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Reload this Page Simpler Probability Puzzle

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View Poll Results: Which is the most probable result?
THH and THT equally likely 14 100.00%
THH 0 0%
THT 0 0%
Voters: 14. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-03-2010, 04:28 AM   #1
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Simpler Probability Puzzle
You toss a coin three times. You toss it fairly — on each toss you have a 50% probability of getting Heads or Tails.

Bearing in mind the previous puzzle, are you more likely to get THH or THT?

Vote! Whoops — I forgot to set a time limit on the poll! I'll post the answer in a couple of days.
Last edited by pdurrant; 08-03-2010 at 04:31 AM.
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Old 08-05-2010, 04:54 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pdurrant View Post
Bearing in mind the previous puzzle, are you more likely to get THH or THT?
Answer:
Spoiler:
Nice to see no-one was fooled by my reference to the previous puzzle, at least as I write this. Well done, everyone!

The answer is, of course, that they are equally likely.

However, if I was to ask, "if you start tossing coins, which sequence is more likely to appear first, THH or THT?", the answer is NOT that they are equally likely to appear, as was shown in the previous puzzle.

An interesting look at probability, I think. Just because combinations of results are equally likely to occur in a set of events that's of the same length as the number of results, that doesn't mean they're equally to occur in a long sequence of events.
Last edited by pdurrant; 08-05-2010 at 05:43 PM.
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Old 08-06-2010, 07:21 AM   #3
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So do we get a treat for getting it right ?
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Old 08-06-2010, 02:59 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Druid_Elf View Post
So do we get a treat for getting it right ?
Yes, the next puzzle is here: https://www.mobileread.com/forums/showthread.php?t=93565
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