01-17-2013, 04:08 PM | #106 | |||||||
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Where else could the sources have gotten the 19 million figure but from an actual Apple order? Figures are precise. Words often are not. Quote:
The reason for doing the cuts is not a factual assertion, and I never presented it as such. I said "seems to indicate" ... what about that phrase is confusing to you? And, as far as I recall, none of the reports are making factual assertions as to the reasons for the cuts. They are speculating. The factual assertions are in regard to the cuts and, in one report, the specific amounts. Quote:
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But later I cut that back to 10. Now read what the baker said about my order. It is exactly analogous to this situation and how the NY Times reporter phrased the 19 million Apple screen order in his article. I'm going to assume that because you said nothing specifically about the baker's statement, it didn't jump out at you as sounding wrong or funny. It sounded perfectly fine to you too within that sequence of events. Which was my whole point about the pie analogy, Quote:
Not sure if "verified" is the correct word, though. Maybe "confirmed" is a better one. But the point is, it wasn't just everyone repeating one story. There were two stories using independent sources to report on something. --Pat Last edited by PatNY; 01-17-2013 at 04:18 PM. |
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01-17-2013, 04:46 PM | #107 | ||||
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We don't know that it is correct. It could be just made up. It could be someone misunderstanding what they have overheard. It could be that they were originally going to order a large amount in January and less in February and March (as you suggested in your post), and then decided to level it out across all three, but only the January decrease is being reported, not the February and March increases. It could be that if Apple place concrete orders for X, they have the right to reserve Y more units of production at no up front cost, and what is being reported as 'ordered' is X+Y, not X. We just don't know. That has been my point the whole time. There are no facts here, only assertions. Quote:
That is the point. It is not a fact that they have cut orders, it is an assertion that they have cut orders. Quote:
It isn't a fact. It is an assertion, as you have just said. Quote:
That isn't quite: "independently verified and repeated by almost all major news outlets. " is it? And the two stories have different numbers, one of which (65 million), you don't believe either. This is getting much more nitpicky that it would ever be in real life, and I doubt either of us care about it as much as it must seem to anyone following these posts, we would probably both have gotten bored and gone off to get something to eat by now I'm fundamentally mistrustful and cynical of anonymous sources and analyst reports, so I prefer to just ignore them until some real news is available. I suspect neither of us are going to convince the other, and we are just going to go in circles from here on. Over to you for a last word. |
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01-17-2013, 06:06 PM | #108 |
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01-17-2013, 06:46 PM | #109 | ||||||
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And, yes, we don't really know if it is correct. But isn't that the case for a great number of things we hear and read about? I take everything at face value if it's widely reported by multiple established and reliable media outlets and unless there is something inherently fishy about the story or someone reputable has challenged that information. I don't simply discount things because I don't like the implications of what the story might mean -- which seems to be the case with you and this story. If you were to come across reports in the WSJ and the NYTs exactly similar to these, but they instead say Apple doubled original orders of LCD screens, and the information is coming from multiple supply chain sources, are you really going to question the validity of the reports the way you are doing here? Are you going to dissect every phrase by the reporter and look for areas to nitpick? Somehow I don't think you would. You can't have it both ways. You can't pick and choose the information to believe according to how it fits your point of view. As for something being made up or a lie, well unless you point to a logical explanation why that would be so, then in the absence of any sound reasoning, I would say that's unlikely. And if it were a pure lie -- and far off the mark -- then Apple likely would have corrected the misinformation by now. Quote:
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Ok, let me correct myself then: "But the information that they cut the number previously ordered seems to indicate that demand may be lower than they expected." Better? Quote:
And I never meant that almost all major outlets independently verified the story. That almost never happens with most news stories. It's an somewhat illogical interpretation. But I can understand the source of your confusion. This is my original statement: "No more blind faith than anyone else who takes at face value a story that has been independently verified and repeated by almost all major news outlets." To be clearer, I should have placed the modifier differently: "No more blind faith than anyone else who takes at face value a story that has been repeated by almost all major news outlets and independently verified." As for the 65 million number, no, it's not that I don't believe it. I believe in that case the number, which appears in only one report, was used in a vague manner by the writer, so it remains unclear what he was talking about. It can be interpreted various ways. If he intended it to mean ALL screen orders in a quarter, then that number is very believable. Quote:
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If you say no, then I gather when I read this forum in the future I will never come across a post of yours citing a report that is based on anonymous sources, correct? As I said above, I will take at face value any report which meets the specified criteria. Whether I like the implications or not. --Pat |
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01-17-2013, 06:53 PM | #110 | |
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--Pat |
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01-17-2013, 10:20 PM | #111 |
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I think most people don't understand is that apple plays and manages the media and us thru these negative stories. A month a go lets say apple sales were expected to be 100 now they got this story released that apple cut its orders in half. So now people will bring down their expectations to about 50. Then when Apple releases it numbers next week the actual sales will be around 70-80 so instead of apple performing below expectation every news paper will be like apple blew thru its expected figures and they will make a huge deal about it.
But in reality those same figures a month ago would have had a negative effect people perception on apple. |
01-17-2013, 11:07 PM | #112 |
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Gotta love these anti-Apple threads... whatever comes up can get manipulated to their point of view... just like the conspiracy nuts... wonder who'll be next should they ever get their wishes met and Apple disappear... Good entertainment though even if short on actual discussion as opposed to dogma
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01-18-2013, 04:36 AM | #113 | ||
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And the story hasn't been verified. You have anonymous sources telling Nikkei that Apple places orders for the whole quarter, and you have anonymous sources telling the analyst that Apple places orders for each month. The stories contradict each other. Quote:
And back to why the rumors are negative. It is possible that Apple doesn't think that it can sell more than 11 million iPhone5s per month after the winter holidays: Apple is DOOMED!!!!!!!! |
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01-18-2013, 05:13 AM | #114 | |
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That is what usually happens when you are on top, you have no way to go but down. |
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01-18-2013, 05:23 AM | #115 | |
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01-18-2013, 05:40 AM | #116 | |||
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If you are referring to the 65 million number mentioned by Nikkei in one of the original reports, well that could be a result of sloppy reporting or simply an error. It doesn't mean that the meat of the story -- the cuts of roughly 50% -- is incorrect. BTW, analysts have been reporting since December of component cuts by Apple. So this story isn't as new as the recent news would suggest. Maybe it was simply not picked up by major media outlets in the past OR the analysts' reports lacked the specificity that the recent news stories have. Quote:
--Pat |
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01-18-2013, 05:46 AM | #117 | |
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01-18-2013, 05:59 AM | #118 | |||
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I do think there is something fishy about the story, as I have repeatedly said, I don't think the 'pre-cut' numbers make sense. You might disagree, and that is perfectly reasonable, but at least accept that that is my position. If the story had said that they had originally ordered ~40 million for the quarter, and then cut that back, that would be believable. Apple's dominance of high-end smartphones will continue to reduce and reduce as Android increases, that is clear to everybody, it doesn't need rumours like this to show it. I've already said that my guess is that their Q2 sales will be below the 14 million estimate, so exactly what implication is it that you think I don't like? I'm hardly bullish on the future of the iPhone. Quote:
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Last edited by murraypaul; 01-18-2013 at 06:14 AM. |
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01-18-2013, 06:13 AM | #119 | ||
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So if you saw a report that simply said Apple doubled its initial order of 11 million LCD displays in January (not mentioning a quarter) -- and the source was anonymous in the supply chain -- would you pooh-pooh such a report as you are doing here? Quote:
--Pat |
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01-18-2013, 06:22 AM | #120 | |||
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Either the numbers say that Apple originally ordered twice what seems to me to be a plausible sales estimate, in which case I don't believe them, or they say nothing at all, in which case what is the point of discussing them? Quote:
Again, as I have said all along, my issues with the story is not that Apple will only be selling ~30 million iPhones, it is that they would ever have expected to sell double that. Quote:
I think Apple products are good for some people, and bad for others. In the small tablet market, for example, the Nexus 7 would be a better choice than the iPad Mini for most consumers. I don't feel that Apple's success or failure in any way impacts on my self-worth, and don't really understand the fan mentality that does approach things in such ways, whether in sports, politics, electronics or any other arena. I have an iPod Touch and an iPad because at the time I bought them they were the best products on the market for my needs. I think that is still probably true of the iPod Touch. The iPad, I'm not sure, the new high-res Samsung would definitely be a strong competitor. |
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