Prediction for 2011 from Smashwords Founder

hidari · 12-30-2010, 06:57 AM

http://www.mediabistro.com/galleycat...shwords_b18421

Discuss:

kennyc · 12-30-2010, 07:10 AM

I think he's pretty much right on....only quibble might be #8 because the distribution rights, like DRM is still going to be fought against tooth and nail by the existing big publishers.

Ravensknight · 12-30-2010, 07:37 AM

#7-Customer is King.
I certainly hope so.
I just know that right now, as an ebook reader, I am NOT king. I am somebody who is to be mistrusted, maligned and hassled. All because I BUY books. Here's hoping common sense can start permeating the publishers...

kennyc · 12-30-2010, 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

#7-Customer is King.
I certainly hope so.
I just know that right now, as an ebook reader, I am NOT king. I am somebody who is to be mistrusted, maligned and hassled. All because I BUY books. Here's hoping common sense can start permeating the publishers...

I'm afraid that may not happen any time soon for the established publishers, but what is happening as indicated by the article is that an alternative publication channel is being established and if the existing publishers do not get on board they will become as the dinosaurs before them ... fossils!

bbqncigars · 12-30-2010, 08:08 AM

I'm hoping that numbers 6-8 are realized, but his last point is almost a sure bet. Methinks that the big publishers will hang on to DRM until it drags their bottom line down to painful depths.

Lemurion · 12-30-2010, 08:32 AM

I have issues with number four, myself. The authors who really benefit from electronic self-publishing are previously published ones, who already have a following. They can leverage the reduced costs to service an existing market in volumes that aren't economical for a commercial publisher.

The problem indie authors face is that while there is a market for indie books in general, they generally come in without an existing market for their work in particular. No one's looking for books by "Adric I. Author," and so their sales are going to be very much lower than the backlist books of "Marianna C. Midlist" which she's put on the same site.

He's ignoring the fundamental problem of obscurity, which is the single biggest issue indie authors face.

kennyc · 12-30-2010, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemurion

I have issues with number four, myself. The authors who really benefit from electronic self-publishing are previously published ones, who already have a following. They can leverage the reduced costs to service an existing market in volumes that aren't economical for a commercial publisher.

The problem indie authors face is that while there is a market for indie books in general, they generally come in without an existing market for their work in particular. No one's looking for books by "Adric I. Author," and so their sales are going to be very much lower than the backlist books of "Marianna C. Midlist" which she's put on the same site.

He's ignoring the fundamental problem of obscurity, which is the single biggest issue indie authors face.

Very true.

dsvick · 12-30-2010, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by from the article

...celebrity drivel from Snooki, Justin Bieber and the Kardashians.

I agree with most of what he is saying, I only have a bit of a problem with numbers 5 and 6, while they may not be completely mutually exclusive, they certainly are pretty close. If the prices are falling and the royalties to the authors are increasing then the profits for the publisher must be falling. If that is the case then what is being lost - editing? marketing?

Also, if royalties are rising but prices are falling I have to wonder if that will really mean anything for the author in the long run. After all a 10% royalty on a $20 book is the same as a 25% on an $8 book - granted they may sell more books at $8.

ProfCrash · 12-30-2010, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kennyc

I think he's pretty much right on....only quibble might be #8 because the distribution rights, like DRM is still going to be fought against tooth and nail by the existing big publishers.

I think that Number 8 is going to be a problem because there has to be a change in the law and how contracts are written in most countries before we see geo restrictions fade away.

Steven Lyle Jordan · 12-30-2010, 09:33 AM

I'd amend #2: It won't be agents writing the next chapter of ebooks, it'll be marketers; those who help writers who can produce good work, but need help piercing the fog of obscurity and getting noticed in the market.

I suspect a lot of agents will either become, or be replaced by, marketers who will serve the authors directly, and offer many of the promotional services that publishers claim is their primary service.

jasonkchapman · 12-30-2010, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steven Lyle Jordan

I'd amend #2: It won't be agents writing the next chapter of ebooks, it'll be marketers; those who help writers who can produce good work, but need help piercing the fog of obscurity and getting noticed in the market.

I suspect a lot of agents will either become, or be replaced by, marketers who will serve the authors directly, and offer many of the promotional services that publishers claim is their primary service.

I'd argue that to a large extent it's marketers calling the shots now. The excess weight given a book's marketability over its quality skews the market toward known names and celebrity tripe.

ficbot · 12-30-2010, 10:18 AM

I think multi-device platforms are going to become a bigger issue for customers. Kobo, Kindle, Zinio and others who have apps for multiple devices will see their profits rise compared to something like an i-app. I remember paying for an iOS cookbook app and they have just released, at double the price, a new 'iPad-only' version. So if you bought the first one and want the content to look reasonable on the iPad (using the 2X view distorts the text like crazy) you not only have to pay again, but you have to pay double what you paid last time. Never again will I buy a book app!

SlowRain · 12-30-2010, 10:19 AM

I only skimmed the article, but I have an issue with the marketing comment in #7. I know of no industry where marketing doesn't dictate what people buy. I don't see the publishing industry successfully breaking that trend. The publishing industry lags every other industry.

mr ploppy · 12-30-2010, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsvick

If the prices are falling and the royalties to the authors are increasing then the profits for the publisher must be falling. If that is the case then what is being lost - editing? marketing?
.

Publishers wouldn't need as many staff or freelancers. Marketing was left to the writer long ago, except for the A listers. Proof reading also seems to have been delegated to fans with advance reader copies.

leebase · 12-30-2010, 11:56 AM

What seems to be missing from the analysis, IMHO, are two things.

Ebooks don't solve obscurity. The fact that anybody can publish an ebook cheaply means that obscurity is going to INCREASE, not decrease. I mean, yeah, somebody can now find you on the internet -- but they can find 100,000 other indie authors as well. Thus the value of a publisher with the ability to market is going to increase, not decrease. Internet social network marketing is still just marketing. Professional marketing efforts are still going to be quite valuable.

The profits from new release hardbacks are something author's want too, not just publishers. I really doubt publishers are going to stand by and pay authors what they do and allow the authors to undercut their hard book prices with ebooks the publishers get nothing from. So for authors who wish to go with publishers for their paper books, I really doubt they'll have the option to go with self published ebooks.

So that leaves such authors choosing ebook only -- and I really doubt that is a recipe for success for the major authors.

Lee

12-30-2010, 06:57 AM	#1
hidari MR Drone Posts: 1,613 Karma: 15612282 Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: DRONEZONE Device: PB360+, Huawei MP5, Libra H20	Prediction for 2011 from Smashwords Founder http://www.mediabistro.com/galleycat...shwords_b18421 Discuss:

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12-30-2010, 07:10 AM	#2
kennyc The Dank Side of the Moon Posts: 35,872 Karma: 118716293 Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Denver, CO Device: Kindle2; Kindle Fire	I think he's pretty much right on....only quibble might be #8 because the distribution rights, like DRM is still going to be fought against tooth and nail by the existing big publishers.

12-30-2010, 07:37 AM	#3
Ravensknight Serpent Rider Posts: 1,123 Karma: 10219804 Join Date: Jun 2009 Device: Sony 350; Nook STR; Oasis	#7-Customer is King. I certainly hope so. I just know that right now, as an ebook reader, I am NOT king. I am somebody who is to be mistrusted, maligned and hassled. All because I BUY books. Here's hoping common sense can start permeating the publishers...

12-30-2010, 08:08 AM	#5
bbqncigars PDA dino Posts: 80 Karma: 1527072 Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Iowa, USA Device: Palm IIIx, Rooted NC, Voyages(2)	I'm hoping that numbers 6-8 are realized, but his last point is almost a sure bet. Methinks that the big publishers will hang on to DRM until it drags their bottom line down to painful depths.

12-30-2010, 08:32 AM	#6
Lemurion eReader Posts: 2,750 Karma: 4968470 Join Date: Aug 2007 Device: Note 5; PW3; Nook HD+; ChuWi Hi12; iPad	I have issues with number four, myself. The authors who really benefit from electronic self-publishing are previously published ones, who already have a following. They can leverage the reduced costs to service an existing market in volumes that aren't economical for a commercial publisher. The problem indie authors face is that while there is a market for indie books in general, they generally come in without an existing market for their work in particular. No one's looking for books by "Adric I. Author," and so their sales are going to be very much lower than the backlist books of "Marianna C. Midlist" which she's put on the same site. He's ignoring the fundamental problem of obscurity, which is the single biggest issue indie authors face.

12-30-2010, 09:33 AM	#10
Steven Lyle Jordan Grand Sorcerer Posts: 8,478 Karma: 5171130 Join Date: Jan 2006 Device: none	I'd amend #2: It won't be agents writing the next chapter of ebooks, it'll be marketers; those who help writers who can produce good work, but need help piercing the fog of obscurity and getting noticed in the market. I suspect a lot of agents will either become, or be replaced by, marketers who will serve the authors directly, and offer many of the promotional services that publishers claim is their primary service.

12-30-2010, 10:18 AM	#12
ficbot Wizard Posts: 2,409 Karma: 4132096 Join Date: Sep 2008 Device: Kindle Paperwhite/iOS Kindle App	I think multi-device platforms are going to become a bigger issue for customers. Kobo, Kindle, Zinio and others who have apps for multiple devices will see their profits rise compared to something like an i-app. I remember paying for an iOS cookbook app and they have just released, at double the price, a new 'iPad-only' version. So if you bought the first one and want the content to look reasonable on the iPad (using the 2X view distorts the text like crazy) you not only have to pay again, but you have to pay double what you paid last time. Never again will I buy a book app!

12-30-2010, 10:19 AM	#13
SlowRain Addict Posts: 311 Karma: 9553 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: a Canadian expat in Taiwan Device: HTC 10, Asus Phonepad	I only skimmed the article, but I have an issue with the marketing comment in #7. I know of no industry where marketing doesn't dictate what people buy. I don't see the publishing industry successfully breaking that trend. The publishing industry lags every other industry.

12-30-2010, 11:56 AM	#15
leebase Karma Kameleon Posts: 2,934 Karma: 26616647 Join Date: Aug 2009 Device: iPad Mini, iPhone X, Kindle Fire Tab HD 8, Walmart Onn	What seems to be missing from the analysis, IMHO, are two things. Ebooks don't solve obscurity. The fact that anybody can publish an ebook cheaply means that obscurity is going to INCREASE, not decrease. I mean, yeah, somebody can now find you on the internet -- but they can find 100,000 other indie authors as well. Thus the value of a publisher with the ability to market is going to increase, not decrease. Internet social network marketing is still just marketing. Professional marketing efforts are still going to be quite valuable. The profits from new release hardbacks are something author's want too, not just publishers. I really doubt publishers are going to stand by and pay authors what they do and allow the authors to undercut their hard book prices with ebooks the publishers get nothing from. So for authors who wish to go with publishers for their paper books, I really doubt they'll have the option to go with self published ebooks. So that leaves such authors choosing ebook only -- and I really doubt that is a recipe for success for the major authors. Lee

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