The Amazon e-book sales guessing game continues

[LazyScot]

I'd definitely want this analysis to be true. Which from experience means it is widely optimistic.

The 6% of books available is interesting, but I'd really like to know more about the breakdown of those c. 125,000 books. The reason is that I think some books are much more likely to be bought in electronic format than others (and I'm not convinced that all those 125,000 books are really available in both formats [in roughly equivalent time frames]). This will skew any prediction on likely sales which assume that one day all books (except, possibly, Beedle the Bard) become available electronically.

In the same vein, it would be interesting to have a breakdown of the buying habits of Kindle owners -- if they (I wish I could say us) consume books at the same rate oil companies make money, then the 6% might be a little high. [Hint: predicting corporate tax income for an entire economy based on the profitability of oil companies may results in minor budgetary errors.]

Finally I think we are still a little bit away from an "E-Ink iPod". It sounds like an excellent device, but the underlying technology probably needs another generation to hit the point at which it can really capture the imagination.

[delphidb96]

Originally Posted by LazyScot

I'd definitely want this analysis to be true. Which from experience means it is widely optimistic.

The 6% of books available is interesting, but I'd really like to know more about the breakdown of those c. 125,000 books. The reason is that I think some books are much more likely to be bought in electronic format than others (and I'm not convinced that all those 125,000 books are really available in both formats [in roughly equivalent time frames]). This will skew any prediction on likely sales which assume that one day all books (except, possibly, Beedle the Bard) become available electronically.

In the same vein, it would be interesting to have a breakdown of the buying habits of Kindle owners -- if they (I wish I could say us) consume books at the same rate oil companies make money, then the 6% might be a little high. [Hint: predicting corporate tax income for an entire economy based on the profitability of oil companies may results in minor budgetary errors.]

Finally I think we are still a little bit away from an "E-Ink iPod". It sounds like an excellent device, but the underlying technology probably needs another generation to hit the point at which it can really capture the imagination.

Hell, getting really fine-grained breakdowns of sales numbers from publishers is like getting 'free samples of gold' from Fort Knox - it just ain't in the cards. (You'd think you were asking them to release secrets on how to build an atom bomb or something.)

That said, I'd be willing to bet that some titles being released as e-books are "well, we've already peaked on hard-cover and mass-market paperback sales and the numbers don't warrant a new print run, so let's toss it out on the e-book market just to see if anything happens" releases. I also believe that they tend to want to see, on the new releases of big-name authors, the same kind of "massive" sales figures they see from dead-tree versions, this despite the disparity between dead-tree readership and electronic readership.

And I think they're seeing across-the-title-spectrum rise on ebook sales, but they're not seeing the 'buying frenzy' on specific titles because we electronic readers are so starved for new titles that we'll buy way out of our normal reading patterns just to have titles to read. (I know *I* have vastly widened my reading patterns now that I have my Cybook.)

Derek

[TheMooch]

Originally Posted by astra

Karma is on its way

ROFL! How true how true. The thought keeps going through my head "a face only a mother could love". At that point I stop feeling sorry for myself and start looking at the price of the Kindle again. )

[TheMooch]

Originally Posted by LazyScot

RickyMaveety is your ex-wife?

hehe and the ref takes a point away....

[SanAntone]

There are a ton of magazines available on Zinio. I've been a subscriber for several years and the quality is amazing. It is page for page exactly like the print version. I'd love to see this ported over to an eink device once the technology is there.

[TheMooch]

Originally Posted by SanAntone

There are a ton of magazines available on Zinio. I've been a subscriber for several years and the quality is amazing. It is page for page exactly like the print version. I'd love to see this ported over to an eink device once the technology is there.

I played with Zinio at one point. It was kinda nice, but I didn't like being tied to my computer with them. I think they'd be a lot better when we get to the letter size color e-ink devices. Magazines would absolutely rock at that point.

I currently get Home Power Magazine in pdf format. It's nice for traveling, but again, tied to my computer as they render poorly on the Sony.

[markbot]

someone should post articles from the wall street journal. they occasionally have articles...like together...on the Kindle. i would do it but I'm not sure how.

[TadW]

Weinstein did some more crystal ball reading:

Weinstein added that online retailer Amazon, of Seattle, could sell between 700,000 and 800,000 of the devices by the end of 2008. But, he said, "I don't expect it to have the same impact on the industry as the iPod had on the music industry."

Link: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/200...7721215265593/