Ebook or Pbook?

[VydorScope]

Future is electronic... but that future is far far off I think.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by mr ploppy

Real books still account for 80% of the market, I can't see them going anywhere within our lifetimes.

I can see ebooks being 50% of the market* within ten years, and 80% of the market within twenty years.

*UK market.

[Justin Nemo]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

I can see ebooks being 50% of the market* within ten years, and 80% of the market within twenty years.

*UK market.

But when you consider that 5 years ago ebooks had 0% of the market.................

[gmw]

One problem of participating on online forums is that the membership is skewed to those that use computers on a regular basis. You read on here about people that no longer read pbooks and think pbooks must be dead. But there is a big wide world out there that still includes many people that don't use computers every day, and even if they do, still don't read books off them. My own preference remains pbooks (showing my age?); if I find anything I really like as an ebook I look for it as a pbook to add to my collection.

That ebooks have jumped quickly in a fairly short time only shows a maturing product that is now reaching those people that are inclined to use it. It may even encourage more people to the available technology, but it's not automatically going to make everyone go out and buy a computer just so they can ditch their pbook library.

I think pdurrant's guestimates seem reasonable - I was going to suggest a generation. I think that is what it will take for pbooks fade to objects for collectors and eccentrics.

ETA: By "computer" I mean any of the modern devices on which we read ebooks.

[Moksha]

Originally Posted by Justin Nemo

So what is the future of the written word? The impression I get reading through writer's forums is that “You just aint made it until you're in paper”. Writers still put a lot of emphasis on getting a publishing deal and getting your book in print. Only then do they consider that they have made it.

Is this really how we should be thinking in the 21st century. Isn't paper dead?

Paper is far from dead.

I think at the moment ebooks are seen as just another medium so they're still a part of getting the pbook deal.
As things progress having a pbook will be more of a badge of quality.
The difference between having a pbook or only having an ebook will be kind of like your movie getting a cinema release or going straight to video (download).
Later down the line I think your top authors may get a hardback run but paperbacks will be replaced by ebooks.(except maybe in the third world)
After that who knows?

Hell, we still have records.(for the young uns those are round disks of black plastic that have music etched into them.)

Moksha

[Justin Nemo]

Originally Posted by Moksha

Paper is far from dead.

Hell, we still have records.(for the young uns those are round disks of black plastic that have music etched into them.)

Moksha

Ah how sweet those memories are

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by Moksha

Hell, we still have records.(for the young uns those are round disks of black plastic that have music etched into them.)

You may have them in your collection, and there may be a small number sold as speciality items, but vinyl records are dead.

I expect paper books to hang around a little bit longer than vinyl has, but in twenty years the vast majority of new books will not be available in paper, and those that are will be in fancy collector's editions and very small print runs.

[Penforhire]

Or maybe print on demand (POD) will rise. I see a bright temporary future for that technology. Why have a book store, even for physical books, when a kiosk will do?

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by gmw

ETA: By "computer" I mean any of the modern devices on which we read ebooks.

Originally Posted by Penforhire

Or maybe print on demand (POD) will rise. I see a bright temporary future for that technology. Why have a book store, even for physical books, when a kiosk will do?

Lest we forget, there is one piece of technology, capable of reading ebooks, that is fast on the rise even in developing countries: Cellphones. And villages are learning the value of community computers and other devices, capable of sharing content with all.

I'm not saying things aren't harder in developing countries; just that technology manages to reach further into the poorest nations, becoming easier to get and maintain as it scales down and becomes less expensive. I daresay keeping a cellphone with ebooks on it would be easier than keeping an expensive POD printer running.

Oh, about the comment about print being backwards-compatible: How old is your copy of Macbeth? Print books of old stories are around because they are reprinted. And some of the oldest stories couldn't be read in their original manuscripts by the average reader today, because of the differences in old languages and letters/spellings. Digital texts are much more easily updated with changes in language, spelling and translation.

[mr ploppy]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

You may have them in your collection, and there may be a small number sold as speciality items, but vinyl records are dead.

I don't know what sort of music you like, but all the bands I still follow release vinyl and it's the preferred format for just about everyone I know. I don't really expect that to change until we're all dead. Same goes for books. It's not a nostalgia thing either, vinyl/paper are the better format so neither will die out until a new generation grows up without ever experiencing them. Digital versions are just a compromise between quality and convenience.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by mr ploppy

I don't know what sort of music you like, but all the bands I still follow release vinyl and it's the preferred format for just about everyone I know. I don't really expect that to change until we're all dead. Same goes for books. It's not a nostalgia thing either, vinyl/paper are the better format so neither will die out until a new generation grows up without ever experiencing them. Digital versions are just a compromise between quality and convenience.

This is chiefly due to the resurgence in use of vinyl by VJs. It may be more than a fad, but not by much... and I'm not sure how it equates to print books' longetivity in the digital age.

[mr ploppy]

Originally Posted by Steven Lyle Jordan

This is chiefly due to the resurgence in use of vinyl by VJs. It may be more than a fad, but not by much... and I'm not sure how it equates to print books' longetivity in the digital age.

Like with records, a lot of people still shun digital books because they're inferior to the analogue ones (mainly because of what they read them on). It will take a generation that doesn't have access to the originals to change that. But the young seem to be more interested in reading Facebook status updates than books. That might also be why short books seem to be selling better than long ones. Most of the people who have contacted me say they read them on mobile phones, which probably also has something to do with it. When I first discovered ebooks that didn't exist in any other form I used to print them out.

[VydorScope]

8 Track died, VHS Died, Laser Disk Died, Papyrus Died, and so on... mediums of recording information come and go with time. To think paper books will be around always is likely a mistake. Around in 20 years? I think so. Around in 100? Well I'll be dead and gone and wont care... but probably not any more then 8 tracks are today.

[gmw]

Originally Posted by VydorScope

8 Track died, VHS Died, Laser Disk Died, Papyrus Died, and so on... mediums of recording information come and go with time. To think paper books will be around always is likely a mistake. Around in 20 years? I think so. Around in 100? Well I'll be dead and gone and wont care... but probably not any more then 8 tracks are today.

(Papyrus didn't die, it evolved into pbooks. The better analogy for Papyrus would be the various ebook formats that have fallen out of favour.)

What hastens the death of things like 8 track is the equipment that the end-user needs to obtain to use such products. As demand drops so the cost of such equipment rises out of proportion until it is no longer viable for anyone but specialist collectors. The fact that pbooks need no special end-user technology means, I think, that they will not die out so quickly.

There may still come a time when pbook demand falls so far that print equipment used by publishers/printers becomes more expensive to run, pushing the price of production up so that the cost of pbooks will rise ... and so on. So just as ebooks have taken a jump early in their maturation, so the end of the pbook may dive when it reaches some threshold.

There are some other factors that seems likely to effect the life of pbooks. Those books referred to as "coffee-table" books - big glossy photo books and the like, seem likely to be difficult to replace by electronic means for some time.

... And then there are the various waiting rooms around the world: what will adorn the racks and tables of such rooms in another generation? Will dentist waiting rooms be laid out like the flight-deck of an aeroplane so each patient can read the screen embedded in the head-rest in front of him? Or will paper magazines still be printed for just such purposes? While ever there are some mass printing demands I suspect pbooks will remain available, albeit in an ever more specialist form/volume.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by mr ploppy

Like with records, a lot of people still shun digital books because they're inferior to the analogue ones (mainly because of what they read them on).

I disagree completely with that... but won't argue the point. That is a matter of personal choice.