced a favorite one with a hardcover. (Done away with most of the hardcovers after I switched from Dutch to English.)

Basically, what you described has already happened for me: e-books have replaced the paperbacks. The hardcovers are now just keepsakes. Maybe if I reread Lord of the Rings sometime (again....), I'll read it as a hardcover, for old times' sake.

And, as pointed out in some other threads, some books are just way more easily handled in paper, such as many textbooks and reference books.

HansTWN · 01-24-2014, 08:56 PM

In 10 years p-books will be no more than 5% of the market in the US.

VictoriaP · 01-24-2014, 09:59 PM

I guess I don't see ebooks as a niche market NOW, let alone 10 years from now. Granted, I'm in a high tech city, so my viewpoint is a bit skewed, but five years ago, a Kindle in public meant everyone nearby coming over to ask about it. (Same thing with the original iPhone & iPad.) Nowadays, no one notices or cares enough to comment--ereaders are too common nowadays, and there's no novelty about seeing one in a lobby or on a plane. The novelty to me is in seeing someone reading a paper book!

So no, bless her, but I think Mom is wrong on that score. I suspect paper books will be around through most of our lifetimes, but eventually they'll be no more than collectors' items, gathering dust and mold spores while everyone reads electronically. The hardware may change (as it already has with many transitioning to tablets and reading apps), but I think we've seen the beginning of the demise of paper as a medium for word storage.

gmw · 01-24-2014, 11:24 PM

As some have already noted, it is appropriate to separate ebooks from ereaders. ebooks will continue (assuming no apocalyptic events forcing everyone back to paper), but I think the days of the dedicated ereader are numbered. Probably not soon, but I expect ereaders to become collectors curiosities well before paper books get there. With my future-seeing-goggles on, I think paper books will remain common for at least another generation, while dedicated ereaders will be lucky to see out another 10 years.

Then again, since I got the goggles cheap from a man that also offered to sell me the Sydney Harbour Bridge for dollar, there's a chance I could be wrong.

OtterBooks · 01-24-2014, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VictoriaP

The hardware may change (as it already has with many transitioning to tablets and reading apps), but I think we've seen the beginning of the demise of paper as a medium for word storage.

Ah, paper, maybe so. I find it curious that after 500 years or so, the first device to really get people to consider a new medium for their books was only able to get rid of the paper aspect. Ink survived the transition to yet another medium in its 2000+ year use. People sure do seem to like reading their books in pigment. Yeah tablets and such have jumped on board, but I don't think dedicated ereaders are going anywhere until ink is succeeded in a way that satisfies its adherents.

cromag · 01-25-2014, 12:11 AM

My Mom begs to differ. She's closing in on 90. We got her a Kindle for Christmas, and she loves it!

crich70 · 01-25-2014, 01:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cromag

My Mom begs to differ. She's closing in on 90. We got her a Kindle for Christmas, and she loves it!

I imagine your mom really likes the light weight of the Kindle and its adjustable font size.

cromag · 01-25-2014, 01:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crich70

I imagine your mom really likes the light weight of the Kindle and its adjustable font size.

Yes, and it saves her place.

bbpo8 · 01-25-2014, 01:53 AM

Interesting question. I think we are in for the unexpected. Book reading is not a homogeneous phenomenon, in which one technology will oust another.

Instead, some of functions which books had performed will be taken over by the web (e.g. Wikipedia), other functions by apps (e.g. dictionaries). Novels and popular nonfiction are probably the most likely to come out as e-books. Many technical and scientific works will probably continue to appear as PDFs.

Books which could be considered subversive might appear in paper form so as to avoid government surveillance. Textbooks seem to have certain advantages in paper - easier to flip back and forth, for example.

New media usually don't totally replace old media. Instead, each specializes in what it does best. Movies and radio lived on after television - and so it will be with p-books and e-books.

Kumabjorn · 01-25-2014, 02:15 AM

I think parchement is bound to have a huge comeback. There is something aestethically appealling about carrying around scrolls.

rkomar · 01-25-2014, 02:47 AM

One thing paper books have going for them is that it's legal to pass them on to others. As long as you can find someone to take it, the book has a chance of surviving. With ebooks, those still under copyright can't be passed on legally. After a century or two, I think that it will still be the paper books that survive, and not the digital copies.

Sydney's Mom · 01-25-2014, 03:21 AM

A lot of schools are equipping the students with kindles or ipads, where their books will be. I can't imagine students in college or graduate schools will be lugging books around. Also, even though I didn't use ebooks when I was in school or first starting in work, now all the legal books are available as ebooks, and all legal research is online. I cannot imagine ever going back to paper books (and I am surprised your mother likes paper books--when I was sick recently, and my vision was bad, I just adjusted the font up several sizes, and I kept reading). As the population ages, large print books will be out of fashion, and we will just all adjust the font.

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01-24-2014, 07:19 PM	#16
crich70 Grand Sorcerer Posts: 11,306 Karma: 43993832 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Monroe Wisconsin Device: K3, Kindle Paperwhite, Calibre, and Mobipocket for Pc (netbook)	I think e-books are here to stay. I remember a change over when DVD's 1st came on the scene. First it was all VHS tapes, then 25% DVD 75% VHS, then 50%DVD and 50% VHS, then it went to 75%DVD and 25%VHS. Now days you can't find a movie on VHS cassette any more. I don't know if books will go quite that far so that any paper ones will be museum pieces but I do think they will rise to at least 50% of the market if not more.

01-24-2014, 07:27 PM	#17
Jessica Lares Wizard Posts: 2,240 Karma: 5759170 Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: Near Dallas, Texas, USA Device: iPad Mini, iPod Touch (5th gen)	When technology goes away, it's because things merge to create better tools. What happened to pocket organizers? The smartphone happened. What happened to the iPod? People started putting large storage and music players in feature phones and the smartphones that followed. What happened to the point-and-shoot? The smartphone's camera became more sophisticated and easier to use while getting the same results. What happened to the Game Boy? The App Store happened. (I know there is a DS, I have the 3DS eve, but it is losing Nintendo money every year) What happened to the laptop? The iPad was the same price, smaller, and just as robust. eReaders are not going away anytime soon, but I think this is the year where the production will get smaller. Because what we really need is color e-ink, and pretty much nobody is ready to give us that yet.

01-24-2014, 07:34 PM	#18
Lemurion eReader Posts: 2,750 Karma: 4968470 Join Date: Aug 2007 Device: Note 5; PW3; Nook HD+; ChuWi Hi12; iPad	I think your mother's wrong. Digital provides a number of clear advantages over print, so people who rely on those benefits will continue to read digitally into the indefinite future. (Note that print has its own set of advantages, neither is universally better than the other, but there are people who find the advantages of digital more compelling as well as those who prefer print.) My own expectation is that the mass market paperback is heading into a steep decline and will soon (5-15 years) be almost completely eclipsed by digital. The mass market, particularly in North America, with its combination of relatively low prices and strip cover returns is just too inefficient. Publishers will shift this part of the catalog to digital because it makes more business sense. As for hardcovers and trade paperbacks, I don't see them vanishing any time soon. I'd be surprised if they didn't last at least the rest of this century, and expect them to survive even longer.

01-24-2014, 08:56 PM	#20
HansTWN Wizard Posts: 4,538 Karma: 264065402 Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Taiwan Device: HP Touchpad, Sony Duo 13, Lumia 920, Kobo Aura HD	In 10 years p-books will be no more than 5% of the market in the US.

01-24-2014, 09:59 PM	#21
VictoriaP Addict Posts: 298 Karma: 491576 Join Date: Mar 2009 Device: Kindle PW2; Kindle Touch; Kindle 2; iPad Mini; iPad1	I guess I don't see ebooks as a niche market NOW, let alone 10 years from now. Granted, I'm in a high tech city, so my viewpoint is a bit skewed, but five years ago, a Kindle in public meant everyone nearby coming over to ask about it. (Same thing with the original iPhone & iPad.) Nowadays, no one notices or cares enough to comment--ereaders are too common nowadays, and there's no novelty about seeing one in a lobby or on a plane. The novelty to me is in seeing someone reading a paper book! So no, bless her, but I think Mom is wrong on that score. I suspect paper books will be around through most of our lifetimes, but eventually they'll be no more than collectors' items, gathering dust and mold spores while everyone reads electronically. The hardware may change (as it already has with many transitioning to tablets and reading apps), but I think we've seen the beginning of the demise of paper as a medium for word storage.

01-24-2014, 11:24 PM	#22
gmw cacoethes scribendi Posts: 5,809 Karma: 137770742 Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Australia Device: Kobo Aura One & H2Ov2, Sony PRS-650	As some have already noted, it is appropriate to separate ebooks from ereaders. ebooks will continue (assuming no apocalyptic events forcing everyone back to paper), but I think the days of the dedicated ereader are numbered. Probably not soon, but I expect ereaders to become collectors curiosities well before paper books get there. With my future-seeing-goggles on, I think paper books will remain common for at least another generation, while dedicated ereaders will be lucky to see out another 10 years. Then again, since I got the goggles cheap from a man that also offered to sell me the Sydney Harbour Bridge for dollar, there's a chance I could be wrong.

01-25-2014, 12:11 AM	#24
cromag Surfin the alpha waves ~~ Posts: 24,268 Karma: 459220161 Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: New Jersey Device: Jetbook Lite & Mini, Nook STR, Kobo, Hanvon N516, Kindle 2, Androids	My Mom begs to differ. She's closing in on 90. We got her a Kindle for Christmas, and she loves it!

01-25-2014, 01:53 AM	#27
bbpo8 Member Posts: 20 Karma: 515570 Join Date: Nov 2013 Location: Palo Alto, California Usono Device: Kobo Arc and Aura HD, Kindle Keyboard, and DX	Interesting question. I think we are in for the unexpected. Book reading is not a homogeneous phenomenon, in which one technology will oust another. Instead, some of functions which books had performed will be taken over by the web (e.g. Wikipedia), other functions by apps (e.g. dictionaries). Novels and popular nonfiction are probably the most likely to come out as e-books. Many technical and scientific works will probably continue to appear as PDFs. Books which could be considered subversive might appear in paper form so as to avoid government surveillance. Textbooks seem to have certain advantages in paper - easier to flip back and forth, for example. New media usually don't totally replace old media. Instead, each specializes in what it does best. Movies and radio lived on after television - and so it will be with p-books and e-books.

01-25-2014, 02:15 AM	#28
Kumabjorn Basculocolpic Posts: 4,356 Karma: 20181319 Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Sweden Device: Kindle 3 WiFi, Kindle 4SO, Kindle for Android, Sony PRS-350 and PRS-T1	I think parchement is bound to have a huge comeback. There is something aestethically appealling about carrying around scrolls.

01-25-2014, 02:47 AM	#29
rkomar Wizard Posts: 2,981 Karma: 18343081 Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Sudbury, ON, Canada Device: PRS-505, PB 902, PRS-T1, PB 623, PB 840, PB 633	One thing paper books have going for them is that it's legal to pass them on to others. As long as you can find someone to take it, the book has a chance of surviving. With ebooks, those still under copyright can't be passed on legally. After a century or two, I think that it will still be the paper books that survive, and not the digital copies.

01-25-2014, 03:21 AM	#30
Sydney's Mom Wizard Posts: 2,895 Karma: 6995721 Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Idaho, on the side of a mountain Device: Kindle Oasis, Fire 3d Gen and 5th Gen and Samsung Tab S	A lot of schools are equipping the students with kindles or ipads, where their books will be. I can't imagine students in college or graduate schools will be lugging books around. Also, even though I didn't use ebooks when I was in school or first starting in work, now all the legal books are available as ebooks, and all legal research is online. I cannot imagine ever going back to paper books (and I am surprised your mother likes paper books--when I was sick recently, and my vision was bad, I just adjusted the font up several sizes, and I kept reading). As the population ages, large print books will be out of fashion, and we will just all adjust the font.