Publishers Weekly Article: Trends to Watch in 2008

[yvanleterrible]

Does Jobs know how to read?

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

'Course not. His glasses translate text into spoken words, and beam them directly into his corpus callosum.

(Psst! Bribery doesn't work on rich people. Try blackmail.)

[Cthulhu]

For my two cents, this publishing pundit is most likely correct; rather, he and the other members of the publishing industry will ensure that he is correct. Regarding the issue of e-book market share, the venerable format of reading suffers from the "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy imposed by skittish business people. Time and again, it seems that the reason for e-books generating only two percent of the total sales is because only two percent of the books published are available in the format.
Seriously, this just makes me angry; well, no one wants thiproduct that we never advertised, derided in the press, barely made accessible, and priced thrice as high as its competition! This is a rant, but without unscrupulous "rowdy teens" causing music labels to hemorrhage money thanks to the magic bullets of MP3's and the internet, digital music would be languishing in the same manner of e-texts.

@ the person concerned about art books: Microsoft's Surface could suffice to make the whole coffee table the art, and I ultimately hope that colour e-ink will allow for a similar experience, or possibly OLED screens.

@ critics of the high price of hardware (i.e. Kindle, PRS, &tc):
hardware is all ways pricey in the beginning. So long as the content stays reasonable, supply/demand demons will lower the price.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by Cthulhu

@ the person concerned about art books: Microsoft's Surface could suffice to make the whole coffee table the art, and I ultimately hope that colour e-ink will allow for a similar experience, or possibly OLED screens.

Maybe. If you feel like paying for that coffee table sized display. I'll take a coffee table book, thank you. Among other things, I can carry it.

But you won't get satisfactory results on a handheld. The screen is simply too small, and has to be for the device to be a handheld.

Color eInk is in the experimental stage, but I'd guess it's a couple of years away from showing up in a product.

@ critics of the high price of hardware (i.e. Kindle, PRS, &tc):
hardware is all ways pricey in the beginning. So long as the content stays reasonable, supply/demand demons will lower the price.

Largely.

The biggest variable in the cost of a piece of consumer electronics is the debt service on the funding required to build the factory that makes it. The more of a device you make, the smaller a share of the allocated overhead each device bears, and the cheaper you can price it. Ebook readers are largely in the "pilot project" stage, with relatively limited production runs. If they become more mainstream, I expect cheaper pricing.
______
Dennis

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

The biggest variable in the cost of a piece of consumer electronics is the debt service on the funding required to build the factory that makes it. The more of a device you make, the smaller a share of the allocated overhead each device bears, and the cheaper you can price it. Ebook readers are largely in the "pilot project" stage, with relatively limited production runs. If they become more mainstream, I expect cheaper pricing.

Very true. Laptops went through this, as designs (and especially screen technology) morphed and adjusted for more than a decade, and factories had to completely retool every 2-3 years. During that time, you couldn't get a new laptop for less than $2,000. Now that it has largely settled down, you can buy a new laptop for $500.

If we ever settle on an e-book reader architecture and technology that everyone uses, we should see the same economies of scale and price, and readers the size of the PRS-505 coming down to $1-200 (and color at $2-300).

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

Very true. Laptops went through this, as designs (and especially screen technology) morphed and adjusted for more than a decade, and factories had to completely retool every 2-3 years. During that time, you couldn't get a new laptop for less than $2,000. Now that it has largely settled down, you can buy a new laptop for $500.

If we ever settle on an e-book reader architecture and technology that everyone uses, we should see the same economies of scale and price, and readers the size of the PRS-505 coming down to $1-200 (and color at $2-300).

Yep. And the effect ripples through the supply chain.

The factory that actually builds the Sony Reader, or the Kindle, or whichever, is doing final assembly. The component parts come from elsewhere, and the same factors apply to them. The pricing for the component parts is a major factor in the pricing for the completed device.

I believe, for example, that one choke point at the moment is the screens used. Supplies for those have to ramp up. I'd bet on problems sourcing components as part of the reason behind Kindle shortages. Amazon was rightly conservative in their forecasts when ordering the initial production run, but getting more isn't simply a matter of placing an additional order. The contractor who builds them must get the parts to do so, and may need to stand in line on some of them.
______
Dennis

[Cthulhu]

Then the answer is clear:

We must all go buy those cool new e-ink watches.
;-)
In all earnestness, I believe that e-ink will flourish, as other companies/manufacturers realise other implications for the technology, and more people warm to the idea of using it.
Personally, once they have a colour e-ink photo frame for sale bigger than 5"x7", I'll buy it.

As for the surface, its price, portability, &tc, my point is that new technologies mean new ways to do things. I have no coffee table, and no room for one, but I like the idea of artsy things in my house. Now, an OLED super-sized screen with a thumb drive port? Who needs coffee table art then?