Three million Kindle users by end of 2010, says analyst

[fugazied]

I'm skeptical I have to say. There are some other ebook readers that look like they are progressing faster technologially. There are the Amazon DRM problems, and some other readers have better title licensing. Like the new Sony's look great and the possible release of the Apple tablet is looming (probably out next month).

I am definitely enjoying my Kindle but I can see it's faults and am always looking at how the other readers are developing!

[Who are you?]

According to information I could find e-ink sold about 1 million displays in 2008.
In Q1 2009 they sold for $18 million worth of displays, 157% growth compared to Q1 2008.

Assuming that growth doesn't go down too much over the rest of 2009 and into 2010, e-ink would sell another 6-7 million displays over those two years. Amazon taking 40% of those doesn't seem all that impossible.

[krischik]

Originally Posted by Alexander Turcic

4% of the total U.S. population

Which in turn is only 5% of the worlds population so Kindle would be owned by 2‰ of the world population. In most countries you can have more alcohol in your blood and still be allowed to drive a car. So count me not impressed.

Apart from number shovelling - Amazons planned deals with Vodaphone and/or T-Online failed so it will stay that way.

And at least Vodaphone has it's own ebook plans.

And last not least: Of what does the eBook reader icon in this German advert for an eBook store remind you of? Yep - when Amazon against all odds does make it to Europe they won't have the same brand recognition as they have in the states.

Originally Posted by K-Thom

For now I'd say, the USA are Amazon's turf.

And the rest of the world - with potentially 20 times the customer base - is Sony's turf. Even the EU alone has twice the potential customer base.

Martin

[poohbear_nc]

Originally Posted by K-Thom

Convenience and pervasion. The Kindle already is a mainstream item. Even people who don't own it know about it. 3 million devices is quite an optimistic number, but 2 million plus x are more than realistic, and I don't know of any reading device in Northern America or Europe which comes/came even close in terms of sales.

Sony's only chance to really compete against Amazon (and/or Apple, in the future) is to open a worldwide operating eBook store without any regional restrictions (still would be DRM'd, though) and offer at least one device with WiFi capability.

For now I'd say, the USA are Amazon's turf. eBook devices are just one of the many branches of Sony, thus it will be very interesting to watch how long Sony will stay in this business and how often they release new devices. If sales numbers don't meet the (sometimes unrealistic) expectations, Sony is likely to shut down any project.

I think this is the key. My reading of the article was that the Kindle growth would occur in Amazon's present customer base - pbook readers already familiar with the ease of "one click" purchases, huge selection, safe transactions, etc. Readers already buying books from Amazon, now subject daily to images of the Kindle on Amazon's home page, book page, etc. will migrate to the Kindle - it will seem familiar, safe, and (eventually?) cheaper for them. Especially for those readers that are not tech geeks, and are unaware they have any other real choices.

[krischik]

Originally Posted by poohbear_nc

Especially for those readers that are not tech geeks, and are unaware they have any other real choices.

And this too will be a problem for Amazon when they come to Europe. Sony has been pushing hard here - Customers are used to finding Sony readers in almost every Bookstore - Online or stone and mortar.

Examples:

http://www.libri.de/shop/action/magazine/6/ebooks.html
http://www.bol.de/shop/bde_bue_hg_startseite/show/
http://www.stauffacher.ch/shop/stb_s...tartseite/show
http://www.thalia.de/shop/ebooks/show/
http://www.thalia.ch/shop/jae_ebo_startseite/show/

Stauffacher and Thalia both have stone and mortar as well and you find Sony there on display.

And an in interesting is that all Shops sell Sony. Think what the non-geek will thing when Amanzon finally arrives. They will view it as a me-too product and they wonder why everbody apart from Amazon sells Sony?

Martin

[Daithi]

According to publisher Simon & Schuster, Mark Levin’s book Liberty and Tyranny has already sold over 900,000 books and has 1,185,000 copies in print. This is 1 book.

I don't believe 3 million Kindles is out of the question. I believe the U.S. population is over 300 million, so that's one person out of a hundred (about the same chance as being a millionaire in the U.S.).

[Jellby]

Originally Posted by Daithi

I don't believe 3 million Kindles is out of the question. I believe the U.S. population is over 300 million, so that's one person out of a hundred (about the same chance as being a millionaire in the U.S.).

So only millionaires have Kindles?

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by fugazied

...nd the possible release of the Apple tablet is

Again, that could be where the "users" part of the statement comes in as I'd think it likely that any Apple tablet would have a Kindle App like the iPhone/iTouch. And it could be more successful as it would be easier than trying to read on those small screens.

[jasonkchapman]

Originally Posted by Daithi

According to publisher Simon & Schuster, Mark Levin’s book Liberty and Tyranny has already sold over 900,000 books and has 1,185,000 copies in print. This is 1 book.

I don't believe 3 million Kindles is out of the question. I believe the U.S. population is over 300 million, so that's one person out of a hundred (about the same chance as being a millionaire in the U.S.).

Except that what a publisher calls a "sale" isn't what the rest of us call a sale. The rest of us think that means a product actually gets into the end user's hands in exchange for money. To a publisher, it might just mean it's stacked in a bunch of stores and hasn't been remaindered yet.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by ficbot

I still think the USA-only aspect is going to come back to hurt the Kindle in the end. They might finally open it up to the world only to find that the large non-American section of the book population has become entrenched with other, maybe better devices. An ebook device from Apple which reads multiple formats and can be managed via iTunes might kill the Kindle for good if such a thing ever happens...

Not having ePub is going to hurt the Kindle as well.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

Not having ePub is going to hurt the Kindle as well.

I really don't think that matters.

The average, mainstream user doesn't care about formats. They're just going to buy a device (a Kindle in this case) buy books from the attached store and be perfectly happy.

All this format stuff only really matters to the "tech nerds" (no offense intended) who are avid readers. Hell, I'm quite tech inclined and I don't give a crap about it. I buy an e-book, read it once and will never touch it again. If it's something I loved and want to read again I'll buy a hardback of it.

Format will have little to no impact on which reader wins the sales wars when e-readers start going more mainstream.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

I really don't think that matters.

The average, mainstream user doesn't care about formats. They're just going to buy a device (a Kindle in this case) buy books from the attached store and be perfectly happy.

All this format stuff only really matters to the "tech nerds" (no offense intended) who are avid readers. Hell, I'm quite tech inclined and I don't give a crap about it. I buy an e-book, read it once and will never touch it again. If it's something I loved and want to read again I'll buy a hardback of it.

Format will have little to no impact on which reader wins the sales wars when e-readers start going more mainstream.

Outside the US, ePub is the format of choice. So I cannot really see the Kindle line making inroads outside the USA. Also, as we get standardize formatting since most readers will have ADE with ePub, I do think Amazon's lack of ePub will hurt it in the long run.

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by krischik

And this too will be a problem for Amazon when they come to Europe. Customers are used to finding Sony readers in almost every Bookstore - Online or stone and mortar....

Sony readers are available in many stores in the US -- even on Amazon's site by the way . The Kindle is only available online through Amazon's own store, and has put Sony in second place, desperate to catch up, in less than 2 years.

I know that common sense says that "no in-store presence" ought to hurt the Kindle, but the evidence clearly shows this is not the case. I don't know why it's worked out that way, but it just doesn't seem to matter.

Originally Posted by JSWolf

Outside the US, ePub is the format of choice. So I cannot really see the Kindle line making inroads outside the USA....

I'm with dmaul1114, I don't think it matters. The big draw for the Kindle is that you don't have to think about it -- just go to Amazon, one-click buy the book, and *poof* it's on your Kindle / iPhone. Very appealing and easy to use for someone who isn't technically inclined -- and barely cares about, let alone performs a detailed analysis of the pros and cons of, various formats.

Or, if we look to recent history: Apple took a lot of grief over its refusal to open up Fairplay and thus limiting access to the iPod. AAC saw little (if any) use in portable devices prior to the iPod; MP3 and, to a lesser extent, WMV were dominant. Yet the iPod still slaughtered the competition despite using an almost unknown format....

[igorsk]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Sony readers are available in many stores in the US -- even on Amazon's site by the way . The Kindle is only available online through Amazon's own store, and has put Sony in second place, desperate to catch up, in less than 2 years.

That "second place" is so far only in analysts' minds. Don't you think Amazon would say something if they really had more units sold than Sony?

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

I'm with dmaul1114, I don't think it matters. The big draw for the Kindle is that you don't have to think about it -- just go to Amazon, one-click buy the book, and *poof* it's on your Kindle / iPhone. Very appealing and easy to use for someone who isn't technically inclined -- and barely cares about, let alone performs a detailed analysis of the pros and cons of, various formats.

Or, if we look to recent history: Apple took a lot of grief over its refusal to open up Fairplay and thus limiting access to the iPod. AAC saw little (if any) use in portable devices prior to the iPod; MP3 and, to a lesser extent, WMV were dominant. Yet the iPod still slaughtered the competition despite using an almost unknown format....

Exactly.

As I've said before, today things sell out of hype and convenience to use.

I'll freely admit, convenience is one of the biggest factors in determining what I buy (and many other life decisions) since I'm busy as hell and want to save every second I can.

So the Kindle jumped right out at me with the WiFi and the store etc., and that's going to be a big selling point going forward regardless of formats which the average shopper won't know anything about when buying a device.

Just like people bought iPods and AACs and didn't know there was any difference from MP3 like you say. People just buy a device that's well hyped and easy to use and the Kindle fits that bill and it will take something that does that better to unseat it.

The world wide point is a fair one, but e-Readers are such a small niche (just being bought buy hardcore readers who are tech savvy) that the Kindle could easily take over the market when released in other places.

As could some other device--maybe a multifunction thing like the Apple Tablet if it comes out and takes off.